June 6, 2014

Darren Kennedy

2014-06-06

 

There was no hockey on last night. Which in most cases would stink. But seeing as I've developed a new found addiction to "Friday Night Lights" it wasn't so bad. Yes, the show ended in 2011, but I just came across it on Netflix a couple weeks ago. Since then it's been one ongoing marathon, intermittently separated by sleep, eating, and ya know, work.  

 

I can't remember the last time I actually watched a show during its scheduled, weekly timeslot. These days (and I know I'm not alone here) I just wait until the season, or in some cases entire series, is complete and then watch it all at once. Sports really is the final frontier of "appointment" viewing. I'll change my schedule to catch game two of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Whereas I don't really care if I miss episode three of Mad Men or whatever.

 

 

Advertisers are catching on to this and between the Dodgers local television deal, Rogers partnering with the NHL, and the Clippers being sold for north of two billion, it appears that heady days are on the horizon for major sports leagues. My guess is that the NHL cap ceiling, plotted over the next five years on a graph, is going to look a lot like a hockey stick.

 

On to today's ramblings…

 

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Drew Doughty is trolling us this year. He's like that guy in the forums who starts a thread entitled "Crosby Kind of Sucks" just to watch the ensuing mayhem. He's a bad man. First it was four goals and six points in only six games for Canada at the Sochi Olympics. Now he has gone off and posted 17 points through 22 playoff games. The kind of numbers that elite fantasy defencemen put together.

 

But he's not elite (at least not in your pool).

 

After that incredible 2009-10 season in which he had 59 points as a 20 year old we proclaimed him the most valuable blueliner in all the land. Since then it has been heartbreak season after heartbreak season (unless of course you're from Los Angeles). I can't — I won't, do it all over again. Until Sutter is no longer coaching there is little evidence to believe Doughty can sustain production equal to that of a top five guy. Regardless of how these playoffs turn out I'll have him sitting firmly behind the likes of Karlsson, Subban, Byfuglien, Letang, Yandle, and Weber in my draft rankings.   

 

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Lately I've been spending WAY too much time on ExtraSkater.com. It's like Toys R Us for adults. Although I still rather like Toys R Us too. One area that's been great, even though it isn't that advanced per se, is their separation of primary and secondary assists. We know by looking at some terrific research by Eric Tulsky that secondary assists aren't overly predictable from year-to-year. If a guy posts 30 one season he's just as likely to end with 10 the next.

 

Knowing this we can be on the lookout for seasons that may have been artificially inflated. Poking around the numbers I was blown away by Niklas Kronwall. This year was, by most accounts, a stellar season. He had 49 points, 10th among defencemen, and a massive uptick on his last full 82 game total of 36 back in 2011-12.

 

When we delve further into the numbers it gets a bit murky. Of his 49 points 41 were assists, with 28 being registered as secondary markers. Conversely, in 2011-12, he only had 16 secondary assists. That's a significant discrepancy. I'm sure there were other factors at play – different partner, increased offensive deployment…etc. We'd have to take a deeper look to fully understand what is at play. However, on the surface, I'm beginning to question exactly how strong of a season it was. If his secondary assists regress we could be looking at a 40 point defencemen. That's not horrible, not by any stretch, but it will be a painful experience if you select him in the early rounds.

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It's a great tool. I recommend taking a closer look at it over the summer when you start to conduct some pre-draft research (as if you haven't already started).

 

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Absolutely unreal stat that jumped out at me – Justin Williams has a points per 60 minutes rate of 3.17 in the post season, highest of any player remaining. To put in perspective just how ludicrous that is – Crosby's P/60 during the regular season was 2.61. Combine that with this mythical "clutch" kool-aid (ah heck what do I know, maybe he is clutch!) everyone has been consuming the past few days and you have a recipe for a guy that will be overvalued next season. He's a reliable 50 to 55 point, 230 to 240 shot man. Draft for that. Hope for more.

 

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I have this weird thing where I absolutely fall for aging superstars. Something about guys at the end of their careers, the finality of it all, it gets me every time. Lately it has been Joe Thornton. I know he's only turning 35 and should have a few solid years left, but it feels like we're awfully close to the final act. After the crushing disappointment of losing to the Kings we were treated to another full media cycle of "Joe can't win the big game" and "is it time to take away Thornton's 'C'?" We're too hard on Thornton and he deserves more recognition than people outside of San Jose give him. I recently wrote about it over at McKeen's.

 

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I don't like to point this out, especially since the entire hockey world is in the midst of an Anze Kopitar love-in, but what the heck is going on with his shot totals? Ever since the Kings became a more defensive squad we know that Kopitar's game has become Selke worthy, resulting his shot totals dropping from a reliable 230 to 240 all the way down to 200. Now, 22 games into the playoffs, he's sitting at 40 shots, which is equivalent to 149 over 82 games. It's a small sample size, yet this one still bothers me. He doesn't have the peripheral stats of a Getzlaf to pull off terrifyingly low shot totals while remaining a valued commodity. It's something to keep an eye on heading into 2014-15.

 

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2014 NHL commercials have left a little bit to be desired. I enjoy a good montage as much as the next guy, but this year hasn't been quite as moving as past playoffs. For me, there is nothing better than their "no words" spot from a few years ago. Unless you're a robot, try watching this without wiping away at least one tear.  

 

 

Darren Kennedy is a contributor for Dobber Hockey and Mckeen's, you can find him on twitter @fantasyhockeydk. Apparently Nikita Filatov was NOT the next Pavel Bure.  

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