June 16, 2014

Dobber

2014-06-16

My eighth annual Prospects Report is now updated and put to bed. Feel free to download it again and get Brendan’s mock draft, and the 10 bonus profiles. Update: There was a Ryan Donato profile (’14 draftees) that was missed being put in – I put it in. So this afternoon marks the final Prospects Report update. Sorry for the inconvenience

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Some news from Bob McKenzie on Twitter this morning:

Ottawa apparently offered three years, $10 million to Ales Hemsky and he rejected it and will be going to the FA market.

Mike Cammalleri and Calgary are still talking contract and McKenzie thinks that term is the hold-up, not the dollars. I like Cammalleri, but not for what Calgary is doing. They need a clean slate (and first overall next year).

The Avalanche are shopping PA Parenteau, which is not a surprise because I had the feeling almost by the second week last season that he was not a Patrick Roy player. The Penguins would be a good fit, as he would play with one of the big guns and have little responsibility beyond scoring and keeping up.

Columbus is still looking at trading RJ Umberger, but may have to buy him out. He does not want to play for them anymore. In my books, he has little fantasy value regardless of which team he goes to (although the buzz from a trade to Pittsburgh would make him a huge ‘sell high’)

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And some news from the forum – Oscar Moller could not come to an agreement with the Kings and will remain in Europe barring a dramatic turnaround in discussions.

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Michel Therrien is not going to be a lame duck coach in 2014-15. You knew he was going to be signed this summer. You knew that, after he took the Habs so deep into the playoffs, that he was looking at three years minimum for an extension. So his getting four years surprised no one. Now, the odds of him seeing that contract through as head coach are somewhere between slim and none. But the contract had to be offered. And accepted. I think he can get one more really good year out of this team before he starts to lose the room in 2016-17. I’d be surprised if he’s still the coach after 2017-18 is complete.

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This year’s arbitration deadline for clubs was Sunday at 5pm ET and the Jets elected to file for arbitration for Michael Frolik. His cap hit last season was $2.3 million and he had 42 points in 81 games. He’s in that “young and with potential, but unproven” area that often leads to struggles with a getting a contract done. So the Jets eliminated that from happening.

TSN also reports that the Avalanche have filed for arbitration on Ryan O’Reilly – who was an example of what can happen with the above “young and with potential, but unproven” two offseasons ago. He made $6.5 million last season.

Teams can still negotiate with those players, and if it goes to arbitration the award will be at minimum 85% of what they made last year, per Cap Geek.

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The compliance buyout window opens today. If you recall, each team gets two “freebies” between this summer and last summer to get out of their worst contracts. Last year, Vinny Lecavalier, Rick DiPietro, Ilya Bryzgalov and Mikhail Grabovski were bought out, along with 12 others. Per James Mirtle, via the above link, four teams have used both of theirs – Chicago, Montreal, Philly and Toronto.

Here is what Mirtle labels “slam dunk” buyouts:

Ville Leino (three years left, $4.5 million each)

Brad Richards

Martin Havlat

Jordin Tootoo

Ryan Malone

I’m not sure Richards is a “slam dunk”, but it’s definitely the right move to make and in my opinion if the Rangers only do one move all summer and that move is buy out Brad Richards, well, the team improves tremendously. You would have Derek Stepan, Derrick Brassard and J.T. Miller as your 1-2-3 centermen.

Richards had just two points in his last 10 games.

Other candidates: David Booth, Erik Cole, Anton Volchenkov.

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More interesting stuff from Mirtle:

The Flyers rather quietly re-signed defenceman Kimmo Timonen on Friday, but what was more noteworthy than his return at age 39 was the unique structure of the deal. Timonen will get only $2-million in base salary next season on a one-year deal, but he can essentially double his contract with some easy-to-earn games played bonuses.

More and more, teams are using what's known as the bonus cushion for older players like this, as it allows them to exceed the cap (by up to 7.5 per cent) when these veterans earn a portion of salary in bonuses. For every dollar teams go over the cap, however, that comes off their limit the following season.

At least three teams had huge overages this season that will hurt them in free agency and beyond. The Bruins, Devils and Red Wings are all believed to have exceeded the cap by at least $3-million primarily due to bonuses for Jarome Iginla, Jaromir Jagr and Daniel Alfredsson.

The one thing all three had in common is they were 35 or older and on one-year deals, which is the cut-off for allowing these kinds of "performance" bonuses. What these contracts really are is a type of gamble where a GM can use some of next season's payroll for a small advantage in the current year, but they only make sense for teams like Boston that are contending for a Cup. For New Jersey and Detroit, these were ill-advised bets that will leave them with substantially less to spend next season.

So…the GM’s who agree to these deals are looking out for their jobs in the here and now. They’ll worry about next year next year. Reminds me of politicians.

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Still with the Mirtle article, it looks like the NHLPA is angling to have the NHL’s new deal with Rogers in Canada to be included in the calculations for next season’s salary cap since it’s such a big one-time increase. Right now we’re looking at around $70 million as the cap. Include this deal and that number could jump by quite a bit. Just the GM’s, ownership and players looking to shoot themselves in the foot and ensure another lockout when the CBA expires.

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Calgary has apparently made a pitch for Jason Spezza. Hudler, Backlund, Wideman…picks…could be in the mix?

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The Oilers have signed 22-year-old free agent Finn Iiro Pakarinen to a contract. Pakarinen scored 20 goals for HIFK in the SM-Liiga, which was good for second on his team and eighth (tied) in the league. He was drafted in the seventh round of 2011 by Florida, but wasn’t signed to a contract. He’s a sniper on the wing, which the Oilers can use in a secondary capacity, but he’ll need some AHL time. I’m guessing that if he has a strong camp he’ll be up and down NHL/AHL in the year ahead. Per Cap Geek, it’s a two-year, two-way deal.

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Canes Country takes an interesting look at the Justin Williams trade of yesteryear. It was a three-way deal that sent Patrick O’Sullivan to Edmonton, Williams to LA and Erik Cole to Carolina. Two Cups and a Conn Smythe…

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Alec Martinez – mic’d up – when he scores the 2OT GWG. A great listen. Just the guys going nuts, but still a great listen:

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Tyler Toffoli is trying to talk to his dad on the phone…but his dad is apparently busy running up and down the street!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WSH Players
24.0 ALIAKSEI PROTAS CONNOR MCMICHAEL PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS
20.8 TOM WILSON DYLAN STROME ANDREW MANGIAPANE
13.6 IVAN MIROSHNICHENKO BRANDON DUHAIME NIC DOWD

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