June 29, 2013

Thomas Drance

2014-06-29

It was an interesting NHL draft this weekend, albeit one marked with a bit less player movement than expected.

 

The price of trading into the first round proved particularly exorbitant on Friday. To wit: Buffalo Sabres general manager Tim Murray was unable to move three second round picks for a first, Bryan Murray couldn’t get a first for Jason Spezza, and obviously the 10th overall pick was never on the table for a former Selke winner like Ryan Kesler. If that seems a bit odd, it is, especially for a draft class that wasn’t too highly thought of until a couple of months ago (a host of stellar performances at the U18s really changed the way some of the top prospects in this draft were viewed, I think).

 

Are NHL teams in the salary cap era coming to a more NFL-style understanding of the importance of restocking the cupboard at the draft? 

 

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Here’s my list of 3 winners and 3 losers from the draft. Included among the winners: St. Louis, Tampa, Phoenix. 

 

I loved what the Blues did, snagging two exceptionally talented offensive players in Robby Fabbri and Ivan Barbashev between picks No. 20 and No. 35 overall. Barbashev had the fourth highest assist rate of first-time draft eligible CHL forwards and the only guys ahead of him (Leon Draisaitl, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett) were drafted in the top-five.

 

Fabbri meanwhile scored the second most even-strength goals among CHL draft eligibles, behind only Jake Virtanen, and had the second best five-on-five goal differential, behind only Nikolaj Ehlers. So, yeah, those guys represents excellent value. I also really liked the Jaedon Descheneau pick, especially that late in the draft.

 

I was similarly impressed by what the Tampa Bay Lightning accomplished this weekend, and think Steve Yzerman was especially smart to overlook some of the characater red flags draped about defenseman Anthony DeAngelo. DeAngelo might be a dick, and obviously his persistent slurring of teammates is a bad look (even for a teenager), but on talent, he’s clearly a top-5 player in this draft class. His offensive profile jumps right off the page, especially when compared with the other highly regarded defenders in this class… 

 

Yzerman also traded out of the first round, picked up an early second round pick which he used to pick a Czech defenseman (the Lightning have done well scouting the Czech Republic in the Yzerman era) and netted an additional third-round pick for his trouble. That pick became Brayden Point, who might be the steal of the draft.

 

Point scored 90+ points in the WHL last season on a Moose Jaw Warriors team that just barely scored more than 200 goals. He finished the season 36 points ahead of his next closest teammate. I don’t care if he’s 5-foot-2, this guy fills the net, has always dominated his age level and shouldn’t have been on the board in the 70s.

 

Finally, I loved the Coyotes draft, so they’re my third winner just narrowly edging out the Anaheim Ducks.

 

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The Ducks obviously made out like bandits in the Kesler trade, but using the tenth overall pick on Nick Ritchie (not a huge fan) and their two seconds on a couple of very raw projects – Marcus Pettersson is a 160 pound defenseman so he’s years away, while Brandon Montour changed positions this past year – dropped them behind the Coyotes in my opinion. Don Maloney and co. just found some very intriguing pieces all throughout the draft, in particular Dysin Mayo in the 5th round. 

 

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By selecting Barbashev, the Blues not only added a top-10 offensive talent, but they united super bros and former Moncton Wildcats teammates Barbashev and Dmitrij Jaskin. Based on their strong selfie game and general joie de vivre, Jaskin and Barbashev have a chance to be the Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen of hockey. 

 

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The Coyotes probably needed to be big winners at the draft, since they’re poised to be big losers in free agency. Blasting Mike Ribeiro the way Maloney did isn’t going to make it easier to reel in big fish this summer. Also, it would seem as if none of Phoenix’s pending unrestricted free agents are anywhere close to re-signing

 

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So the Canucks moved Ryan Kesler at the draft and I thought the package they netted was generally pretty weak. Yeah Nick Bonino outperformed Kesler offensively a year ago, but he had an elevated PDO and got a tonne of power-play time with the Ducks first unit. Realistically he’s a 26-year-old depth forward who is what he is and probably isn’t much more than a 35-40 point guy consistently. Luca Sbisa meanwhile is an expensive third-pairing defender and future non-tender player. The 24th pick is a whole lot less valuable than the 10th overall pick.

 

Basically the Ducks hosed the Canucks in this deal, though in fairness to new Canucks management, their hands were substantially tied. 

 

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So how does this trade impact Kesler’s fantasy value? I’m not sure it does much, honestly. Kesler will surely have better players to play with (Andrew Cogliano and someone young and talented), but he’s also likely to continue to handle a big defensive burden. The Ducks don’t exactly have a Jarrett Stoll or another third-line center ready to jump in and handle the tough minutes and soak up defensive zone starts, so Kesler will probably continue to be used as a two-way ace.

 

The power-play is where things get a bit interesting. Kesler’s power-play production atrophied last season, as the Canucks’ five-on-four unit couldn’t capitalize to save their collective lives. Still, he’s an excellent and efficient goal scorer with the man-advantage. The question I have is: where does Kesler fit in on the Ducks power-play? Bonino was insanely productive for the Ducks at five-on-four and played often on the point, but he’s a left-handed shot well suited to playing off of a couple of righties like Perry and Getzlaf. Kesler is a third right-handed shot, so where does he fit in? On the left point? 

 

If the Ducks can calibrate their power-play and get Kesler to fit in naturally, he should be able to easily replace Bonino’s offense. I’m a bit skeptical though.

 

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On Friday the Canucks, easily the busiest team at this year’s draft, traded out from under Jason Garrison’s weighty contract and chronic groin issues, recouping a second round pick in return. They then flipped that pick for Linden Vey, a former Medicine Hat Tiger and a talented minor league forward who – at just 22-year-old – has managed .83 points per game in the American Hockey League. He’s going to play big minutes in Vancouver next season for a team that will be desperate for offense. Definitely worth watching his production early on in the season, I figure he may at least be useful waiver fodder.

 

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As for Garrison, he’s performed like a fringe top-pairing defender for three seasons out of the past four. That fourth season, this last year, was a disaster though. The bet Yzerman is making, essentially, is that Garrison’s groin issues haven’t caused him to lose a step, and that the hard-shooting defender can bounce back defensively. I like the bet for Tampa, honestly. Garrison is a very smart two-way player with one of the league’s most disruptive sticks, if he’s up to speed next season, he’ll be a boon to the Lightning.

 

Fantasy wise, it’s tough to tell how the Lightning will use Garrison on the power-play, so it’s difficult to really project his value. Last year, Tampa spent over half of their five-on-four icetime using just one defender. As dangerous as Garrison’s shot is, he’s not supplanting the likes of Matt Carle, Sami Salo (if he’s re-signed), and Victor Hedman in that spot. For now, I would expect that Garrison’s shot rate is going to drop off next year and that he might score significantly fewer goals too. 

 

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On Day 2 of the NHL Draft the St. Louis Blues and the Toronto Maple Leafs swapped defenseman, with Carl Gunnarsson headed to the mid-west and Roman Polak joining the Maple Leafs. To lubricate things, the Maple Leafs threw in a draft pick and retained 6.3% of Carl Gunnarsson’s salary and cap-hit. 

 

There isn’t a lot to say about this deal, really. Gunnarsson had worse results than Polak did a year ago by the underlying numbers, but also played way more minutes against more difficult competition. Gunnarsson was out of his depth as a top-of-the-lineup defender, while Polak was steady on St. Louis’ third-pair. 

 

I’d imagine Gunnarsson will excel in St. Louis playing a more prescribed role. As for Polak, it’s tough to know how he’ll do or be used. If he’s used like Gunnarsson was in Toronto, I suspect it’s not going to be pretty.

 

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Martin Brodeur to the Maple Leafs has to happen. Reportedly the six teams interested in the future Hall of Famer are contenders, but that makes no sense. If you’re signing Brodeur this summer, you should be doing it with Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid in mind. 

 

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Jason Spezza wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause to go to the Nashville Predators and Bryan Murray is mad, but wasn’t Nashville on his no-trade list? So why is this a story or a point of contention?

 

Spezza is getting jerked around here, which is all too familiar and basically why I’ll never really hold it against a player for taking advantage of his full no-trade clause in the limited way that Kesler and Roberto Luongo did in Vancouver.

 

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Speaking of which stripping Joe Thornton of the captaincy would be dumb. Smarten up Todd McLellan.

 

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The Wild pursuing Jarome Iginla? And telling Thomas Vanek that they won’t sign him to a long-term deal? One gets the sense that if the long foretold Vanek/Wild union is going to happen, Vanek is going to have to really want to play in Minnesota.

 

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Finally, on July 1, the Chicago Blackhawks seem likely to sign Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane to contracts that will exceed $10 million per year

 

I can already hear people criticizing the two superstars for being greedy. They’re the most marketable stars at the front of a nearly 4 billion a year industry but asking for $10 million annually or more is greedy? Yeah ok.

 

Anyway, Toews and Kane will become the first players in the salary cap era to break the $10 million averaged annual salary barrier; but the fact is, players have been making $10 million per season for a while.

 

All of Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Sidney Crosby and Zach Parise would have a cap-hit over $10 million if there deals had been signed under the current CBA rules. Because of the 8-year (or 7-year) contract limit, a player’s cap-hit is going to have a closer relationship with their actual salary. That structural change doesn’t actually impact Toews and Kane’s market value, or their salary demands though, which is why the $10 million cap-hit is about to become a much more common thing. That era begins this week, probably.

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