July 13, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-07-13

Hey gang! Steve here filling in for Thomas this Saturday night. Don't worry, he'll be taking one of my nights next week so you'll have your Drance fix.

 

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I've started hammering away on my contribution to this year's Pre-Season Guide. As per usual, I'll be taking a look at players headed for serious stock drops in the coming season. I have a love/hate relationship with this piece. As much as I enjoy pointing out when crappy players overachieve I don't exactly want to be known as the Negatron around here.

 

Anyhow, I wanted to take a look back at my list from last year to see how I fared:


Patrick Kane

No one will argue that Kane isn't a star but believe it or not, 2013 was just the second season of Kane's career where he scored over a point per game. This may be viewed as a sign of Kane's maturation but he also had some luck scoring on a career high 16.7% of his shots. Following a lengthy playoff run Kane now goes up against a full 82-game schedule as well as the upcoming Sochi Olympics. There is tremendous potential for a Stanley Cup hangover here.

This one wasn't looking great as Kane came blazing out of the gate but then hit a wall at mid-season and struggling with injuries. He would finish with 69 points in 69 games. Call this one a push.


Craig Anderson

We've seen Anderson put together some phenomenal stretches of goaltending where he looks virtually unbeatable. He did it in Florida, he did it in Colorado and now he's done it in Ottawa twice. In 2013 Anderson led the NHL in save percentage and goals against average playing 24 games while missing time with injury. What we haven't seen from Anderson is the capability to maintain his otherworldly play for a full season. Anderson also has Robin Lehner breathing down his neck and could be usurped if his play slips even a little bit.

Ding! Ding! We have a winner.


Andrei Markov

Markov has long been one of the best defensemen in the NHL and one of the most productive defensemen in fantasy hockey when healthy. The problem is his knees have been operated on more times than the entire cast of Desperate Housewives. They may have held up for 48 games in 2013 but it's unlikely they'll do so for 82 games this season, especially since he will likely be run into the ground at the Sochi Olympics considering the dearth of talent Russia has on the back end.

Who knew Markov's bionic knees would hold up so well. I may have to double down on this one.

 

The rest of the list:


Jeff Carter

Brent Burns

Jakub Voracek

Patrick Wiercioch

Cory Conacher

Kimmo Timonen

Francois Beauchemin

Thomas Vanek

Lars Eller

Eric Staal

Jiri Tlusty

Alex Semin

Brad Boyes

Tomas Kopecky

Mike Ribeiro

Pascal Dupuis

Chris Kunitz

 

I feel like I had a lot more hits than misses on that list. Who do you think makes the list this year?

 

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On the flip side of the regression conversation, isn't Loui Eriksson just a ginormous buy-low right now?

 

I don't expect him to get back to his 70-point days but it seems we've all forgotten that he's just a couple of years removed from three straight seasons above the 70-point mark. Now with Jarome Iginla gone Eriksson is the de facto top right wing in Boston. I like his odds for a bounce back. We just have to hope he can avoid getting another concussion.

 

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An interesting look at the importance of Kris Letang and Paul Martin to the Penguins using WOWY (with or without you).


The difference with and without Martin and Letang is clear as day. When they both played, the team had a 51.5% CF% close and a 54% FF% close. That Fenwick percentage is stellar; had the team finished the year with a 54% Fenwick Close, they would have ranked fifth in the league. Things get worse–but still good–with just Martin in the lineup, as the team sports an identical 52.6% CF% and FF%. It was surprising to me how far the Pens dropped even with Letang in the lineup, as both the team’s CF% and FF% in those games was below 50%. This is additional evidence, in my opinion, that Paul Martin (or an equivalent player) is key to Letang’s continued success.

 

That last line should be key information for you. Both Martin and Letang have been injury prone players so if you are vested in Letang you don't need to just worry about his health but also that of Martin. The addition of Christian Ehrhoff may help in this regard (as will the development of Olli Maatta and some of the other young defensemen the Penguins are bringing along) but keep in mind the health status of Martin throughout the season as it may inform buy low/sell high opportunities.

 

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David Moss has re-signed with the Arizona Coyotes taking full advantage of the one-week out he had in the deal he'd previously signed with a Swiss team.

 

 

 

 

 

Moss is only relevant in the deepest of leagues but his signing his notable because that leaves one less spot on the roster for one of the Coyotes' intriguing prospects.

 

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Is it too early to be looking up Stanley Cup betting odds? It's definitely too early to be looking up Stanley Cup betting odds… but I couldn't resist.

 

I have to say, the Tampa Bay Lightning are looking like a solid bet at 18/1.

 

Who would you say the favourite to win the Cup should be going into the season? They have the Blackhawks and Kings as the top two options, which is hard to argue with considering they've combined for four of the last five Cups.

 

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There is some talk about forming a CHL players union.

 

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Check out the Ducks' new jerseys – now 30% less crappy.

 

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Helene St. James suggests that the Red Wings should target either Mike Green or Tyler Myers in a trade. Both of those names have come up in trade rumours to fill the Red Wings' need for a right-handed defenseman. Either one would receive a major boost to his fantasy stock by switching squads.

 

For Myers it's simply escaping the mess that Buffalo is sure to be the next couple of years.

 

For Green, the writing is on the wall that he is to be replaced in Washington. A trade could rejuvenate him though he's got to hope they've got a better training staff in Detroit (or wherever he lands) than they do in Washington. That's not to say the Caps don't have a strong medical staff. It's just that Green is constantly getting hurt.

 

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Steve Dangle chats with a couple of player agents at the NHL Draft.

 

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FiveThirtyEight looks at what predicts whether or not a NHL coach will be fired.

 

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Mitch Korn has the boys playing a little tag:

 

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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