July 31, 2014

Darren Kennedy

2014-07-31

***

Just one more day – Dobber’s 9th Annual Fantasy Hockey Guide. Friday.

 

***

 

I'm scared.

 

Not in a 'watch the Blair Witch Project at home by yourself at age 13' type of scared, but close to it. Poolies are getting a WEE bit too excited about one Joe Pavelski. He of 41 goals, 79 points and 225 shots. The man, along with fellow young-gun Logan Couture, who is expected to take over for Marleau and Thornton and lead San Jose to the promise land!

 

(A fun fact: Pavelski is 30 years old. He us actually a BIG PART of the Thornton/Marleau era more than he is the heir apparent)

 

In case ya'll forgot, Nichushkin is slated to skate with Jason Spezza next yearon Dallas' second line. He's going to score ALL OF THE GOALS. All of them.

Ok, maybe not all of them because Ruff is going to refuse to play him on the first powerplay unit. But he'll score ALL OF THE EVEN STRENGTH GOALS! Dammit, that doesn't have much of a ring to it.

 

*

 

Milan Lucic had an outstanding year in 2013-14. 59 points, plus 30, 90 penalty minutes, and 153 shots. There will be some who look for regression next year, on account of his shooting percentage sitting at 15.7%.

 

I actually think he could do better. Amazingly, his career shooting percentage is 14.9%, well within reach of last season's supposed outlier. Further, his teammates only scored at a 5v5 rate of 7.6% with Lucic on the ice. That was seventh among Boston forwards. If that numbers creeps upward there is a chance he actually improves on last season.

 

*

 

Your unbelievable factoid of the day: Phaneuf led the entire league in minor penalties last season with 47. Yes, that's more than Gudas, Neil, Garbutt, the whole lot of them. His 144 minutes in the box were the second most of his career. My theory is that because he was (over) used in all situations by Randy Carlyle, he often got caught too long on the ice. Tired legs mean bad decisions – a lazy stick, a bear hug…etc.

 

Other than Robidas, the Leafs haven't done a tonne to address their top two defensive pairings. I'd look for another year of well over 100 minutes for Phaneuf. Clearly making us multi-category poolies a priority.

 

*

 

Over the weekend I mused about Duncan Keith and why he isn't among my top five for defencemen. People got angry – I tried to explain – they got angrier. Such is life as a fantasy prognosticator.

 

*

 

Of all the hockey team blogs out there (and there are a few), the one I check most often is Lowetide. He writes with a calm, methodical pace, that is always thoughtful and entertaining to read – are rare mix. Every offseason he provides a Reasonable Expectation series in which he projects goal and assist totals for all the major Oilers.

 

Earlier in the week it was Mr.Yakupov. Not the best news from a fantasy perspective, but, as he admits, the former number one pick isn't exactly easy to project. This passage helps shed some light on why he might be taking a bit longer to adjust to the NHL game:

 

Well, why won't he learn? I've never seen it expressed anywhere, but it seems his junior career (and possibly before) didn't involve a lot of structure. Yakupov's defensive role (he's a winger) is not rocket science. I think the major concern of the coaching staff has to do with doing less solo work with the puck, to be honest.

 

I'm a bit more bullish on Yakupov than others. With elite talents like him there seems to come a moment where everything sort of comes together. He's an uber prospect playing a team full of uber prospects. Once his ice time moves closer to 17 or 18 minutes a night and he gets comfortable releasing that shot with regularity – watch out. This may not be the year he scores 30, but to me, he won't be far off.

 

 

Darren Kennedy (@fantasyhockeydk) is a writer for Dobber and Mckeen's Hockey. He'll talk about anything and everything. Except Kovalchuk. Never, ever, Kovalchuk. 

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
JACK QUINN BUF
FILIP FORSBERG NSH

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.2 NICK SCHMALTZ CLAYTON KELLER NICK BJUGSTAD
19.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
18.9 JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI JOSH DOAN

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK