August 11, 2014

Dobber

2014-08-11

Investigating older AHL stars and their odds of making a fantasy impact, and more…

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Last year I got a lot of emails/comments inquiring about the fantasy value of career minor-leaguer Travis Morin. After all, he just led the AHL in scoring. By a wide margin (88 points to second-place Zach Boychuk’s 74 points). Morin is 30 and the odds of him getting any kind of shot on a scoring line in the NHL approaches zero. Historically, the career AHLers who lead the AHL at this age go nowhere. Think Darren Haydar, Peter White, Christian Matte, Steve Maltais, Kirby Law, Alexandre Giroux, Keith Aucoin, Jason Krog…heard of them? It just doesn’t happen.

Not fairly, anyway. And by “fairly” I mean a sustained look on a scoring line for 15 or more games. Teams don’t have anything invested in these guys. Their money has been poured into their draft picks and younger prospects – the higher the draft pick, the more money spent on them. If you spent $5 million over the last five years on a 23-year-old you drafted in the second round, versus $0 on a 29-year-old you just signed a year ago to bolster your AHL club, who are you going to give a bigger shot to make the big club?

Defending Big D takes a look at Morin and reviews the most successful 30 year olds in NHL history – that is, 30 year olds who make their NHL debut at that age. Take away the Top 8, because all eight of those players made the jump in 1989 or earlier. Now that NHL hockey is worldwide with regards to players, you can’t look at that era. Since 1990, 34 points is as high as it goes – Lubomir Sekeras with 34 points in 80 games as a 32-year-old first year player. And that was with an expansion team.

It just doesn’t happen. Ever.

Not saying that it wouldn’t work. I probably would. But hockey politics are always in play, and this type of situation is no exception. That’s why the Islanders were so radical with Matt Moulson (one month shy of 26) and PA Parenteau (27). Imagine how radical a team would be if they tried that with a 30-year-old?

“If this latest litigation is successful, it’s possible that popular teams like the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks could begin selling their broadcast rights throughout the United States.”

I think, after all the mumbo-jumbo and legal-eez is put to bed (in two or three years, at the rate in which the NHL will drag the case through molasses), the ridiculous blackouts in some markets when their teams are playing in certain cities will go bye-bye.

“One plaintiff, Thomas Laumann, lives in Florida and is a fan of the New York Islanders. Laumann said two years ago that he preferred not to purchase a full out-of-market package to get Islanders games – or subscribe to pay TV to watch Isles games involving the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning, which are blacked out when he tries to watch them through NHL Gamecenter Live.

The lawsuit also attacks the NHL’s tactic of charging customers $179.80 for its full-season offering of games available on cable and satellite providers. Again, both of those packages, known as NHL Center Ice, black out in-market games.”

I enjoyed Drance’s ramblings again yesterday, particularly his thoughts on what the AHL needs to do to improve the watchability of the games, and his recap of the Jason Strudwick/ analytics article. “the ultimate failure of the 2013-14 Toronto Maple Leafs test case was a tipping point for…the acceptance of analytics”. Yes and yes.

The last Fantasy Guide update was Friday August 8. In August you can pretty much expect an update every week or so. In September that increases in frequency, and late September the updates are daily. This last update has my annual look at PDO.

Pittsburgh Penguins season in 60 seconds:

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 18 - 19:03	MTL	vs	OTT
Mar 18 - 19:03	WSH	vs	DET
Mar 18 - 19:03	NYR	vs	CGY
Mar 18 - 19:03	PIT	vs	NYI
Mar 18 - 20:03	DAL	vs	ANA
Mar 18 - 20:03	NSH	vs	STL
Mar 18 - 20:03	CHI	vs	SEA
Mar 18 - 21:03	EDM	vs	UTA
Mar 18 - 22:03	VAN	vs	WPG