Thoughts on Draisaitl, Girardi, and what to name your cat

*

I'm contemplating getting an orange tabby cat. Everyone I've spoken to says they are one of the best natured animals you'll find. Friendly, affectionate, and in need of endless belly-rubs.

Assuming I get one, the next question is what would said cat be named? Something related to Nichushkin would be nice. An ode to my fanboy-like adoration of the young winger. This creates a potential issue, however. What if Nichushkin ends up as a bust? It's not fun to think about, but he certainly wouldn't be the first former first round pick to fizzle out. Posting 15 goal seasons, with no penalty minutes, and limited shots, before eventually leaving for the KHL at 27. This would hurt my fantasy team and leave me with some cat named after a relatively nondescript former NHLer.

When glancing at the cat would I be immediately filled with a feeling of disappointment? When he half-heartedly swats at, and misses, some fluffy mouse toy, will I mutter something about him never living up to his potential? Would I send the cat to live with distant relatives in Russia? Do I even have distant relatives in Russia?

These are the type of questions I'm pondering over the offseason. I'll have to seek out some guy with an old feline named 'Daigle' to understand just how tough it might be.

Let us ramble…

*

Oilers' prospect Leon Draisaitl has agreed to a three year entry level contract with the team. Good news for Edmonton and their fans, bad for people like me who will be doomed to misspell his name for all eternity.

From a fantasy perspective, the real question is where will he play in 2014-15? Johnathan Willis had an apt take over at Oilers Nation:

While Edmonton has (encouragingly) placed a number of obstacles in the path of Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom, forcing both to clearly win a spot in training camp over an established player if they are to play in the NHL, the same is not true in the case of Draisaitl. Discounting the rookie, at this point Edmonton's No. 2 and No. 3 pivots are Mark Arcobello and Anton Lander, and if a third overall pick can't beat Lander out for a job on a scoring line it will be a very great shock.

The trade that sent Gagner to Arizona has created a subnational hole in the center (pun intended) of Edmonton's roster. I absolutely loved their moves to bring in well-regarded possession veterans like Purcell and Pouliot, but was surprised that they didn't add a more established pivot to secure that number two spot.

Even at 18, Draisaitl will have a real opportunity to skate with the likes of Yakupov and Perron next year. The kind of line-mates you typically don't see afforded to a red-shirt rookie. Lowetide is projecting him for 66 games, 12 goals, and 22 assists. I'd tend to creep a bit higher than that, seeing 40 as a realistic expectation (he should see some decent second unit powerplay time).

*

NHL.com took a look at Minnesota and speculated on what their five biggest questions in 2014-15 may be. No mention of Zach Parise, who turned 30 in July. But don't worry, nothing bad ever happens to athletes' production once they're on the wrong side of 3-0. Nothing. Ever.

*

With it being "guide" season, in which you're able to choose from a dozen or so fantasy hockey magazines on the market. I hear a lot of complaints that the detail in some of these isn't quite granular enough. Simply saying that a player is 'due for a bounceback' isn't enough – there has to be a why. Was he saddled with horrific zone starts? Did he hurt his wrist in the third week and fail to fully recover? Did his team have a league worst shooting percentage with him on the ice? (As you'd expect, Dobber's guide is full of fantastic insights).

That's the level of information that can give you a minute, but critical, edge at the draft table. One piece of data I've been enjoying of late is 'Top Linemates' over at Behind the Net. How it works, is you can filter by any player and find out who on his team he shared the ice with most often.

Say, for example, you're frustrated that Jeff Skinner had an underwhelming 2013-14. You can review his line-mates (among other information) and try to decipher his situation. Was he really given a chance to post consistent numbers?

One guy that jumped out at me was Derek Roy. He saw barely 13 minutes of ice time in St.Louis. Making matters worse, his two most frequent wingers were Chris Stewart and Brenden Morrow (no, not 2007 Brenden Morrow). Suddenly his 37 points don't see so abominable. If he can manage a few more minutes in Nashville, along with a better supporting cast, perhaps 45 is a reasonable target?

*

Your unbelievable fact of the day – well I guess it's TWO facts – Dan Girardi finished eighth among defencemen in blocked shots (174) and 12^th in hits (191).

He's the kind of guy I routinely overlook in most formats, but it's clear he has a tonne of value in pools that lean towards real time stats.

*

Question was posed on twitter the other day: What categories would be in your ideal pool?

I didn't really have an answer immediately, but put some thought into it last night. Today, there isn't much of an appetite for the lesser known/advanced stats. It would be great to see things like primary assists, Corsi, or penalties drawn, being given more attention. But that world is likely five or 10 years away. We'll have to wait.

Of our present-day options, I like to focus squarely on ones that represent, as best as possible, the talent of an individual player. That means doing away with highly variable stats like game winning goals, shorthanded points, and shutouts. My preference is for goals, assists, powerplay points, shots, and time on ice. And in net; wins, saves, save percentage, and goals against average.

It's not a perfect system, and I recognize that there are counterarguments for including wins and omitting hits and blocked shots, but hey it's my ideal world!

*

I'm pulling a Costanza-esque move and declaring this the summer of "Corey Schneider." It's for a few reasons: First, I traded a massive amount of assets for him at the end of the year (an overpayment, really). Second, the underlying statistics point to a quality year ahead.

There is an almost ZERO (I say 'almost', to avoid the impending lightning strike) chance that the Devil's go winless in 12 shootout games again in 2014-15. And, he faced the fewest shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 play than any goalie in hockey (23.4).

It's the fantasy trifecta: talented goalie + limited shots against + positive regression = me trash talking my non-believer buddies. Of which there are many.

*

Incredibly sad news this week when we learned of Robin Williams' passing. Like many, his work came in and out of my life at various times. Be it watching Aladdin as a child, laughing as a family at his role as Mrs. Doubtfire, or more recently, as an adult enjoying his Oscar worthy performances in Good Morning Vietnam and Good Will Hunting.

If I had to pick a favourite moment, and there really are almost too many to choose from, it would be this:

Darren Kennedy (@fantasyhockeydk) is a contributor for Dobber Hockey and McKeen's. He'll talk about anything and everything… except Kovalchuk. Never, ever, Kovalchuk.