Avalanche Warning

Dobber

2014-09-08

MacKinnon

 

Could the Avalanche actually miss the postseason in 2014-15? Why you can expect some regression

 

This may seem like a bold statement, but the Colorado Avalanche are in jeopardy of not making the playoffs this year. At best they will squeak in as one of the two wildcard entries and this is only because the bottom six teams in the Western Conference have not improved enough to challenge last year's top eight. In Colorado's case the team is set up for the classic sophomore jinx following Patrick Roy's and Nathan MacKinnon's well deserved Jack Adams and Calder campaigns respectively.

Obviously a number of experts have Colorado pegged for another trip to the postseason but a closer look at the numbers suggests they will be right on the bubble come April.

Colorado's Five-on-Five Corsi and PDO Conundrum

A total of all five on five situations last year shows that the Avalanche somehow managed to outscore their opponents 164-142, despite being outshot 2049-1871. Out of all of the playoff teams in the West, Colorado's negative shot differential of 178 was the worst at five on five. Minnesota was the only other playoff team from the West last year with a negative five-on-five shot differential, but the Wild's total was ony negative 47. To put this statistic into perspective, the only team from the West that was worse than Colorado in this category was Edmonton, scary.