Harding's broken foot, Bryzgalov trying out, Johansen's contract talks and more…

 

*

 

Fun news! I'll be appearing on the Illegal Curve show on TSN Radio Winnipeg this Saturday at 11:00 am Central. Be sure to check that out if possible.

 

I love doing radio/podcast spots. We really should do more of that here at DobberHockey.

 

*

 

It appears that Josh Harding will miss MONTHS with a broken foot. I feel bad saying it, but I'm just waiting for the day we hear that Harding's career is done. It's approaching fast.

 

Harding always had talent but between his MS treatments and the constant injuries he's never been able to get a consistent foothold in this league. One of the more star-crossed NHL careers I can think of.

 

The Wild acted quickly bringing Ilya Bryzgalov in on a tryout deal. I'm not sure they really want to sign Bryzgalov here. Niklas Backstrom (another band-aid boy) is looking like his goose is cooked and Bryzgalov isn't much better. This would be the worst goalie tandem in the league, which is impressive considering the oversaturation of goalie talent league-wide.

 

I suspect the real plan here is to put pressure on Darcy Kuemper to agree to the two-way deal they've been offering him. For the life of me, I cannot figure out why they are playing these games with the best goaltender in their system but they are doing it. It's especially baffling that they haven't been able to come to an agreement now that Harding is hurt.

 

Maybe the Wild know something we don't. Maybe Kuemper isn't that reliable.

 

I'll concede that goaltending is a largely fungible position in the NHL. I'd wager that at any given time there are 100 goalies on the planet who could handle a stretch as a starting goalie in the NHL and not be a serious detriment to the team in front of him. Unfortunately for Minnesota, they have approximately one of those in their system (that we know about) and that's Kuemper. (I'd include Harding if he wasn't so injury prone.)

 

Kuemper, for his own part has been threatening to jump to the KHL. I don't see it. Even with the threat of Bryzgalov, Kuemper should have enough leverage to get his one-way deal now.

 

I'd recommend pitching the Kuemper owner in your league to see if there's any lingering doubt. He'd be a nice pick up if the price is right.

 

I'd also take a flyer on Bryzgalov in deep leagues. And by deep, I mean leagues where every starter is owned and some of the better backups too. Crazier things have happened.

 

*

 

Dobber talked about the Ryan Johansen contract situation yesterday but things got even crazier today when Blue Jackets President John Davidson took to the media to disclose the specific numbers they'd offered Johansen.

 

I'm not a big fan of this tactic but it's a proven winner. Time and time again fans have been proven to side with teams when contract negotiations get heated because in the end these players are playing kids games that we all love and would play for free if we could. But hockey is big business so it's not that simple.

 

I don't begrudge players for trying to extract as much money as they can in contract talks. That's their labour negotiated right. Something that they've endured three lockouts by the owners to maintain. Don't think for a second that if the owners could they'd go back to dark ages where players made minimal wages and were treated like meat.

 

These are jobs, nay careers for these players. It's what they've built their whole lives around and made tons of sacrifices to achieve. I'm so over chastising players for demanding too much.

 

Now, don't get me wrong, I'd be upset and irrational if this was Taylor Hall being tough in negotiations with the Oilers but my Oiler fandom is completely irrational so the emotion is not out of place. I want the superstars on the Oilers making minimum wages so that they can be teamed up with other superstars and win championships together. It's unrealistic but it's the dream.

 

For players on any other team? Have at it. Free agency is where you get to strike back against the owners to claim your piece of the pie. A pie that the owners will no doubt be locking out the NHL when the next CBA is up to claim even more of for themselves. In labour negotiations the owners hold the cards, in free agency, it's the players. I say, good for Johansen.

 

That being said, there is an argument to be made that within a cap system Johansen isn't merely fighting to take money out of the owner's pocket but also from those of his teammates, as the more money he earns the less money available under the cap for his teammates. Still, I think his teammates would agree that the players get taken to the woodshed in every CBA negotiation. This is Johansen's turn to "put one of theirs in the morgue."

 

And the reality is, as much money as the Blue Jackets are offering here, I actually think that it's reasonable for Johansen to turn it down. We all know that the NHL cap is going to rise by a heck of a lot after the landmark TV deal between the NHL and Rogers. And there will be even more money flooding into the game with teams also negotiating regional TV rights deals as well. This is nowhere near the level of cash influx that we are seeing in baseball but for the NHL this is still a big deal.

 

We've already seen the impact in extensions for guys like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. There are going to be more deals like that. I'm not saying that Johansen is on their level but if he's the next level below, aren't his free agent years worth in the $8 million range?

 

The argument is that Johansen hasn't proven he's worth that and I'd agree to an extent. The problem is that the whole system in the NHL is backwards. There have been innumerable studies on the age of peak performance for NHL players and a lot of them are finding that NHL players are most productive early in their careers, during the same years that their salaries are kept low by the restrictions placed on rookie deals and the reduced leverage given to restricted free agents. Then once players have already peaked and proven their worth they are unleashed into unrestricted free agency where they have the most leverage and can then be overpaid for their depreciating returns.

 

That's a systemic issue and one that won't be solved by Johansen's contract battle. The current CBA still includes an entry draft and limitations on how much money players can earn on their entry-level contracts. Until that changes the system will still be backwards. That doesn't mean Johansen shouldn't try. Even though he is likely to fail in his quest to be properly compensated (by his estimation) because of his lack of leverage doesn't make him greedy or stupid. We don't know him on a personal level (at least most of us don't.) We don't know his specific situation and what his values are so we aren't really in a position to judge these things.

 

I think that Johansen will ultimately have to cave. Restricted free agents don't have much leverage. His only real hope is that another team comes with a predatory offer sheet similar to the one the Flames handed Ryan O'Reilly a couple of years ago. That one worked out really well for O'Reilly and ultimately he signed a reasonable extension with the Avalanche this summer so there's definitely still hope for the Johansen-Blue Jackets long term relationship.

 

I'll give the Blue Jackets front office some credit though. I don't know who started the whole negotiating through the media business that has been going on here but I loved what GM Jarmo Kekelainen had to say:

 

"Johansen's potential is great," Kekalainen said. "But we're not there yet, after one year, where we're willing to invest franchise-type money into his future. Do it once or twice more. Make us pay. Go ahead and make us pay.

"We have no problem paying the dollars when it's earned, but the key word there is 'earned.' While we believe in his future, we want to see him do it a little bit longer than just one year.

 

It shows a strong fortitude in negotiations but it also shows foresight. They realize that if they go the bridge contract route with Johansen that they'll wind up having to pay him big time. It's the kind of talk that I don't remember out of Montreal when the team was pushing him into signing a bridge deal (though I could be mistaken). They've got their principles and they are sticking to them knowing full well the consequences. I'm fine with that.

 

On the flip side, I'm fine with Johansen being willing to sit out games in an effort to earn a better contract offer if that's what it takes. After all, it's money out of his own pocket. It's also letting down his teammates and simply being unable to play the game that he has built a life around. That can't be an easy decision but full marks to him if he goes through with it.

 

*

 

Sorry for the non-fantasy related rant. I needed to get that off my chest.

 

As for what you should do with Johansen in fantasy leagues. If you read my piece in the Fantasy Guide, you'll know I had him pegged to miss games with these contract negotiations and that I have him pegged for a serious regression. So far we are on schedule. Push him well down your one-year league draft boards.

 

*

 

Johansen's isn't the only contract negotiation going poorly. Ryan Ellis is also struggling to come to terms with the Nashville Predators.

 

I think Ellis needs a change of scenery to have much of any fantasy value. Right now Shea Weber and Roman Josi are 1-2 on the Predators in terms of offensive responsibility. Seth Jones is #3 with a bullet. That doesn't leave much room for Ellis.

 

I'm actually not sure Ellis has much chance of being a top fantasy defenseman even if he winds up somewhere else but there is NO room for him to be a fantasy asset in Nashville. Most teams struggle to carry more than one fantasy worthy defenseman. Nashville is the rare team that has three. (The Blues last year were another.) Four is just pushing it. No one gets four.

 

*

 

Adam Gretz is confident that Kyle Okposo's breakout season wasn't a fluke:

 

A lot of it simply comes down to usage. Specifically, an increased role on the power play that saw him average nearly four minutes of ice-time per game on the man advantage after checking in between 1:30 and 2:30 over the previous three seasons. That jump in ice-time helped lead to 15 power play points in 2013-14 after recording just 14 between 2010-11 and 2012-13.

 

Gretz also mentions the increased amount of time Okposo spent with John Tavares last season. Those are the two main reasons why I am also confident that Okposo can continue to score in the 70-point range going forward.

 

He did boast a high shooting percentage at 13.8% last season, which could be due for regression but he's been a player who has had wild fluctuations in his shooting percentage from year to year. In 2013 he shot just 4.0% but was at 15.8%. It's tough to peg what his true shooting percentage should be. What I do know is that shooting isn't necessarily what makes Okposo such a valuable player. Rather his hockey sense and tenacious play alongside a bonafide superstar are what will keep him producing points.

 

*

 

Some good news regarding injuries to Penguins Maatta and Dupuis:

 

Johnston said the Penguins “could get some good news” when defenseman Olli Maatta, who had shoulder surgery this summer, is examined this week, which means he could be cleared for contact at the start of camp. Right winger Pascal Dupuis, coming off reconstructive knee surgery, appears to be getting close, too. “I’m hearing that he’ll start camp practicing, but may not be cleared for full contact until a week into camp,” Johnston said. Johnston said defenseman Derrick Pouliot, who had offseason shoulder surgery, also will be examined this week but “won’t be cleared to play and practice [with] contact right away.”

 

That's bad news for anyone hoping to see someone like Simon Depres sneak into an offensive role.

 

*

 

SB Nation wants us to stop getting overexcited about rookie camp. I couldn't agree more. I'm especially worn out by all the hoopla surrounding Johnny Gaudreau. Really nice prospect. Definite candidate for the Calder trophy. Odds are he won't be relevant in most fantasy leagues.

 

But since I know you guys can’t resist, how about some Gaudreau highlights from the World Championships?

 

 

I’ll admit it. He’s slick.

 

*

 

The USHL is going to experiment with enforcing icing rules against teams on the penalty kill. They'll only do it during the pre-season, which means we won't have much of a sample size to see how it really works. I'm excited none the less.

 

Not that I think that power plays necessarily need to become more efficient. I think we'd all prefer it if there were more goals at even strength than teams constantly relying on power plays to score.

 

I think our worst nightmare might actually be a situation where teams become so good on the power play that it's basically a 50/50 chance a team scores with the man advantage. That would turn every failed power play into a major let down and would also turn every penalty into almost certain doom. On the other hand, it would turn every killed penalty into a huge boost.

 

Ultimately, I think what we enjoy most is the exciting end-to-end action that hockey provides. Power plays don't really factor into that all that much. In fact, I'd say that it's less that we want more scoring plays but more scoring chances, while maintaining the great end-to-end action. But that would require handcuffing coaching strategies, which tend to always lean conservative.

 

*

 

You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.