Geek of the Week previews his perfect hypothetical fantasy draft.

With draft season upon us, I wanted to do one more draft related article before getting into the player profiles as we have done in the past. In last week's article I suggested that a great draft strategy would be to take a guy below his average draft position (ADP), but later than his Fantasy Hockey Geek (FHG) value. For example, if player John Smith had an average draft position of 48 overall but FHG calculated him as the 25th most valuable player then drafting him somewhere around 33^rd overall would be good value. A reader asked me "How can I do this when the guy that I want is going in the 6^th round and he's ranked 157^th?". My answer to that is: you don't. That's just not an example of a player who is providing you the value that you want. Another reader asked me what I would do if I combined the awesome power of FHG with some good draft strategy and logic. Today, I want to do exactly that while hoping to answer the first reader's question. With that – I present you my draft Utopia: The way a perfect draft would go for me if all things fell my way.

(For all analysis today we are using a 12 team Yahoo! standard league measuring G, A. +/-, PPP, PIM, SOG)

Round 1: Alex Ovechkin RW (ADP = 5.3 overall; FHG rank = 2 overall)

In an ideal world in almost any pool, Alex Ovechkin is my first pick whether I am picking first or fifth. He gets points, most of them are goals, the portion of them that are on the powerplay is huge and his peripherals can't be touched by anybody in the league. Outside of a points only league, Ovi is almost always the choice and even in a points only, he isn't a bad choice. In the league that we are measuring here Ovi is calculated as projected as only the second most valuable but that's still higher than his ADP so he's my target for sure in round 1.

Round 2: Taylor Hall (ADP = round 2.4; FHG rank = 16 overall) LW / Chris Kunitz (ADP = 3^rd round; FHG rank = 19 overall)

Ideally, I want to take Taylor Hall here but at an ADP of 2.4 I realize that this may not be possible. FHG calculates Hall as the 16^th most valuable guy in the league based on Dobber's projections and I wouldn't be shocked to see him exceed that. Realistically though, there is a good chance that Hall wouldn't be available here so I want to throw out a second name: Chris Kunitz. With an ADP in the 3^rd round, Kunitz should be available in the second and at the 19^th overall value he is a great add. FHG calculates him as the 19^th most valuable player, he gets points, he puts up PP production and he even chips in some PIMs. He may not be the most skillful guy in the league but he's fantasy gold. Great second round pick here.

Round 3: Shea Weber (ADP = 36 ;FHG =11)

In the third round, I want a stud fantasy D. It's important to understand here that points don't necessarily mean stud-D.  A bit of a teaser here: Dion Phaneuf as a 40pt D is worth considerably more than Tobias Enstrom as a 48pt D in almost any league. I am not taking either of those guys in the third round though, I am going with Shea Weber. His high end point total out of the D-slot, combined with his 200+ shots make him an incredibly valuable commodity. If your league includes hits you should move him a little higher up the draft board. FHG calculates his value in the first round (11^th overall) and he is being drafted at the same time as Matt Duchene who is a great player in his own right, but not worth the high pick.

Round 4: Cory Schneider (goalie):

I have a love-hate relationship with goalies: I know that they are uber-important but I also know that they are completely unreliable. There are only about 2 or 3 goalies that I could pick and be confident on what they will provide. I'd rather grab my goalies in rounds 4-6 and try my luck. I look for guys who will get the starts and have a shot to put up the numbers. This year, Corey Schneider may be the best of such opportunity. I'll draft a goalie because I have to and get back to drafting guys I like in the next round, but in the meantime I think that a Brodeuer-less Schneider may have a chance of being a top-5 G this year. I'll take my medicine here and move on.

Round 5: Niclas Backstrom (ADP = 67  FHG = 10)

Backstrom's ADP of 67 is ridiculously low and you need to take advantage of it in any league that measure powerplay points. PPP are one of the hardest categories to fill in fantasy hockey, almost every league counts them, and Backstrom has been a PPP beast in his career with no reason to expect that to change. He's a point per game guy who should finish in the top 10 in PPP in the coming season and he is being drafted in the 6^th round? That's nuts.  FHG knows better, as evidenced by his FHG calculated value of 10^th overall.  I'm picking Backstrom a round ahead of his ADP here and still getting 4 rounds of value – this is perfect to me. Backstrom is also a great example of how you need to use your skills as a GM in combination with the FHG math to get ahead. The FHG math may have told me to take Backstrom in the 2^nd but I knew he would be available later so I took Hall in the second and am making some serious hay with Backstrom in the 5^th.

Round 6: Braden Holtby (goalie):

Read all my points about Schneider in the 4^th and apply them here. I got Holtby a round earlier than he's going and he's a starting goalie for a Trotz coached team. I'll take my chances with that all day. I'm a little heavy on Capitals at this point, but in my opinion I have all the right ones. Getting Holtby and Schneider in the mid rounds gives me two solid starters but also the ability to pick skaters in the top 3 rounds. That will always be my strategy because top 20 skaters rarely drop more than 10 spots or so but goalies variability can sway from top 5 to bottom half year over year all the time.

Round 7: Dustin Byfuglien (ADP 9.5):

Big Buff in the 7^th is one of the biggest homeruns you could hit if you manage to pull it off. I want to take him here a full 2.5 rounds ahead of his ADP because I want to be sure not to miss out on him. FHG calculates Buff as 9^th most valuable player in the entire league! Drafting a guy with an ADP in the mid 9^th round in the 7^th may seem like a reach, but FHG tells us that this guy is providing first round value. Byfuglien may be playing as a forward but he still has D eligibility and as a 55 point defenceman with 200+ shots and 80+PIMs in this league, he is absolute gold. I actually like Buff better than Weber, but I know I can get him later so I will take Weber first and score huge on Buff. Regardless of format, Buff is currently being drafted as the 17^th defenceman on Yahoo! and he's worth considerably more than that in every league. Draft this guy before others do and check FHG to see how much you're owning the competition by.

Round 8: Scott Hartnell (ADP = 94  FHG = 38)

If you could get a 30 goal guy in the 8^th round would you do it? Of course you would. Now what if I told you that getting 156 PIMs is worth about the same as getting 30Gs? Did you know that? Maybe not…but FHG did. Combine those elite PIMs with Hartnell's decent point total, 200+ shots and PPP contributions and you have yourself a very solid LW2 in the 8^th round. FHG calculates Hartsy as the 38^th most valuable player in this league and I am targeting him somewhere around the 90^th pick. Love this value.

Round 9:  Kyle Turris (ADP = 107 FHG = 92)

Kyle Turris is a first line center who is currently being taken in the 10^th round. He's no world beater, but FHG calculates him as the 92^nd most valuable player so I'm getting more value than I'm paying (draft position is later than FHG rank) so I'll take it. This isn't a huge win, but choices like Turris at centre is what allows you to make the other great value picks at wing and defence. This is the crux of FHG, knowing position scarcity and category scarcity.

Round 10:  Dion Phaneuf (ADP = 116  FHG = 14)

This pick is probably the best value in this whole article. If you're in a league with guys who know what they're doing, you will probably have to go even earlier than this to get Phaneuf, but the fact of the matter is Dion is going in the 11^th round on average and I am saying take him in the 10^th here.  Now look at his FHG value: he is the 14^th most valuable guy! He is being picked in the 100s and he is a top end value like that! This is shocking. The public often under values D, but this gap is way too ridiculous. A 40 point D isn't THAT hard to find, but a 40 point D who shoots at that rate and racks in those PIMs is next to impossible outside of the guys I already took. Dion is worth just as much in leagues that include hits, which makes me wonder what leagues are bringing his ADP down so far. A points only league is the only one where his value may approach his ADP, but in any league with any sort of peripheral category Dion needs to be taken much, much higher.

Round 11:  Jack Johnson (ADP = 132 FHG = 65)

FHG calculates Johnson as the 65th most valuable player in the league and I'm getting him here in the 11^th round. Beautiful. The best part about this is, the 65 ranking is based on him only getting 38 points! That's what Dobber says and the big man knows better than I do but if I was in Vegas I'd take the over on that number so to me, the ranking of 65 is almost a worst case scenario. The reason why JJ is worth so much is that he gets so many of his points on the PP and he adds a significant amount of shots.

Round 12:  Radim Vrbata (ADP = 156  FHG = 90)

Rounding out my team, I would target a 30G RW who consistently puts up top-end shot numbers but is only being drafted in the late 14^th round. Based on Dobber's projections, Vrbata is ranked as the 90^th most valuable player in the league. Granted, Dobber is bullish on Vrbata but he has the history and even if he doesn't put up those points, he ALWAYS puts up those shots. This is a great RW2 for my team and when you compare him to RW2s like Jeff Carter who is being drafted in the 7^th – what's the difference? Not much. My gut wouldn't have said that, but FHG did and I got 5 rounds of value out of it.

If the moons aligned, that's exactly how a draft would go for me in a league of this format. Of course this may or may not happen depending on who you are drafting against but the concept remains the same: if you're drafting ahead of the ADP and still getting good FHG value compared to your draft position then you're going to be in great shape. The real moral of the story is to draft guys with better value than your draft position. That isn't always easy to do, but with FHG you have the information available to do it. Put your league in. Look at the values. Draft accordingly. Cash out.