1.67 (D.S.)

0.35 (J.S.)

0.53 (D.S.)

0.28 (J.S.)

2.06 (D.S.)

2.90 (J.S.)

0.19 (D.S.)

0.30 (J.S.)

44.5% (D.S.)

53.5% (J.S.)

2010-11

0.24 (D.S.)

0.45 (J.S.)

1.01 (D.S.)

0.22 (J.S.)

0.31 (D.S.)

0.38 (J.S.)

2.02 (D.S.)

3.03 (J.S.)

0.12 (D.S.)

0.27 (J.S.)

38.5% (D.S.)

56.3% (J.S.)

What stands out here is Stepan's Shots and PP Points having risen each year, even from 2012-13 to 2013-14 despite both his point per game pace falling from 75 to 57 and, as noted above, his Ice Time per game decreasing as well. That's very encouraging in general, and might also point to Stepan having been a victim of unsustainable bad luck in 2013-14. We'll check on that below.

Also notable is how poorly each player has done in one category — Spezza with Hits and Stepan with faceoff percentage. But Stepan's shortcoming is arguably more painful, since in 2013-14 he took the eighth most draws in the entire NHL; and to find someone with a worse percentage than his 45.2% you'd have to go all the way down to 27th (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins).

Each player also has one category where his production has been remarkably consistent — Stepan with PIM (consistently poor – with just one per roughly every four games) and Spezza with PP Points. One of the big unknowns with respect to Spezza this season is what will happen to his PP production, since if he finds his way onto PP1 in Dallas he could see his it actually increase, whereas if he's put on what's effectively PP2 he'll likely have a hard time matching his three PP points per ten games level from the past few seasons.

Luck-Based Metrics

All in all, this data should be more concerning to Stepan owners. Most notably, his 5×5 PDO and Personal Shooting % for his best season (44 points in 48 games – 75 point full seasons pace – in 2012-13) are both high in general and as compared to his normal numbers. In fact, Stepan's combined shooting percentage in his other three seasons is just 10.3%; and had he averaged that in 2012-13 his goal total would've shrunk from 18 to 11, and in turn reduced his point total to 37 points in 48 games, which would have translated to a more modest 63 points over a full season.

What's more – Stepan's IPP numbers for 2012-13 don't balance out the good luck he received from PDO and Shooting. Instead, his 5×5 IPP was his second highest and his 5×4 IPP was on par with both 2011-12 and 2013-14. Plus, if we look to 2013-14, there are no signs of clearly unsustainably bad luck having led to Stepan's drop in production. In fact, his PDO was well within the normal range; and although his 5×4 IPP was the lowest of these four seasons his 5×5 IPP was the highest, and neither IPP number was far below (5×4) or above (5×5) what he'd received in his other two full seasons.

Spezza also wasn't immune from unsustainable good luck, as in 2013-14 he posted the highest IPP among all NHL forwards who played 200+ minutes at 5×4. Yet, if his 5×4 IPP had been 62.5% instead (i.e., the average of his 2011-12 and 2010-11 numbers) then he'd have lost a total of five PP points, which means that instead of a 72 point full season pace (66 points in 75 games) he'd have been at a 66 point pace (61 in 75 games).

Thus, the overall effect of Spezza's unsustainable good luck in 2013-14 was less pronounced than Stepan's in 2012-13, especially considering that Stepan had never come close to the production he achieved in 2012-13, whereas Spezza has posted several 80+ seasons in the not too distant past.

Who Wins?

In this case – more so than in most Cage Matches – there are legitimate reasons to see either player's glass being either half full or half empty.

But although Spezza is going to a new team where he won't be a bona fide #1 center for the first time pretty much ever, I still think it's easier to envision Spezza outperforming Stepan than vice versa. Not only has Spezza repeatedly shown himself to be a truly elite talent, but it's not unrealistic for a team (e.g., Pittsburgh, San Jose, Boston, Colorado) to have two highly productive centers, ala what could occur with Seguin and Spezza in Dallas.

On the other hand, Stepan has never scored 60 points in a full season. And not only was the 75 point pace he achieved in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season apparently a by-product of good luck, but it also happened under a different coach than current bench boss Alain Vigneault, who appears to be more a fan of spreading out Ice Time and offense.

In the end, I see Spezza outpointing Stepan by 5-10 points if both stay healthy. Of course that raises another point in that whereas Stepan has yet to miss a single regular season game in four campaigns, Spezza is a certified Band-Aid Boy who's played in all 82 contests just once and has as many full seasons where he played 68 or fewer games as ones where he played 70 or more.

But here's the thing – players who never miss games concern me, as in my mind someone who plays every single game has to be playing hurt from time to time, which in turn can diminish their production while not 100%. Thus, although Spezza has indeed been a Band-Aid Boy he's still managed to produce while healthy, so Stepan's advantage in this area might not be as pronounced as it would appear. And it doesn't affect my awarding this Cage Match to Spezza.