October 3, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-03

New deals for Bobby Ryan and Brenden Dillon, training camp cuts, injury talk and more.

Some important moves made by the Senators today signing Bobby Ryan to a seven-year extension worth $50.75 million.

I actually think that this is a bargain. If Ryan has a good season, say 30 goals and 60 points, I bet he signs for at least $8 million a year on the free agent market. With the way the cap is set to be heading upwards by leaps and bounds and the fact that 28-year-old stars simply don't hit unrestricted free agency any more, it was a lock someone would throw gobs of cash at him.

It's a good deal for Ryan too because he's no longer at the mercy of injury luck. Say he suffers some gruesome injury this season (knock on wood), then he hits free agency with a bunch of health questions and he's stuck playing the one-year "prove it" game. No thanks. And he's well compensated here, maybe costing himself $8 million over the length of the deal.

Now, I don't love Ryan in Ottawa from a fantasy perspective but it's worth noting that he scorched the Earth in the first half of last season scoring 36 points in 42 games before the hernia became an issue. There's no guarantee he can get to that level for a full 82 games but there should be optimism.

One thing that really concerns me about Ryan is that for whatever reason he hasn't been a strong power play producer in a long time. Last season he had just nine PPP, his fourth straight season of 10 or less. He was all too often not on the Senators' top power play unit, which was something that plagued his time in Anaheim.

You have to go back to Ryan's first couple of seasons in the league where he scored 23 and 21 PPP respectively for a time when he was a strong power play producer. You could of course spin that as a positive. Ryan's career high for points came in 2010-11, where he scored 71 points but just 10 on the power play.

He recorded 60 even-strength points that season, which is a truly elite number. The only players to outscore him at even strength that season were Daniel Sedin, Corey Perry and Alexander Ovechkin – elite company to say the least.

I wouldn't say that Ryan is playing with enough talent in Ottawa to say that he can get back to 60 ES points but is 50 possible? Certainly. Add in 20 PPP and you've got a return to the 70-point mark. But that's my issue. He doesn't produce on the power play anymore.

50 ES points is a grand enough feat. Now he's got to leap back to the 20 PPP mark? Not saying he can't do it, but there are reasons why I pessimistically have him projected for 55 points and not more.

The other Sens news was naming Erik Karlsson team captain. Not a surprise and not fantasy relevant but noteworthy, sure.

The Arizona Coyotes made some huge cuts yesterday sending down seven players including Max Domi, Brandon Gormley, Lucas Lessio and Tobias Rieder.

Domi's the big one since he had a shot at cracking a weak Coyotes top-six forwards and really add some scoring punch. He had a ton of Calder buzz but instead he's back to junior. I can't believe he didn't get at least nine games. Doesn't make sense to me.

Cam Fowler suffered an undisclosed injury at practice yesterday. Sounds like a leg injury but the team is calling it not serious. Fowler has missed 10+ games in each of the last two seasons and has only played in all 82 games once in his career. Injuries are starting to become a pattern so take notice.

The Blue Jackets cut a few more players including Oscar Dansk and Simon Hjalmarsson. No surprises here.

Dansk is off to the AHL where I am very interested to see how he does. He was much hyped heading into the 2012 draft but he has lost a lot of steam after two middling seasons in the OHL. If he doesn't do anything in the AHL this year, I'm writing him off.

David Perron is nursing some sore ribs. Doesn't sound like it will cost him any time.

Nikita Nikitin, on the other hand, will miss 1-2 weeks with an ankle injury.

Zach Bogosian went down for the Jets yesterday. Lower-body injury, no word on the severity.

With Derek Stepan injured the Rangers are going to experiment with Martin St. Louis at center. To be fair, it's still pre-season so this sort of experimentation is fine, even though it makes my head hurt.

Five cuts for the Canadiens yesterday. No one of note. Things are looking better and better for Jiri Sekac to make the squad. DEEP sleeper for 40 points this season.

Speaking of deep sleepers, the Canadiens signed Drayson Bowman to a two-way deal for this season. I'm not expecting to see much of him this season, let alone any fantasy relevance.

The Penguins released Daniel Carcillo yesterday. I guess they had enough goonery in their lineup. You'll have to look elsewhere for your PIM.

The Stars and Julius Honka exploited a loophole to have Julius Honka play in the AHL this season rather than in the CHL. I'm all for it. As much as the CHL needs to keep as many star players as possible for as long as possible to improve the product and draw fans I'd rather see what's best for the player and in this case (and the case of many other top prospects) what's best for the player is to play at a higher level. Honka might not be good enough for the NHL yet but he's probably good enough for the AHL where he can learn to play against men.

It's also a sweet deal for the Stars because now they can keep better tabs on his development and provide direction to their AHL affiliate on how exactly to coach their young prospect. It's just a better way of doing business. Plus, it also keeps the door open for the Stars to call up Honka later in the season.

Don't think that Honka is upset to be playing pro hockey right away, even if it's as an AHLer. He'll only earn $70,000 skating in the AHL but that's still better than the next-to-nothing that CHLers get. What's more, it'll start the countdown clock towards free agency well before his counterparts who were sent back to junior.

Let's say Honka doesn't reach the NHL until he's 20. That'll leave him one year away from restricted free agency, instead of three had he gone back to the CHL.

Dobber breaks down the top 50 defensemen to draft in one-year leagues.

Make sure you check out our Pre-Season Experts Panel. Similar to our Playoff Panel, the Dobber Hockey writers have made their picks for the upcoming season. Things like top 10 scorers, best goaltenders, sleepers, our Calder favourite, etc. We also projected the 16 playoff teams. A fun read!

Check out the first two parts of Sean McIndoe's NHL preview over at Grantland starting with the bottom feeders and the middle of the pack.

Andrei Burakovsky continues to impress:

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK