The Contrarian – Picking up the Chicklets
Thomas Drance
2014-10-05
Does size matter in fantasy hockey?
So you clicked on the article and thought this was about to be a column regarding goons and penalty minute leaders. Instead you get one about another kind of fighter. This is about the little guys in the league who work their hearts out to make it into the NHL.
Everyone has started to hear about, five-foot-nine, Johnny Gaudreau. Even before his three assists in a pre-season match against the Winnipeg Jets on October 2nd he was on the radar map for most poolies when he scored a goal in his only game last season.
Ryan Pike of The Hockey Writers wrote, "Uncharted Territory: Flames Johnny Gaudreau Battles For NHL Spot". Similarly Randy Sportak of the Calgary Sun penned, "Young guns lead Calgary Flames to win over Jets".
In the articles they espouse his talent and work ethic to make the Flames roster. Sportak has him quoted as saying "I'm trying to show management I belong and whatever I have to do to do that is what I'll try" and "Whether it's playing well defensively or creating offensive chances, I've got to make sure I'm doing my best."
Pike adds, "For his part, Gaudreau's trying his best to make the Calgary Flames roster out of training camp. He's buzzed around the net and generated a lot of scoring chances, including a picturesque goal that woke up the crowd during a sleepy 2-0 Flame pre-season win over Colorado" and "The locker room knows the kid has got the straight goods inside the opposition's blue-line."
Comparable stories are out there this pre-season about small players trying to make the big club. For instance, Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star has written a story called
"Brandon Kozun looks to make big splash with Leafs".
Like the two articles about Gaudreau, McGran details the work effort of Kozun who is five-foot-eight. "I'm a small guy. But I want to play big", said Kozun. Former coach Dave Lowry adds, "The one thing I like about him is he has a chip on his shoulder and he wants to prove everybody wrong for all the right reasons."
Current coach Randy Carlyle cautions, "I don't think you can expect him to step in here and be an offensive force. He is a speedster and he's a smart hockey player." For now it looks like his chance to make the Leafs will be as a penalty killer where he can use his quickness effectively.
With these very positive articles about the heart and drive from these small skaters should you really expect much from them?
I took a look at each team to see how many little guys they have playing for them. I define small as being five foot nine or less.
There were a total of 22 players that look to be on the starting rosters, nine that are on the bubble and 20 that are clearly in the minors. I did not look at players that were in the system but playing in in juniors. That is 22, maybe 31, out of 700-plus players.
There were five teams that did not have anyone that was small (Arizona, Chicago, Dallas, San Jose, St. Louis). There were five teams that had players in the minors (Anaheim, Detroit, Florida, Philadelphia, Vancouver) and there were another five that had bubble players like Kozun (Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Washington and Winnipeg). It could be that half the league's teams just don't have room for small skaters.
I have done a little analysis of the 22 current NHL players, focusing only on points.
Team | Player | Height | Dobber | Seasons | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston | Brad Marchand | 5’9″ | 57 | 5 | 1 | 2 | ||||
Boston | Torey Krug | 5’9″ | 42 | 3 | 1 | |||||
Buffalo | Tyler Ennis | 5’9″ | 46 | 5 | 2 | |||||
Buffalo | Brian Gionta | 5’7″ | 39 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
Calgary | Paul Byron | 5’7″ | 28 | 4 | ||||||
Calgary | Johnny Gaudreau | 5’9″ | 32 | 1 | ||||||
Carolina | Nathan Gerbe | 5’5″ | 33 | 6 | ||||||
Colorado | Daniel Briere | 5’9″ | 19 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
Columbus | Cam Atkinson | 5’8″ | 48 | 3 | 1 | |||||
Columbus | Brian Gibbons | 5’8″ | 11 | 1 | ||||||
Edmonton | Mark Arcobello | 5’8″ | 36 | 2 | ||||||
Minnesota | Jared Spurgeon | 5’9″ | 32 | 4 | ||||||
Montreal | David Desharnais | 5’7″ | 58 | 5 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Montreal | Brenden Gallagher | 5’9″ | 49 | 2 | 1 | |||||
Nashville | Derek Roy | 5’9″ | 43 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
New Jersey | Mike Cammalleri | 5’9″ | 50 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||
NY Rangers | Martin St. Louis | 5’8″ | 69 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
NY Rangers | Mats Zuccarello | 5’7″ | 57 | 4 | 1 | |||||
NY Islanders | Cory Conacher | 5’8″ | 21 | 2 | ||||||
Ottawa | Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 5’9″ | 7 | 2 | ||||||
Tampa Bay | Tyler Johnson | 5’9″ | 47 | 2 | 1 | |||||
Washington | Chris Conner | 5’8″ | 13 | 8 |
I hope Dobber doesn't mind that I put his point predictions in the table. If you want to see what the big boys are projected at you will have to purchase Dobber's 2014-15 Fantasy Hockey Guide though.
Those players that do score more than 40 points tend to have some type of stretch that can get you worthwhile points but it is not very reliable. They tend to fluctuate with highs and lows of production from season to season. The one player who has been very consistent is Martin St. Louis.
While the stories are full of promise and positive feelings is it worth it to pick up a smaller skater? As a fan of the game, how could you not root for these guys? As a fantasy poolie, I don't think it is worth it.
If you already have some of these guys and they end up having a big season you should investigate trading up in size. Similar point range would suffice but a bigger body.
Let another owner take the risk and uncertainty. Let them worry about picking up the chicklets.
P.S. Don't forget to enter my free Top 50 challenge. There are only a few days left to enter. Can you beat the concensus?