0.28 (M.B.)

0.14 (C.S.)

1.31 (M.B.)

0.61 (C.S.)

0.25 (M.B.)

0.23 (C.S.)

1.05 (M.B.)

2.39 (C.S.)

0.01 (M.B.)

0.18 (C.S.)

2010-11

0.23 (M.B.)

1.23 (M.B.)

0.17 (M.B.)

1.14 (M.B.)

0.06 (M.B.)

Both players won't help a fantasy team in PIM or Blocked Shots. In terms of Hits, Smith had been trending higher until 2013-14, but at this point it looks like it's safe to say he won't be morphing into a one Hit per game player. On the other hand, we've seen enough evidence to count on Boedker for at least five Hits per every four games, with an outside shot of even more.

But the edge Boedker holds in Hits is essentially mirrored by Smith's advantage in Shots, although for what it's worth Boedker has seen his average improve significantly over the past two seasons, to the point where it's probably safe – especially with him being counted upon to replace the offense lost by the departures of Vrbata and Ribeiro – to pencil him in for two plus Shots per game again this season, with a realistic upside of even more.

With Smith, the more he shoots the more he scores – that much has held true. But the big question is what effect the likes of Roy, Ribeiro, and Neal will have on Smith's Shots totals. The answer is perhaps not much, as Roy and Ribeiro hardly shoot the puck at all, and Neal's Shots this season likely will end up being similar to the total from last season from the now departed Hornqvist.

Boedker has been on an upward trajectory with respect to PP points, whereas Smith has been trending down. On the one hand it's a positive that Smith was able to manage as many points as he did last season despite his lack of PP production on a team that actually had the 12th best PP in the league; however, unless he was especially unlucky on the PP last season (we'll examine that below) his lack of production on the PP could be a trend that continues, thus acting as a de facto ceiling on his overall points production.

Luck-Based Metrics

Note that there's no 5×4 IPP data for Boedker for 2010-11 because he didn't play enough total minutes for his data to be charted at stats.hockeyanalysis.com.

Nothing sticks out for either player in terms of Shooting % or Offensive Zone %. As far as PDO, Smith's was miniscule during his poor season, which is somewhat reassuring, as is the fact that Boedker's only excessively high PDO occurred in his 34 game stint in 2010-11.

But something interesting is lurking beneath the PDO surface for Smith. While his 1017 5×5 PDO for 2013-14 falls well within the "normal" range of 970-1030, it was actually 28 higher than Nashville's 989 team PDO at 5×5. Beyond that being concerning in general, consider also that no player who finished among the top three scorers for his team in 2013-14 had an individual 5×5 PDO that was more than 28 points higher than his team PDO.

It would be one thing if Smith already was an established NHLer with a high scoring (and high PDO) track record; but with this happening in what was his first really productive season, it does ring some alarms bells. And compounding that concern is the fact that both of Smith's IPPs for 2013-14 were above 70% (so much for the notion that he might've been unlucky on the PP last season). And there were actually only seven forwards in 2013-14 who had a greater IPP at both 5×5 and 5×4 PDO than Smith – Patrick Kane, Ryan Getzlaf, Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza, Joe Pavelski, Blake Wheeler, and David Perron. Seeing this makes me think back to the childhood song/game "one of these things is not like the others" (well, more like two – sorry David Perron….).

Playing devil's advocate, I suppose one could argue that Smith being on the same list as these proven stars (plus Perron) shows that he might be ticketed for stardom too, especially since it's actually the second time in his only three seasons that both his IPP numbers exceeded 70%. But I'm not buying it, especially with his comparatively high PDO versus the rest of his team. Instead, I think it shows that not only is it a stretch to count on Smith improving his stats in 2014-15, but he might be hard pressed to hit 50 points in the upcoming season.

Who Wins?

This is Smith's "magical fourth season," and the trajectory he's followed is one I'd normally associate with a player on the cusp of a breakout. The problem is Smith has far too many barriers and question marks (Ice Time, luck metrics, Nashville forward logjam, declining PP production) that suggest not only is it unlikely he'll see his points increase, but it's probably safer to predict he'll fall short of the 50 point mark this season.

On the other hand, Boedker isn't hampered by any of those issues or concerns. And in particular, with Ribeiro or Vrbata (both of whom he hardly played with at even strength or on the PP, according to Frozen Pool) now gone from Arizona, he'll be looked upon even more to produce.

Boedker wins this match, as for 2014-15 I'm penciling in Smith for 45 points with maybe a 35% shot at 50 but virtually no chance for 55, while I see Boedker as all but assured to hit 50 once again, with a better than 50% chance of topping 55, and a 30% chance of posting 60+ points.

Where Should Both Players Have Been Drafted in the DobberHockey Expert League?

In the recent DobberHockey expert league draft I gave some good-natured ribbing to Steve Laidlaw about drafting Smith in the 15th round (160th overall), which I thought was too early despite his multi-position eligibility, especially considering that Boedker went four rounds and nearly 50 picks later (207th overall). What do you think? Was Smith picked too early, too late, or just right? Take a look at the draft results and let us know your thoughts here in the comments or the forum thread.