Pre-Season Standings Predictions: Eastern Conference

steve laidlaw

2014-10-11

EvgeniMalkin

Taking a look at the volatile nature of pre-season standings predictions.

Never take pre-season predictions seriously. No analyst has access to all the information they need, and even if they did make a perfectly accurate prediction, things change so quickly in the NHL. Injuries, front office moves, coaching decisions, and puck luck, can all make a solid prediction completely obsolete a few months later. Predictions are great for entertainment value, to help establish baseline expectations, and to understand why certain teams are viewed the way they are, but they aren’t to be taken too seriously.

This may seem obvious, but I only say this because of how upset I’ve seen people get about pre-season predictions over the years. I’ve seen complete meltdowns in the comments sections and/or forums because someone’s predictions didn’t match theirs, and I’ve seen people claim they were "swindled" when they purchased a book or magazine that got their favourite team wrong. I even had a Ducks fan comment on my every article last year to remind me of my blown prediction. Relax!

No one is going to get the standings right, and only the most fortunate will be more accurate than simply assuming last year’s results will repeat themselves. That’s true whether it’s a casual fan, a blogger, someone who uses hockey analytics, or a long-time member of the mainstream media with locker room access. That is, after all, why they play the games.

With that long caveat in mind, I’ve assembled the pre-season predictions of all the analysts I could find that posted complete, league-wide predictions on their websites. Ultimately, I got a good mix of magazines, mainstream experts, and bloggers across the league. I tried to find exactly 100, but wound up eight short. That flared up my OCD!

Organized and ranked by division, I’ve included the average prediction for each team, along with the most optimistic and pessimistic views, and who held them. I’ve also included some interesting notes about the predictions for most of the teams, and shared my own take for all of them.

Atlantic Division

1. Boston Bruins

Average prediction: 1.39

Optimistic view: Over 68% of analysts have Boston winning the division, the second greatest vote of confidence in the league (after Pittsburgh).

Pessimistic view: There are only seven analysts who have the Bruins as low as third, most prominently Sean Hartnett of CBS. The others were Dale Lamontagne, Ashley Sorgea, John Hoven, Dave Davis, Nick Mendola and the folks at Dece Sports.

Interesting Note: Pittsburgh and Chicago were the only other teams seen as more likely to finish in the top two.

Rob’s take: I like them for the division crown as well, unless something happens to Rask.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

Average prediction: 1.98

Optimistic view: 27% of analysts have Tampa Bay winning the division.

Pessimistic view: There are actually two analysts who have the Bolts fourth, Shawn Wilken of Last Word on Sports, and Sports World’s Mike Smollins, and Matt Cane is the lone analyst ranking them fifth. 17% have them in third.

Interesting note: The predictions for Tampa Bay match St. Louis very closely.

Rob’s take: They have a fantastic upside, but I’m not as optimistic about such an unproven team. Count me among the 17% who rank them third.

3. Montreal Canadiens

Average prediction: 2.77

Optimistic view: Four analysts have the Habs winning the division, Davis, Sorgea, Brian Weidler, and Andreas Matsoukas, while 23% have them finishing as the runner-up.

Pessimistic view: There were only six analysts who have the Habs lower than third, including Brian Costello of the Hockey News, Ryan Wilson of Hockey Buzz, and Ted Starkey of SB Nation in fourth.

Interesting note: Pegging the Habs for third was the most common prediction that didn’t involve first or last, edging out Nashville’s sixth-place prediction.

Rob’s take: Again, I’m a little cooler on Montreal, who could easily slip into a fight for one of the final spots.

4. Detroit Red Wings

Average prediction: 4.49

Optimistic view: Six analysts have Detroit finishing third, including all of the previously mentioned pessimists (except Hartnett).

Pessimistic view: Ten analysts have the Wings finishing sixth, including Darryl Dobbs, and the Hockey Prospectus VUKOTA engine, and Weidler and Cane even have them as low as seventh.

Interesting note: There’s quite a big gap between the top three Atlantic teams and the Wings. There’s a similar situation in the Pacific.

Rob’s take: I’m probably the most optimistic analyst of the bunch. This is a solid playoff-bound team, especially if it stays healthy. Second place is actually a distinct possibility. These are the Red Wings, people!

5. Toronto Maple Leafs

Pessimistic view: 87% of analysts have the Sabres pegged for dead last, the strongest consensus in the entire league.

Rob’s take: They actually have the young talent to become reasonably competitive, but I bet they lean on their questionably-selected veterans instead. Paging Connor McDavid!

Metropolitan Division

1. Pittsburgh Penguins

Average prediction: 1.28

Optimistic view: Four in five analysts agreed that the Penguins to win the division, the greatest show of confidence by a safe margin.

Pessimistic view: There were actually two analysts who put Pittsburgh as low as fourth, Tyler Atwood of St. Louis Game Time, and Josh Cooper of Puck Daddy. Two of Atwood’s colleagues were among the four that have them third.

Interesting note: There were actually four other teams that at least one expert predicted to win the Metropolitan division instead, more than any other division.

Rob’s take: First place makes sense to me.

2. New York Rangers

Average prediction: 2.82

Optimistic view: 13% of analysts can see the Rangers winning the division, including Cooper, several of the folks at St. Louis Game Time, and the Netcrashers.

Pessimistic view: Predictions for the Rangers run first through seventh. The pessimists who peg them for sixth or worse include NBC’s James Neveau, Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, and JC Smith and Todd Little of the Litter Box Cats.

Interesting note: Only six other teams have expectations as wide as the Rangers, only one of which (the Avalanche) are outside the Metropolitan division.

Rob’s take: Second place sounds reasonable enough to me.

3. Columbus Blue Jackets

Average prediction: 3.75

Optimistic view: McKeen’s magazine and Matt Cane are the lone first place picks. However, the Hockey News, Darryl Dobbs, NBC’s James Neveau, and a couple of the folks at Hockey Buzz are among the 16% who have them finishing second.

Pessimistic view: No one has them in last, but there are four who predict seventh, and eight more who predict sixth. The latter includes Dave Lozo, and a couple of the folks at Puck Daddy.

Interesting note: The Columbus roster has made a major move towards possession-based players.

Rob’s take: While I completely understand the optimism, I’m a little cooler on them myself, possibly because I also see the potential in some other teams in the wide-open Metropolitan division.

4. Washington Capitals

Average prediction: 4.65

Optimistic view: Three analysts have the Capitals pegged to win the division, including most prominently the Hockey Forecaster magazine, and five more to finish runner up. That second list of optimists include Cooper, and some of the folks at Puck Daddy and St. Louis Game Time.

Pessimistic view: Much like the Islanders, there are two analysts who have them last, and eight more who have them second last, but the difference is the prominence of those analysts. In Washington’s case, Sportsnet, the EA Sports simulator, Jason Kay and Ken Campbell of the Hockey News, SB Nation’s Matt Brigidi and Evan Sporer, Shane O’Donnell of Litter Box Cats, and Puck Daddy’s Sean Leahy comprise those pessimists.

Interesting note: Washington and Philadelphia are the only teams whose predictions span every single position in the standings.

Rob’s take: I’m actually on the optimistic side of the spectrum. Not all the way up to a home seed, but definitely a strong candidate for third.

5. New York Islanders

Average prediction: 4.77

Optimistic view: Five analysts pegged the Isles for second, Ethan Goldsmith, Matt Cane, Jen LC, JC Smith, and Michael Clifford. 17% of all analysts saw them in third.

Pessimistic view: As with the Capitals, there were two analysts that placed them in last, but nine more in second last. Sports Illustrated’s Brian Cazeneuve, Bovada odds-makers, USA Today’s Power Rankings, the Hockey Forecaster, the NHL’s official yearbook, and a couple of SB Nation folks were all among the team’s detractors.

Interesting note: Predictions for the Islanders are almost dead on with the Capitals, position by position.

Rob’s take: The Islanders have a lot going for them, I just think that a playoff berth is going to be a two step process. My discredited luck-neutral model has them in first, so to me that’s just more evidence that they won’t do well. I say sixth place.

6. New Jersey Devils

Average prediction: 5.45

Optimistic view: There’s a definite movement of 15% of analysts who see the Devils finishing as the divisional runner-up. That’s about the same as Dallas, Columbus, and San Jose. That’s actually more than the combined total of analysts that have them third or fourth, so the prediction is very much a make-or-break deal. Dave Lozo, Arik Parnass, Ronnie Shuker of the Hockey News, and the majority of the folks at both Puck Daddy and SB Nation are among the bulls.

Pessimistic view: The most common prediction was seventh, where almost a third of analysts placed them, with eight more pegging them for last, behind Carolina. That latter group includes Darryl Dobbs, the EA Sports Simulation, and the Hockey Prospectus VUKOTA system. Perhaps Dobber is secretly a computer?

Interesting note: With the exception of the second-place bulls, predictions for the Devils match the Flyers almost exactly.

Rob’s take: Although not as optimistic as I was last year (when I predicted they’d win the division), I certainly see them finishing higher than sixth. Fourth place, perhaps.

7. Philadelphia Flyers

Average prediction: 5.49

Optimistic view: Seven analysts have the Flyers at second place or higher, including the official NHL yearbook, Sports Illustrated’s Brian Cazeneuve, SB Nation’s Ted Starkey, and Puck Daddy’s Jen Neale. John Hoven even has them winning the division.

Pessimistic view: While only Matt Cane has them last, the most common prediction was seventh, where over a third of analysts have the Flyers pegged.

Interesting note: Falling from third to seventh is the biggest expected tumble, tied with Colorado’s expected slide from first to fifth.

Rob’s take: I agree that things could get ugly in Philadelphia this year. They’re the new anti-possession team. This team is in bad shape whenever Claude Giroux isn’t on the ice. I agree with the majority: seventh place.

8. Carolina Hurricanes

Average prediction: 7.79

Optimistic view: James McClure has the Canes finishing fifth. There’s another 13% of analysts that see them escaping the basement into sixth or seventh.

Pessimistic view: The second strongest consensus in the entire league was Carolina finishing last.

Interesting note: The largest gap between first and second, and last and second last, are both in the Metropolitan division.

Rob’s take: Carolina’s recent injuries really seal the deal. Even if Khudobin is the starter, this team is still likely destined for last.

Look for Part Two covering the Western Conference.