Average prediction: 1.68

Optimistic view: 41% analysts have the defending Stanley Cup champions winning the Pacific division, which is actually less than Anaheim, making them the most popular choice in the league among the non-favourites.

Pessimistic view: About one in ten analysts have the Kings finishing third, which is actually half the number that predict the same for the Ducks. Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski, SB Nation’s Ted Starkey and Matt Brigidi, Shawn Willken, Andreas Matsoukas, Ken Campbell of the Hockey News and the Hockey Forecaster are all among those few pessimists.

Rob’s take: First place for the champs.

2. Anaheim Ducks

Average prediction: 1.70

Optimistic view: Just barely over half of the analysts predict another division crown for Gordon Bombay.

Pessimistic view: The top three positions in the Pacific have come in several orders, including one-in-six that rank Anaheim last among California’s powerhouse teams. That includes CBS’ Chris Peters, one of last year’s most accurate prognosticator, and James Mirtle, one of the worst. Of those that see the Ducks finishing third, the great majority have the Kings in first, rather than the Sharks.

Interesting note: The tightest race for both first and last was in the Pacific.

Rob’s take: I’m with the pessimists who rank them third.

3. San Jose Sharks

Average prediction: 2.78

Optimistic view: An outsider’s choice for first place held by only seven analysts, which nevertheless makes San Jose the ninth most likely team to win its division. Believers include the Hockey Forecaster, SB Nation’s Andrew Berkshire, Matt Brigidi, and Ted Starkey, Nick Cotsonika, James Mirtle, and Michael Clifford.

Pessimistic view: Only ten analysts see the Sharks finishing outside the top three, including Joe Haggerty, the lone voice for fifth.

Interesting note: While 11 analysts see one of the California teams finishing outside the top three, two fewer sees the same fate for one of Boston, Tampa Bay, or Montreal in the Atlantic. Montreal is also the only team with more third-place votes than San Jose, with Dallas a distant third (which doesn’t count as an additional third place vote).

Rob’s take: I actually like the Sharks for second place, ahead of the Ducks.

4. Vancouver Canucks

Average prediction: 4.46

Optimistic view: Donny Rivette of the Litter Box Cats and Adam Rickert of eDraft both have Vancouver finishing second, if you can believe it. Six more have the Canucks in third, including Owen Munro, Justin Cait, Joe Haggerty, Tyler Atwood, and James McClure.

Pessimistic view: Four analysts see the Canucks finishing dead last in the Pacific, three of whom write for St. Louis Game Time. The other is the NHL Trade Rumors site. Nine others have them finishing sixth, including Dave Lozo, and Adam Proteau and Ronnie Shuker of the Hockey News.

Interesting note: The largest gap between third and fourth is in the Pacific. Vancouver tied Detroit for the most common choice for fourth place, with a little over half.

Rob’s take: Fourth place makes sense to me.

5. Arizona Coyotes

Average prediction: 5.03

Optimistic view: Amazingly, Ashley Sorgea ranks Arizona second in the Pacific, while colleague Brian Wiedler, and SB Nation’s Tyler Bleszinski predicted third.

Pessimistic view: Eight analysts predicted dead last, including McKeen’s magazine, Brian Costello of the Hockey News, Chris Morgan, and Dave Lozo.

Interesting note: The Coyotes were the most common fifth-place prediction in the league, ahead of a tight pack that includes Toronto, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Rob’s take: I’m prepared to go with fifth, but it’ll be close.

6. Edmonton Oilers

Average prediction: 5.90

Optimistic view: Seven analysts predict a fourth place finish for Edmonton, including Darryl Dobbs, Dave Lozo, Ronnie Shuker of the Hockey News, Robb Tufts and Jason McAdams of St. Louis Game Time, Greg Niemczyk, and Nick Mendola.

Pessimistic view: Over a quarter of the analysts have the Oilers finishing dead last.

Interesting note: The Oilers are the second most common selection for sixth (and/or second last), behind only Nashville.

Rob’s take: Edmonton has a lot of potential to finish higher, but sixth is definitely the conservative prediction.

7. Calgary Flames

Average prediction: 6.43

Optimistic view: Three analysts have the Flames finishing fourth, including the Hockey Forecaster, Jen Neale, and Dave Turner. Nine more have Calgary finishing fifth.

Pessimistic view: Almost three in five analysts have the Flames dead last in the Pacific, which is actually the lowest consensus among expected basement dwellers.

Interesting note: Fewer than one in nine analysts predict one of Alberta’s teams makes the top four, and presumably the playoffs. That’s seen as being only slightly less likely than one of California’s teams falling to fourth or below.

Rob’s take: Bollig and Engelland are not the sort of high-profile acquisitions made by a team aiming for a playoff spot. One more good draft pick and then they can start going for it.

Closing Thoughts

While these pre-season predictions are mostly for entertainment purposes, they can still be useful to remind us what the expectations were when the puck was first dropped. It can help us identify which teams truly did have great seasons, which coaches were most effective, and which goalies and/or leaders were most valuable.

They can also be used to help improve our predictions in the future. Last year I had great conversations with the few analysts who predicted the success of Colorado and/or Tampa Bay, and several of the organizations who hired hockey analytics folks this summer did so because of an understanding of how their struggles were predicted. There are factors that get overvalued or underestimated, and this can be a great way to find them.

But above everything else, don’t take these predictions too seriously. Even those that are accurate right now will quickly become obsolete thanks to injuries, front office moves, coaching decisions, and puck luck. Enjoy them for what they are!

If you missed Part I covering the Eastern Conference, check it out here.