October 13, 2014

Dobber

2014-10-13

When to evaluate your fantasy hockey team, thoughts on Rick Nash, James Reimer, Adam Larsson and more …

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Happy Thanksgiving, Canada!

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Detroit, Boston, Colorado, Dallas have scored just three goals (or fewer). Time to panic? You know it’s not. But your competitors just might. The Avs haven’t scored a goal yet, so now is the time to start trying to acquire the likes of Barrie, MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog and Iginla, to name a few. You won’t get a deal on them. But at least now they’re possibly available. You’ll pay a fair price, or perhaps even overpay, but it’s easier to get it done now than after six games and the stats are all back on track.

And on the other side of the coin, New Jersey has 11 goals? Ha! While I wouldn’t put it past Michael Ryder to bounce back and score 30 goals and 55 points again (the guy just never wants to stay dead – his fantasy corpse keeps sitting up a la the Undertaker), it’s hard to imagine the scoring to continue like this. Besides, Martin Havlat is due for an injury any time now

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Generally I take 10 games to evaluate. I don’t even look at the stats on my team before then. I pay attention to injuries, line combinations, ice time (and trends in ice time), and I see who scores when I peruse the summaries. So I have a good idea what’s going on. But I don’t scroll through the team stats, or my own team’s stats. And that’s because I don’t want to get panicky. At 10 games I take a look and start my trade offers at that time. At 20 games, I start concluding that the trends that I saw at the 10-game mark are true or false. And that’s when I get serious.

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Damon Severson was my preseason pick in 2013 to become the next big thing on New Jersey’s blue line. But I was wrong – it was Eric Gelinas. And then by the end of the year, it was starting to look like Jon Merrill will take over. Well, it’s Merrill. He’s third on the team in ice time (21:54). But Severson may have leapfrogged Gelinas as well. He has two points in two games and is seeing 19 minutes per game. Gelinas is just under 16 per game.

No wonder Adam Larsson keeps getting scratched.