October 20, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-20

Recapping Sunday's NHL action including the excellent goaltending performances of Quick, Lundqvist and Andersen…

 

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Apologies for the late ramblings. I'm covering for Dobber and we got our signals a bit crossed up.

 

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Yesterday started off with a highly competitive matinee between the Kings and Wild. Once again the Wild played a ferocious possession game against one of the West's elite only for their finishing woes to cost them.

 

The Wild outshot the Kings 41-16, yet lost 2-1. First thing, you simply don't just beat up on the Kings from a possession perspective. They don't normally let that happen. But the Wild were relentless in their possession game. They've really put a lot of focus on gaining clean zone entries and early going it shows as they appear to be establishing good offensive zone possession at a high rate by activating their defensemen and carrying it over the blue line.

 

The Wild also have some absolutely tenacious fore-checkers in Zach Parise, Nino Niederreiter and Charlie Coyle to name a few. It all adds up to a game plan that has given some of last year's elite teams fits.

 

It will be interesting to see if the Wild can maintain this pace for an entire season. They've only played four games so far, one of the lightest early schedules of any team so fresh legs are on their side. They do have some great depth up front, which allows them to deploy their forwards in specific roles.

 

For instance, none of their top-six forwards skated more than 21 seconds on the penalty kill yesterday. Part of this is because of the disciplined game the Wild play taking very few penalties but also because they allow their bottom-six forwards to do the grunt work.

 

This is nothing new for the Wild as they did much of the same thing last season. It's just interesting to see it play out.

 

Parise continues to skate like his ass is on fire. He's working like a maniac, which, I mean, he is kind of a maniac but he's working maniacally, even for him. He fired off another six SOG to give him 27 for the season. He won't maintain that pace but as long as he's healthy he's getting over 300 SOG for the first time since 2009-10, which was also the last time he cleared 80 points. It's looking good on that front too.

 

If the Wild are going to move into the league's elite they are going to need more scoring. I'm sure they were counting on free agent addition Thomas Vanek to bring some of that to the table but so far he's been a bust with just one assist in four games. He has 13 SOG in those games so the chances are there.

 

I haven't watched enough Wild hockey to say for certain if Vanek is up to his old lazy tricks but it doesn't appear to be the case. He's an extremely streaky player so it wouldn't shock if it took him an entire month to get going. Plus, it's only four games in. Not worth fretting about.

 

The Wild have to be concerned about their power play. All the possession in the world won't make up for a weak power play. The Kings can attest to that. They've been a possession monster the past few years but have consistently churned out subpar regular season finishes because of their inability to score. At least part of the problem has been the power play and that's certainly an issue for the Wild now.

 

The Wild went 0/5 on the power play and still haven't clicked for a power play goal this season. That obviously won't continue to be the case but it doesn't mean their power play will be good. And if that's the case, no one in Minnesota is going to have great scoring totals, not even Parise, who again, is playing like a possessed man.

 

Niklas Backstrom got the start for Minnesota, his first of the season. He didn't get enough action for me to say how good he looked. I'm not too concerned about Darcy Kuemper losing starts though.

 

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For the Kings it continue to be That 70's Line that is churning out scoring for them. Tyler Toffoli led the way with a goal and an assist. While Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson each had a point of their own.

 

These guys are operating at an unsustainable pace considering their usage. Of the group, only Carter sees consistent top unit power play time. The other guys skate predominantly on the second unit, which has actually been the more productive unit so far but unless Darryl Sutter clues into that and starts skating the second PP more than the first, we'll see Pearson and Toffoli with dwindling scoring totals. It should be mentioned that Toffoli has been seeing top unit time with Marian Gaborik out. But it still feels like the time to sell high is now.

 

Eventually, we'll see the top line scoring more, whenever it gets intact. Marian Gaborik is currently out with an injury, to no one's surprise and Justin Williams is struggling to recreate his magic from last spring because that was otherworldly scoring.

 

With Gaborik out Mike Richards got some run on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Williams. It didn't last long as he took a 10-minute misconduct following a fight with Christian Folin and eventually finished with 19 PIM for the game. He also notched a power-play assist skating on the second unit where one of his passes took a fortuitous bounce fight to Toffoli in the slot with a flat-footed Backstrom unable to offer much resistance. You create your own luck to be sure but Richards, supposedly in the best shape of his career, looks sluggish.

 

What else can one say about Jonathan Quick? He's one of the best in the game. 40 saves on 41 shots. Just a beauty of a performance after shutting out the Blues on 43 saves just a few nights before.

 

In news unrelated to the game that was played, Slava Voynov has been suspended indefinitely by the league following a domestic violence arrest this morning. This could wind up amounting to nothing as it did for Semyon Varlamov last season but you have to respect the league's stance on this after the NFL came under fire for their backwards take on domestic violence.

 

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After a dreadful start Henrik Lundqvist is getting it on track. He shutout the Sharks on 33 shots yesterday. He did need some help from Matt Hunwick on the goal line but for the most part he played a great game.

 

Rick Nash, much like Parise, is playing great to start the season. He scored his league-leading seventh goal of the season and landed five more SOG. Like Parise, health is somewhat of a concern for a player who has been mostly healthy until last season's woes but he should clear 300 SOG once again if healthy.

 

 

Oh Ondrej Pavelec, we knew it was only a matter of time for you. He got torched for four goals on 29 shots. Only one was really his fault, the late goal by TJ Brodie, which came after Pavelec coughed up a juicy rebound on the doorstep. But juicy rebounds are Pavelec's MO. While some goalies act like a sponge, Pavelec acts more like a trampoline, porous enough to allow stuff to squeak through like a sieve but firm enough that anything that hits it square bounces out. And you know what they say about having a goalie that's like a trampoline…

 

It doesn't help that the Jets have seemingly no offense this season. Blake Wheeler is pretty much the only guy scoring. He notched an assist yesterday. Wheeler also racked up another four PIM to bring his total to 26 for the season. Who knew he was going to be so valuable in rotisserie setups?

 

You have to wonder if the Jets are missing Evander Kane. He's kind of a fluff producer of SOG but he does produce them and he scores on a high enough percentage of shots that it's worthwhile. Plus, maybe this is the year he takes another step forward. He gets re-evaluated in a week's time. I'm not optimistic that his knee will be good after that vicious collision knocked him out of the lineup but I am hopeful.

 

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Jonas Hiller put together another solid start stopping 34 of 35 shots. If the Flames can keep playing teams like the Jets and Oilers this goaltending duo might just be worth owning. I'm kidding, of course, Hiller also had a phenomenal outing against the Blackhawks last week and is helping the Flames to be one of the league's feistier teams.

 

Mason Raymond just keeps on producing and I keep on doubting. He has scored on a quarter of his shots and is only skating on the second line and second power play unit (although the power play lines have been in flux).

 

It is probably time to accept that Raymond might go off for something approaching his career-high of 53 points. But I don't think he clears it. 60 would be quite the feat for Raymond.

 

He may set a new career high for goals however. Raymond is on pace to set a career high for SOG with 234 and if he can sustain that pace while scoring at his career average of 10% the rest of the way he'd finish with 28 goals, a new high. That would be something.

 

After sitting out a contest earlier in the weekend, Johnny Gaudreau came back with a vengeance netting his first two career points, including a power-play marker. He skated 2:51 with the man advantage.

 

Joe Colborne's hot start continues with now six assists through seven games. Like Raymond, I am not believing in Colborne. Once his linemates' shooting percentages drop to reasonable levels the assists are going to dry up. That doesn't mean Colborne can't be productive. I just think that 40 points is more reasonable than the 70 he is currently on pace for.

 

Both TJ Brodie and Dennis Wideman scored for Calgary. Perhaps there is room for both of them to eat at this dinner table?

 

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Freddie Andersen continues to light it up. He recorded the first shutout of his career turning aside 28 Blues shots. He also became just the second goalie to win 25 of his first 30 NHL starts. That's a small sample size and a stat that doesn't necessarily reflect Andersen's quality of goaltending so much as the quality of the team he backstops. It does however mean great things for fantasy owners. I don't care if Andersen is the worst technical goaltender in the league so long as he keeps winning games for me.

 

Some interesting lineup changes to note for the Ducks. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Sami Vatanen were joined by William Karlsson and Cam Fowler on the top power play unit. One that continues to click at an impressive rate. The Ducks went two for three on the power play yesterday and have scored on 25% of their opportunities this season. If that keeps up, the league is in trouble because the power play was their lone weakness last season.

 

I'm not sure that either Karlsson or Fowler will hold down top unit spots though. To me, the unit is still better off with Ryan Kesler in for Karlsson. Fowler might stick but he also lost some minutes to Jakob Silfverberg who managed a power play assist in some brief top unit time.

 

Fowler, by the way, has assists in four straight games, quietly piecing together some nice fantasy production early. He's the kind of guy who could get you 40 points without much power play time simply because he's a good puck mover playing big minutes on a team that scores a bunch.

 

Vatanen had a couple of power-play goals. He's going to be a beauty this year.

 

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The Blues have to be mildly concerned about getting shutout by Western powerhouses twice in a row sandwiching a blowout of the Coyotes. We know that the Blues are a good team but if they continue to struggle with scoring against the best in the West then it's going to be the same old disappointment come spring.

 

And they've got weapons in their lineup so it doesn't make sense that this would continue. They were without two of their top centermen in Paul Stastny (day-to-day with a wrist injury) and Jori Lehtera (out sick) so that explains some of the struggles yesterday.

 

With those two out it's hard to really assess the line configurations. Two of the hottest Blues, Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko were up on the top power play with Alexander Steen and David Backes. I'd like to see that unit stick together but we shall see.

 

TJ Oshie's bumbling start to the season continues. He's skating predominantly with David Backes and some combination of Patrik Berglund or Steve Ott on LW. That's not going to be a productive line. Backes and Oshie will be hurting from a fantasy perspective if continued to be separated from Steen or Schwartz. It doesn't help that Oshie has been relegated to the second power play unit as well. At this rate he's looking at 40 points after breaking out for 60.

 

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Sorry about the absence of a Looking Ahead article this week. We are transitioning writers so there have been some logistical issues. We are set with a new writer going forward however.

 

In lieu of the Looking Ahead piece I'll quickly give you some scheduling thoughts for Week Two of the season.

 

Tampa Bay goes four times this week, including playing the only game tonight against Edmonton. With Victor Hedman on the shelf there could be value in one of Jason Garrison, Matt Carle or Anton Stralman.

 

Garrison appears to have the inside track to top power play minutes at the moment but I like Stralman the most.

 

The Lightning also recalled Jonathan Drouin. I suspect he'll be sheltered early on skating third/fourth line with second unit power play time. So don't expect much right away.

 

The Rangers have a light schedule this week skating only Tuesday and Saturday. None of their depth players are even looking attractive right now so they are a stay-away.

 

The Canadiens are playing the same schedule as the Rangers. They have some more attractive depth options but not this week. Hopefully the rest helps Carey Price get things on track as his 3.38 GAA is killing me.

 

The Ducks are skating their quirky schedule going on a rare Wednesday-Friday-Sunday home-stand that should be very productive. Look for some of their depth players come Wednesday. Guys like Karlsson or Silfverberg might make for really savvy pickups to help squeeze some extra games into your lineup.

 

Vancouver has a nice four-game week with games on Friday and Sunday, which would play very well for you in a daily-starts league. Linden Vey is the guy I'd be looking at on the waiver wire as he's skating on the top power play unit. Also, give Kevin Bieksa a look as he stole some top power play minutes from Alexander Edler.

 

Florida has but two games this week. You shouldn't be interested in owning Panthers this year anyhow.

 

Pittsburgh skates their first back-to-back on Wednesday-Thursday so if you are looking for Thomas Greiss to get his first action. It'll be this week.

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PHI Players
13.6 TYSON FOERSTER NOAH CATES BOBBY BRINK
9.2 RYAN POEHLING OLLE LYCKSELL GARNET HATHAWAY
8.3 OWEN TIPPETT SCOTT LAUGHTON TRAVIS KONECNY

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