October 24, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-24

Recapping last night's games including Lee's debut, Neal's hat-trick and more…

It sure didn't take long for Anders Lee to make an impact for the Islanders. Less than three minutes into the game he drove the net hard to setup a screen and sent the Bruin defenseman into Svedberg. Two minutes for interference. I don't mind that penalty at all. Getting to the dirty areas is what Lee does well.

I was a bit underwhelmed with his season-opener to be honest. Lee was skating on a kid line with Ryan Strome and Brock Nelson. They were good but not amazing.

I'd love to see Lee up with John Tavares and Kyle Okposo (and I do expect him there eventually) but skating on this line is good too. Nelson and Strome are quality offensive players and because of their lack of experience they'll surely receive cushy matchups.

The Islanders' third line was looking really dangerous early. Nikolai Kulemin, Frans Nielsen and Josh Bailey, that's a really solid two-way group. Only Nielsen is really fantasy worthy in shallow leagues because he gets top unit power play time but having that excellent depth is a big reason why this is a playoff team. They generated several chances in the first and opened the scoring.

They were broken up in the second however, as Cory Conacher was taken off the top line with Kulemin promoted. I loved that move. I just don't have much time for Conacher. He was skating with two of the league's best and it was like he was terrified to get involved physically. Any time there was a situation where he might take contact he pulled up and dumped or let the opponent gain possession or conceded the valuable ice. Just timid.

But once he was demoted he started getting after it. This is the big leagues. He shouldn't need a kick in the butt like that. Either way, it was awesome seeing Kulemin with Tavares and Okposo. It was amazing how much more offensive zone possession they could maintain with a third forward willing to compete physically to keep plays alive.

This seems like Conacher's last stand. Mikhail Grabovski is due to return soon and he definitely needs a spot in the lineup. Someone will have to sit. That's probably Conacher.

Lubomir Visnovsky made his return to the Islanders lineup and you could certainly tell it was his first game. He was looking awfully sluggish. I don't want to make any assessments until he has a few games to really get into shape but he was skating on the third pairing so it doesn't seem like the Islanders really want to stretch him. They did have him skating on the top power play unit though.

I'd like to talk about the power play combinations for the Islanders because they were jumbled up from the usual but they only had one opportunity in this game so it's tough to really gauge if this was something they are committed to or not.

Big revenge win for Chad Johnson in his return to Boston. He should get at least 25 starts this season just because of how brittle Jaroslav Halak has proven in his career. He's a real talent and with how competitive this team is Johnson has some real value in fantasy leagues for spot starts.

Tavares runs into a wall:

And apparently he broke the wall. Zdeno Chara left after the collision and did not return. The Bruins would not disclose the nature of his injury. Very peculiar situation.

Milan Lucic looked really solid in this one. He had a ton of pep in his step and was driving the net and the corners like a bull, just unconcerned with anyone in his path. He scored a goal and dished out six hits. Vintage Lucic performance.

The top line with Lucic and David Krejci was the only line to do much of anything for the Bruins all night. Seth Griffith, their linemate recorded his first career assist. The more comfortable he gets on that line the more intrigued I am with Griffith.

Griffith still isn't a power play option for the Bruins so you should only really be interested in deeper leagues but he has scored at every level and is a real talent. Maybe this isn't the breakout year for him but it's nice to see him getting a shot.

I still don't think that Griffith ends the season on the top line though. I think that Krejci/Lucic's eventual winger may not even be on the current roster. They will probably look for veteran help at the trade deadline.

Niklas Svedberg got the start for Boston. I like that. I want Tuukka Rask rested for his next start since he's off to such a rough start. He'll need it too if Chara is out for any extended time.

I was optimistic that Dougie Hamilton might experience a little breakout this season, say jumping to the 40-point level. It's early but nothing seems to be changing on that front. Two points through nine games. He isn't playing poorly per say, just not playing the dynamic game that we might eventually see him play that will result in big point totals.

I have got to say these have been some impressive late collapses by the Penguins. That's back-to-back games where they had impressive first period showings only to let the game get away from them. Last night's collapse was thoroughly entertaining.

With a 3-1 lead late in the third they missed opportunities multiple opportunities to ice the game as Sidney Crosby was stopped by Jimmy Howard on a breakaway and then the Evgeni Malkin line, after being dominant all game was denied multiple empty-net chances.

The Red Wings scored two goals in the final three minutes, both with the net empty, to send the game to overtime where Justin Abdelkader ended it.

Henrik Zetterberg was in MVP form in this one, sparking the Red Wing comeback with a goal and assisting on the next two. He has a four-game scoring streak going with eight points in that span. If (and that's a huge IF) Zetterberg can stay healthy, he still has the ability to be a top-10 scorer. And the fact that the Red Wings have so much young talent around helps make that possible. But we all know that he can't stay healthy. Even if he skates 82 games, it won't be at 100%.

Niklas Kronwall had himself a game, scoring two and assisting on another. You may have forgotten but Kronwall once scored 15 goals in season. I'm not saying he'll do that here. He hasn't been shooting nearly enough for that. He fired just 110 SOG last season and has just eight through seven games. If his shot rate picks up we could see double-digit goals, otherwise just be happy with the boatload of assists that are coming.

Howard was far from outlandishly good last night. In fact, he allowed a brutal goal to Olli Maatta that I'm sure he wishes he could have back. But he also made some huge saves in the first when the Penguins were pouring it on and again in the third on that Crosby breakaway I mentioned.

This is looking like a real strong season for Howard as the Red Wings are retooled and he is seemingly healthy. One area that is really helping matters is the Red Wings' penalty killing, which has killed off all 21 power plays they have faced. A big part of that is Howard, because your goalie is always the best penalty killer but the skaters in front of him are putting in work.

It was a truly impressive feat that they shut down the Penguins' vaunted power play on all three attempts last night. But don't kid yourself, the Penguins generated some great chances. Howard wouldn't allow them to finish any however.

This makes back-to-back donuts for Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist. That'll happen. I'm not concerned about either one going forward. As mentioned, they had their chances.

I really liked what I saw from the new second line with Malkin moving over to center joined by Pascal Dupuis and Blake Comeau.

Comeau adds a real nice speed/puck pursuit element for two excellent possession players in Dupuis and Malkin. He's still a limited player and you really saw that when the line couldn't bury an empty-netter but they were really good otherwise.

Comeau had two assists and might make for a nice short-term pick up. He doesn't get power play time so there's only so much upside for him.

Thomas Greiss made his first start for the Penguins. He was pretty solid until the late collapse and even then I wouldn't necessarily blame him for the loss. All of the Red Wings goals came on shots from the middle of the ice but he was beaten high on all of them so there might be a book on him.

Big win for Ryan Miller in his return to St. Louis. He stopped 31 of 32 shots as the Blues engaged in their usual puck-possession dominance especially in the third but as has been an issue for much of this season, they struggled to score. Give Miller the credit though. He was solid from what I saw.

The Canucks got a big performance from their second line as Chris Higgins, Nick Bonino and Alex Burrows recorded two points each. I'm not too excited about any of them this season however. They all only skate on the second power play, which probably caps them at 45 points for the season.

I was optimistic that Bonino would get top power play unit billing like he did in Anaheim but that job has gone to Linden Vey instead. And Vey has been pretty good there. He scored his second goal of the season last night. They have both come on the power play.

A big reason for the Blues' shot advantage last night was the Canucks' lack of discipline. The Blues had five power play opportunities but only scored on one of them. The power play has seemingly been the only area where the Blues have been able to score as they currently sit second in power play efficiency at 28% but are 26^th in scoring.

One player who is really struggling is TJ Oshie who has yet to score this season. I was hopeful that being reunited with David Backes and Alexander Steen would break the slump but while Steen and Backes notched assists, Oshie was left silent once again.

I'm not too optimistic about Oshie this season. When they get healthy again he's looking at something closer to a third-line role than the top-line gig he had last season.

I'm going to be patient with the rest of the guys who may be struggling a bit early on like Alex Pietrangelo who has just two points through six games. He's going to finish with 45-50 points so there will be more stretches like this.

What's interesting is Jay Bouwmeester starting so slowly. He normally starts off hot before cooling in the second half. So far no points through six games. Maybe he flips the script this year? He's ultimately finishing with 30-40 points when they come could be key though.

Still worried about James Neal or does that natural hat-trick to "single-handedly" beat the Blackhawks quell your concerns? That's what I thought. Impressive showing though.

The Predators mean business this season. They've got excellent goaltending and a deep blueline, which means they don't need too much offense. They can afford to be a single-line team because the guys on the rest of the lines are solid veterans.

Of course, it's kind of his job to say all the right things about how the scoring will come. Whether it actually does or not, Laviolette has to show confidence in his team, at least early on. But in this case I believe him.

From what I've seen the Predators have moved the puck well on the power play. More importantly, the players they have out there are too good to struggle. Putting Neal, Ribeiro and Forsberg on a power play with Shea Weber and Roman Josi is dynamite on paper. That doesn't always translate to success but I just cannot see how a power play with two awesome shooting options in Weber and Neal could struggle. They take one big shooter away, you hit the other one. It should seemingly be impossible to stop. We'll see.

I am starting to have some mild concerns about the Blackhawks. I haven't been in love with their play at even strength so far. Many of their top scorers have scored almost exclusively on special teams. Jonathan Toews, for instance, has yet to score at evens while Patrick Sharp and Patrick Kane each have just one point at even strength.

They are all still scoring well enough through six games and it's too early to get too concerned but I have a few doubts creeping in. I just wonder if they have the same depth that they used to and that that has hurt their stars at even strength and could continue to do so.

The one Blackhawk who hasn't struggled at all at even strength is Brandon Saad who is now tied for the team lead with six points and all of those have come at evens. That's good because Saad doesn't really see much power play time.

I was mildly optimistic that Saad could break out to the tune of say 55 points this season and that's looking good so far but I'm not sure he can keep it up if the rest of the team isn't joining in.

One guy who has really had it rough is Marian Hossa. He has just one goal so far. He's a second power play unit guy so if this team isn't going to be the juggernaut at evens that they have been his scoring will take a dive. Stay tuned.

This is some way to start the season for Darcy Kuemper. He's recorded three shutouts in four starts and has stopped 98 of the 100 shots he's faced so far. Part of this is the defense in front of him. If you only have to face 25 shots a night that makes things easier and a big reason we were high on Kuemper going into the season was this defense. Still, no one saw this coming.

I'm tempted to say that you should sell high right now simply because I'm not sure how impressive it is that Kuemper has shutout the Avalanche (twice) and the Coyotes. What if neither of these teams is very good and the Wild are merely okay? It really all depends on what you can get for him but yes I am going to go ahead and suggest you should shop him around.

The Wild power play still hasn't scored this season. I wouldn't panic but dammit if getting a few power play goals wouldn't be a great way to push Zach Parise back to the point-per-game mark. Granted, he is there now with five points through five games but it won't continue without power play scoring.

The power play will start to click though. These guys finished 16^th in power play efficiency last year, if they could replicate that, they'd do very well. Of course, these things aren't always consistent from year to year. I remember when the Blackhawks, without any major turnover, went from a top-five power play to a bottom-five power play in back-to-back seasons. Sometimes there's no rhyme or reason to this stuff.

I'd have to recommend trying to buy low on Thomas Vanek. He's streaky as hell and that's maddening but I can't see him falling short of 60 points when all is said and done. He's got two right now, after an assist last night. His owner might already be frustrated.

Martin Hanzal sat out last night's contest injured. He's day-to-day so I'm not too concerned. He's operating in more of a second line capacity anyhow with Antoine Vermette as the "#1 center" at least for fantasy purposes. Vermette's the one with the cushy linemates (Shane Doan and Mikkel Boedker) as well as the top power play minutes.

Anyways, I point out the Hanzal injury because that pushed Sam Gagner up in the lineup. Skating with the ghost of Martin Erat and Lauri Korpikoski, Gagner went minus-two while on the ice for both goals against. No surprises there.

On the plus side, this was a decent performance for Mike Smith statistically speaking as he made 27 saves on 29 shots.

How about the Calgary Flames? They are off to one heck of a feisty start to the season. There's no way I can believe that this team is a playoff team but they keep playing competitively.

You have to like the idea behind their roster construction having built from the net out. The tandem of Jonas Hiller and Karri Ramo has played really well so far with Hiller shutting out the Hurricanes last night. That's not exactly impressive since the Hurricanes stink but it's a continuation of Hiller's hot start to the season.

They've also gotten some great performances from their defensemen so far. Four of their top seven scorers are defensemen. You never see that.

Joe Colborne is their leading scorer with eight assists through nine games. He had two assists last night skating with Jiri Hudler and Sean Monahan. Monahan scored his first two goals of the season.

I can actually believe in Colborne if he keeps skating with those two but too often he's had Mason Raymond and Johnny Gaudreau as linemates. Those two, I believe in much less. He was with those two on the second power play unit still, which is disconcerting.

Given the head start that Colborne is now off to you have to give him credit for at least 45 points now but I'm not ready to buy in just yet. The opportunity just doesn't seem great enough.

Carolina… woof. That's all you can really say. Cam Ward got shelled, again. His goose is cooked.

All I really want to say about the Hurricanes though is how frustrating it is that they continue to underutilize Jeff Skinner. I mean, he and Alexander Semin are their only two good players remaining up front. They might want to give them a buttload of ice time. Nope, that would make too much sense, apparently.

Skinner skated just 14:18. And sure, he went minus-three so maybe this is about accountability but this is not a one-year trend. This has been happening plenty throughout the years. Consistently, Skinner has found himself off the top line and off the top power play unit for whatever reason. Isn't he their best offensive weapon?

Free Skinner! The Hurricanes don't deserve him. Sorry, Hurricanes fans.

The Sabres came to Los Angeles last night. In the middle of their fight a hockey game broke out. I kid, of course.

Jonathan Quick posted a shutout and has now conceded just two goals in his last four starts, which is just an outrageous run even if it has come against some of the league's most anemic offenses in Buffalo, St. Louis, Minnesota and Edmonton. Quick has still had to stand tall making 143 saves in that stretch.

Some positive developments for the Kings power play. They clicked on two of three opportunities and Drew Doughty even got in on the scoring. So did Anze Kopitar as a matter of fact. He's a sleeping giant ready to awaken.

I was actually kind of hoping that Kopitar would continue to slump so that I might try to buy low. So much for that idea. Give it a week, maybe he'll start another dry spell.

Awesome late game between the Blue Jackets and Sharks. Just wide open action with tons of scoring chances going both ways. The Sharks were probably the better team for longer stretches but Sergei Bobrovsky played really well. As importantly, the Sharks few brief breakdowns led to almost instant offense for the Blue Jackets who made little mistake on any of the chances that they did generate.

Ryan Johansen and Mark Letestu led the way with two goals apiece. Johansen would have had a hat-trick if not for one of those pesky incidental contact calls. It was a legit call though.

Johansen has scored in every game so far this season. That's a bubble that is probably going to burst but he's looking so good it seems inevitable that he at least repeats last season's 63-point performance.

Riding shotgun with Johansen were Scott Hartnell and Nick Foligno. Hartnell dropped four assists while Foligno had a goal and an assist.

It remains to be seen if Hartnell will continue skating with Johansen or not. It has frequently been Cam Atkinson in that spot. You have to figure they prefer the two big bodies with Johansen though as that's what they went with last season with Nathan Horton, Boone Jenner and RJ Umberger as Johansen's most frequent linemates.

Odds are when Jenner returns Hartnell will be back down to the second line, whereas Foligno would probably need Horton to return to get the boot and that seems unlikely given the concerns surrounding Horton's back. That puts Foligno in line for a career year. Think at least 50 points. But we need to see how power play time shakes out when Jenner and Brandon Dubinsky return.

Dubinsky's inevitable return has me thinking Mark Letestu's hot start is bound to fizzle shortly and really he hasn't been off to that hot of a start. He also probably isn't owned in your pool. The safe bet is to keep it that way.

I should also mention Atkinson. Getting bumped off the top line is a death knell for his fantasy stock. I honestly didn't even notice him in last night skating alongside Alexander Wennberg and Matt Calvert. Too bad. Here I was thinking he might breakout. It's still possible but if he's getting demotions even while being productive that's a bad sign.

Has anyone noticed Jack Johnson? I sure haven't. Supposedly he has two assists and is skating on the second power play unit but if that's the case I haven't noticed. Probably a good thing though. You usually only notice Johnson when he's doing something wrong.

Joe Pavelski is doing it again. With two goals on six shots last night his season shooting percentage jumped back above his career average of 11% to 16%. He was supposed to regress. And he still should. Going forward I am not treating him like a point-per-game guy but slightly less than that instead. So far that's proving to be a faulty strategy.

After a brief dalliance on the top power play unit Marc-Edouard Vlasic is back to his usual non-power-play duties. Matt Irwin has picked up the majority of the secondary duties instead, though Justin Braun and Jason Demers are also factors. Brent Burns is the big dog though.

No points for Burns last night but six SOG and six PIM. He always finds ways to contribute in fantasy leagues.

After putting myself out on a limb early on for Logan Couture he really disappointed in the second half as injury woes and just plain slumps derailed what looked to be another "leap" season for him. He's now got eight points through eight games and is looking great but I'm less inclined to go to bat for him. I might have to see that 70+ season before I believe it.

Antti Niemi missed a golden opportunity here. This was the first time a Shark goaltender had started back-to-back games this season. He could have grabbed a lion's share of the starts with a strong performance. Obviously, this won't cut it. Back to the tandem until proven otherwise.

Did you enjoy these marathon ramblings? How about a little more. Check out Brendan Ross's latest prospect ramblings from yesterday over at Dobberprospects.

You should also check out Dobber's latest for Puck Daddy.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 14 - 19:11	NYR	vs	S.J
Nov 14 - 19:11	T.B	vs	WPG
Nov 14 - 19:11	OTT	vs	PHI
Nov 14 - 19:11	FLA	vs	N.J
Nov 14 - 19:11	BUF	vs	STL
Nov 14 - 20:11	DAL	vs	BOS
Nov 14 - 20:11	MIN	vs	MTL
Nov 14 - 21:11	EDM	vs	NSH
Nov 14 - 22:11	VAN	vs	NYI
Nov 14 - 22:11	SEA	vs	CHI