October 30, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-10-30

Recapping last night’s NHL action including big night’s for Craig Smith and Justin Abdelkader, also Nyquist vs. Toffoli…

 

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It was pretty fortunate that there were only two games on the NHL slate last night because even though I’m not much of a fan of actually watching baseball, when the World Series goes to game seven, I am tuning in. That was a fun game. Now we can be rid of baseball until next summer.

 

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There were some really poor officiating moments in the Wings-Capitals game. The Wings had what they thought was the game's opening goal as Braden Holtby tripped over his own feet but the goal was wiped off and a penalty assessed to Luke Glendening despite not a single Wing being within even stick's reach of the netminder.

Fortunately for the Red Wings their penalty kill is really good and they killed the penalty. They did eventually concede a goal to Joel Ward while down a man but that will happen against one of the league's best power plays if you give them enough chances. On the night the Caps were one for five.

 

That might be a bit misleading though. Down one late in the third the Capitals got a power play on an uncharacteristic holding penalty by Pavel Datsyuk. That power play was negated when the refs rewarded Darren Helm for a pretty blatant dive.

When the Red Wings eventually went on the power play they'd get a sweet goal from Datsyuk who went top cheese on Holtby.

 

Datsyuk was a real catalyst for the Wings in this one. He was bumped up to the top line in Gustav Nyquist's stead and they got three third-period goals out of that line including two from Justin Abdelkader.

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If you are thinking about grabbing Abdelkader, maybe think again. We've been down this road before. Sure, he plays top line minutes but he's not normally a factor on the power play. To be fair, he was in this one skating over three minutes on the top power play unit but that's the exception, not the rule. So while Abdelkader looks enticing with five goals and eight points through nine games he's unlikely to keep this up.

 

If that's not enough to dissuade you consider then Abdelkader's current shooting percentage is 22.7%. He's just a 7% career shooter. His career highs for goals and points are 10 and 28 respectively, which he set last season.

Nyquist, by the way, well he was fine managing his fifth goal of the season before getting replaced by Datsyuk on the top line.

 

Here's an interesting question: Nyquist or Tyler Toffoli? Rick just did Alex Galchenyuk vs. Toffoli as his latest Cage Match but this seems to me an even more compelling matchup.

 

My take: Nyquist is the better bet. Toffoli looks like a world beater right now but we don't care so much about what he has done but rather what he is going to do. Last time I checked Toffoli still plays for the Kings, a mediocre offensive team with a weak power play currently ranked 18th in both categories.

 

They've been producing much better on that power play since Toffoli hopped on board, which is a good argument for him maintaining that spot but it's not guaranteed. Eventually, Marian Gaborik is going to return to claim his top unit role. And even if Gaborik doesn't steal that top unit power play spot maybe teams will at least figure out to focus more attention on That 70's Line. Again, this is not a great offensive team. The offense will spread itself out over a larger sample.

 

Meanwhile, it's looking less and less likely that Daniel Alfredsson will return meaning that Nyquist's top line/top power play role is more secure than Toffoli's.

 

And look all either one of these two does is score. Both are going to see their shooting percentages drop below the 20+% that they currently sit at now but Toffoli should see a lot less teammate luck as his on-ice shooting percentage sits at a ludicrous 17.7%. The regression monster is coming for Toffoli. Nyquist's on-ice shooting percentage is a much more sustainable 9.3%.

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There is an argument against Nyquist though. Alfredsson does still loom and as we saw in this game, he can lose his top line spot in crunch time to Datsyuk.

 

Also working against Nyquist is the fact that Detroit has been even more anemic than the Kings this season ranking 21st in scoring and 26th on the power play but this team with largely the same personnel ranked 16th and 18th in those categories last year. Alfredsson is the one key ingredient missing as the Red Wings' leading scorer from last season but healthy Henrik Zetterberg and Datsyuk would conceivably cover up for his absence.

 

I like these two about equally in a keeper but if I had to bet on one for the rest of the season I'd lean Nyquist slightly.

 

It should be mentioned how good Jimmy Howard is playing this season. He's a big reason why the Red Wings have been so strong on the penalty kill. If I trusted him health-wise I'd give him top-10 billing.

 

Note to self: Do not attempt to check Brendan Smith. You don't want to celebrate injury but Jason Chimera had his nose pushed even further out of place on that one. He was back out there once they stopped the bleeding. What a champ.

 

Smith, recorded his first assist of the season but it's becoming clear that he simply isn't a fantasy asset.

 

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The Capitals shook up their lines landing Andrei Burakovsky as top line center beside Alexander Ovechkin and Joel Ward. People are raving about Burakovsky and for good reason, he's a very skilled player who skates with excellent tenacity. He drew a penalty in this one with an excellent individual effort and ranks second on the team in penalties drawn/60 minutes.

 

But Burakovsky still has some things to learn. He had a brutal turnover in front of his own goal handing Abdelkader his first goal. We call those rookie mistakes for a reason.

Burakovsky did notch an assist to give him eight points through nine games. That will slow down as the season wears on. He won't maintain that spot as #1 center. Coaches have tried splitting up Ovechkin from Nicklas Backstrom in the past but they always wind up together eventually. Burakovsky is also merely skating on the second power play unit. That usage lends itself to 50-point upside at the maximum.

 

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