Looking Ahead 2014: Week Five
steve laidlaw
2014-10-31
Which teams have the best schedule for the week ahead.
There are no guarantees in fantasy hockey, but a pair of tried and true strategies will always pay off in the long haul:
- Bet on the best combination of talent and opportunity to achieve the desired level of production you are looking for from your roster. Talent means nothing without opportunity, and vice-versa.
- Focus on the process by which you make roster decisions, as opposed to the results they yield. Long-term success is not attainable without the knowledge of why you were successful in the short term.
With that in mind, let's take a look ahead at some teams and players to target or avoid in the coming week or so:
Love 'Em (These squads are the best bet to produce for fantasy owners)
St. Louis – The Blues feature a number of two-way forwards blessed with versatility and all-around skills. While St. Louis hasn't played up to preseason expectations, there is good reason to expect this team's output will take a turn for the better sooner rather than later. Alexander Steen is capable of more than he's shown thus far, though there is little doubt he'll ever top last year's career-best 62-point campaign, which was buoyed by a shooting percentage of 15.6% (almost six points higher than his career mark). With four games between Oct. 31 and Nov. 7, feel free to lean on a guy like Steen, especially while Blues forwards T.J. Oshie and David Backes are out with concussions. Patrick Berglund and Jori Lehtera are also sneaky-good plays while Oshie and Backes are sidelined.
Buffalo – Just kidding… Well, not really. Nothing that has happened on the ice suggests the Sabres should be considered to be anything other than "the team most likely to land all-world prospects Connor McDavid or Jake Eichel with one of the first two picks in the 2015 NHL Draft." That being said, Buffalo does play five games (and four at home) between Oct. 31 and Nov. 8. Tyler Ennis and Matt Moulson aren't bad options, thanks to the amount of power play time they receive (provided the Sabres ever score on the power play).
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed for the immediate future)
San Jose – This is not an indictment of the Sharks or the long-term fantasy outlook for their players. Simply stated, the squad doesn't play very many games over the course of the next several days. Owners may have to make some tough calls regarding fantasy-relevant San Jose star players such as Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, etc. There just won't be a ton of opportunity for them to produce in the coming week or so. Keep that in mind when making lineup decisions, especially in shallow formats (10-team leagues or 12-team) leagues. There may be bench options
Tampa Bay – Again, this comes down to schedule concerns.Other teams simply offer a greater opportunity to provide more offensive production in the coming days. The Lightning host the Washington Capitals on Nov. 1, then they don't play again until Nov. 6. Steven Stamkos is the only member of the team who should be in fantasy lineups during the first week of the month.
Bet On 'Em (These players are owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues or less and may be worth a look)
Radko Gudas, D, Tampa Bay (Available in 78% of Yahoo leagues) – Gudas is not someone capable of providing a significant amount of goals, assists or points on the power play. He lacks the requisite puck skills and skating ability to ever be an offensive force in the NHL, but that doesn't stop the young Lightning defenseman from providing fantasy value. No defenseman totaled more penalty minutes than Gudas did a year ago, and he still managed to score 22 points in his age-23 season.He's also extremely valuable in leagues that count hits and blocks. Gudas is a must-add in those formats and someone to consider in deeper points leagues.
Buffalo 4.20 – four games – all at home
Steer Clear
San Jose 2.11 – two games – VAN and DAL
Tampa Bay 2.11 – two games – CGY and CBJ
Boston 2.31 – two games – FLA and EDM
New Jersey 2.65 – three games – STLx2 and DET
New York Islanders 2.71 – three games – all on road
Monday, November 3 to Sunday, November 9
Best Bets
St. Louis 4.21 – four games – NYR, NJDx2 and NSH
Detroit 4.11 – four games – OTT, NYR, NJD and TBL
New York Rangers 4.04 – four games – three at home
Edmonton 3.85 – four games – PHI, BOS, BUF and NYR
Vancouver 3.47 – four games – COL, SJS, LAK and ANA
Steer Clear
New York Islanders 2.71 – three games – all on road
Boston 2.31 – two games – FLA and EDM
Nashville 2.80 – three games – all on road
New Jersey 2.65 – three games – STLx2 and DET
Carolina 2.85 – three games – CBJx2 and WAS
Tuesday, November 4 to Monday, November 10
Best Bets
Detroit 4.11 – four games – OTT, NYR, NJD and TBL
Calgary 3.99 – four games – WAS, TBL, FLA and CAR
Edmonton 3.85 – four games – PHI, BOS, BUF and NYR
Carolina 4.06 – four games – CBJx2, WAS and CGY
New Jersey 3.51 – four games – STLx2, DET and BOS
Steer Clear
New York Islanders 2.71 – three games – all on road
Nashville 2.80 – three games – all on road
San Jose 2.91 – three games – VAN, DAL and CHI
Minnesota 2.94 – three games – PIT, OTT and MTL
Toronto 2.95 – three games – ARI, COL and NYR
Wednesday, November 5 to Tuesday, November 11
Best Bets
New York Rangers 4.10 – four games – three at home
San Jose 4.01 – four games – VAN, DAL, CHI and FLA
Buffalo 3.96 – four games – three at home
Edmonton 3.90 – four games – BOS, BUF, NYR and NSH
Tampa Bay 3.87 – four games – CGY, COL, DET and CHI
Steer Clear
Toronto 1.90 – two games – COL and NYR
Philadelphia 2.21- two games – FLA and COL
Boston 2.26 – two games – EDM and NJD
Los Angeles 2.26 – two games – NYI and VAN
Nashville 2.86 – three games – two on road
Thursday, November 6 to Wednesday, November 12
Best Bets
San Jose 4.01 – four games – VAN, DAL, CHI and FLA
Edmonton 3.90 – four games – BOS, BUF, NYR and NSH
Tampa Bay 3.87 – four games – CGY, COL, DET and CHI
Vancouver 3.67- four games – SJS, LAK, ANA and OTT
New Jersey 3.66 – four games – STL, DET, BOS and MIN
Steer Clear
Detroit 2.21- two games – NJD and TBL
Montreal 2.21- two games – MIN and WPG
Philadelphia 2.21- two games – FLA and COL
Toronto 2.85 – three games – COL, NYR and BOS
New York Islanders 2.85 – three games – two on road
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