Geek of the Week – Tommy Wingels

Terry Campkin

2014-11-02

Tommy Wingels

The Geek on Tommy Wingels: hockey’s new multi-cat fantasy stud.

Three nights ago, I ran up against a multi-cat stud in my keeper league and I just had to rush to Fantasy Hockey Geek to see what was going on. It was a typical Thursday and I was out with some buddies watching some hockey (and stat tracker) while chirping about how much of their money I was going to take. My keeper league matchup was going ok until I started getting ruined by the one-man fantasy match-up killer: Tommy Wingels.

Wingels has always had at least a little bit of fantasy value but more in a spot start kind of way. Coming in at a little under three hits per game for his career, Wingels would make for a good Sunday add to try to push you over the top in that category and as a 38 point scorer, there was a chance he would put something on the board for you as well. Wingels was always somewhat limited though because he didn't get a ton of PP time and his shot rate was below my Mendoza line (I will seldom own a winger who shoots less than 200 times over 82 games). I may be a little late to the game on this one, but I learned on Thursday that things are changing for Wingels and while he continues to excel in the areas that he was always good at, he is also improving in the areas he was challenged. Let's take a look at what the FHG numbers showed me:

(12 Team Yahoo! H2H league measuring G, A, +/-,PPP, SOG, SHP, Hits)

Rank	Name	G	A	+/-	PPP	SHP	SOG	Hits
17	Tommy Wingels	5	3	-1	3	0	45	46

Incredibly, Wingels has been operating as the 17^th most valuable player in this league so far this season. No wonder he is single handedly flipping three categories on me! With early season breakout performers, you always need to be careful with small sample sizes but there a number of promising things I see with Tommy to make me think that he is worth targeting:

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The hits are still there: With 47 hits in just 12 games, Wingels is actually hitting closer to four times per game this season which is an incredible number for a guy who can put the puck in the net. Actually, it's an incredible number for anybody: as of Saturday morning Wingels is actually second in the entire league in this department! The value of this is enormous when you consider the offensive output of the other guys with similar hit numbers like Matt Martin (1pt, 48 hits), Roman Polak (1pt, 43 hits) and Robyn Regher (2pt 42 hits). Clearly: most of the big hitters in the league don't get huge amounts of points. Conversely, a lot of the big point getters in the league don't get a lot of hits. Guys like Wingels are a rare breed and the FHG math shows us just how valuable that is.
The shots are coming: Here is the main reason to like Wingels' early season value – he isn't doing it with a fluky shooting percentage or random goals. He is pumping shots at the net at a frantic rate with 45 in 12 games, tying him with elite trigger-man Zach Parise, only 3 behind league leader Steven Stamkos. That is some crazy good company he is in. No, I don't think he will be a top three shooter by year end but clearly he is going to come above the Mendoza line this year. The shots are so key because not only are the shots themselves valuable to win you your shots category but shots also lead to goals. Wingels has five goals already this year which may seem like an anomaly but when you look at the volume of shots he is firing, the goals make sense. He is only converting 11% of his shots into goals which is a completely sustainable rate and only slightly above the league average (almost exactly the league average for a winger). If he keeps shooting, he will keep scoring.
Powerplay: With three powerplay points already in the early going, Wingels is well on his way to demolishing his previous career high of five. The lack of PPP in previous seasons was a huge drain on Wingels' value but it seems like he is ready to contribute with the man advantage this year. He is getting some time on the top unit but it has been mostly PP2 minutes thus far. The key though is that he is up to 1:52 per game on the man advantage vs 1:13 last season (a 53% increase). If Wingels continues to perform as he has in the early going, those minutes may even go up. More powerplay time means more powerplay points, more shots and more goals.
Line-mates: This is another huge factor indicating that Wingels is for real. A quick look at Frozen Pool shows me that Wingels is playing with Marleau and Couture which are two of the better line mates you can find in the league. When Brent Burns was moved back to D, a number of folks in the analytics community thought that it was a bad move for the Sharks – myself included. Burns is an absolute beast of a forward who drives possession and is virtually uncontainable on the forecheck. It seems to be working out for the Sharks though, as Burns is lighting it up with 13 points in 12 games and Tommy Wingels is stepping right up into a top-6 role and putting up huge production.
Points: I almost didn't even mention this, but eight points in 12 games is very solid production (a 55pt pace) and based on everything I outlined above, it is very sustainable. 55 points may not sound like the greatest output in the world to a casual fan but only 64 NHLers eclipsed that mark last season and with the shots and hits that Wingels adds to go along with the points he really is offering elite level fantasy value. We are talking David Backes or Dustin Brown (when he was still good) type value if he is able to maintain it. In Austin Wallace's most recent top 100 Roto-Rankings, he had David Backes as the 4^th best player and Wingels had yet to make the list. This tells me that there is still some time to get in on Wingels but I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the next list and possibly even crack the top 50.