November 3, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-11-03

Why the Flames defense is legit and so is the Coyotes, buying low on Wheeler and more…

Laidlaw here covering for Dobber. Excited to have a healthy slate of Sunday games to cover while I fill in. Especially since we've just got the Blues and Rangers going tonight. Let's check in on the action.

The early slate featured a couple of games with our #1 and #2 contenders for Connor McDavid and also featured a couple of surprising upsets.

The Carolina Hurricanes took it to the visiting Los Angeles Kings. I mean they really won that game. Just outworked a team that doesn't often get outworked. But, you know, this was the third game in four nights on a road trip for the Kings. In NBA circles that's what's known as a "scheduled loss." I don't think you can as far as using that term in the NHL, simply because there is so much parity but in this case it feels right.

What's crazy is that the Kings had reinforcements with both Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik returning to the lineup for the first time yesterday. Their fresh legs didn't matter much as the rest of the team offered little jump.

Kopitar looked really good and jumped right back onto the top power play unit as well as skating some big minutes on the penalty kill. He was second only to Jeff Carter in overall ice time among forwards but his early scoring woes continued despite generating some solid chances.

Gaborik looked rusty. He wasn't skating with the usual fluidity that you normally expect. His groin might be good enough that he could play but he's clearly still hurting.

They had Gaborik back out on the top line with Kopitar and Justin Williams but they sheltered his minutes giving him just 48 seconds of power play time and just 13:49 overall. It might take a few games before Gaborik gets it going so there is a buy low window here. I do have concerns that he re-aggravates the injury though. Gaborik is like the #1 Band-Aid Boy and groin injuries have a habit of not going away. Since he is clearly not at 100% yet, I think that puts his risk of re-injury even higher.

It should be mentioned that Williams looked awesome. He notched an assist to go along with six SOG. His upside is going to be limited so long as he is skating on the second power play unit but I've yet to see a game where I haven't been impressed with Williams.

So what if Williams isn't going to score like he did in the playoffs? Williams is still averaging three shots per game, which is right where he should be so the scoring will come. He'll give you around 50 points with 240 SOG and a healthy plus/minus. That's going to be valuable in most fantasy leagues especially if you can get in now before he has a few hot streaks.

Elias Lindholm had himself a game for the Hurricanes. He scored the game-winner and added an assist as well. That gives him his second multi-point game is as many contests and also his fourth straight game with four SOG.

I want to caution against getting too excited. Lindholm is a really nice player with some healthy fantasy upside but his current situation isn't a great one. He is skating on the second line and second power play unit with Nathan Gerbe and Riley Nash.

Those guys are fine and actually showing some glimpses of breaking out into that 40-50-point range that they have upside for but it's still too early to know if they can demonstrate the consistency necessary to get there. Certainly Gerbe looked great last night, finishing with an assist and six SOG. He has points in both games since returning from injury and has 11 SOG in that span. Certainly he is an asset to Lindholm as a linemate. But Gerbe never does produce consistently so it's hard to get overly excited.

Back to Lindholm. While it's awesome that he has managed four straight games of four SOG, those games came against a worn-out Kings team, as well as the Coyotes, Oilers and Canucks. I remain underwhelmed.

To be fair, I did mention in the pre-season that I was cautiously optimistic about Lindholm but that was mostly because the Hurricanes had been trying him on the top power play unit. With Lindholm on the second unit I have nowhere near the same optimism. It's worth mentioning that the second power play unit did skate more than the top unit yesterday and they certainly earned it but you won't see that continue throughout the season.

The Hurricanes did get much of anything out of their top line of Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner but they also were tasked with facing the Kings' 70's line for much of the game and played them to a stalemate. It's nice to see Skinner not being wasted on the third line, which has happened to him all too often in his career. I wouldn't expect to see him remain quiet on the top line much longer.

The Hurricanes also had Alexander Semin sit out his second straight game. Seeing as this was their second straight (and only) win they might keep Semin out for a little bit longer. It'll be interesting to see where Semin fits in when he returns. I imagine he eventually slots into Skinner's spot on the top line because Hurricanes coaches always find an excuse to bury Skinner. Skinner needs to take advantage of this opportunity.

Cam Ward has now won two in a row, which gives him a huge leg up on Anton Khudobin for the starting gig. Take note if you are a masochistic fantasy owner and have a vested interested in these goalies.

The Sabres stole two points from the Red Wings that I'm not sure management even wanted. They tied the game on a late goal by Chris Stewart, survived overtime controversially and then won the skills competition. All that after getting dominated in shots 38-21.

That tying goal was Stewart's first of the season. He's being used in a secondary role, which makes being a fantasy asset just impossible on this team. He needs a trade to get him going and I'd love to see him on the Bruins' top line but Seth Griffith is looking pretty good there right now.

Tyler Ennis, probably the only Sabre I am really interested in, notched an assist on the tying goal. I'm not sure he has enough help to score any more than 40 points this season.

Tyson Strachan assisted on both Sabre goals but I remain uninterested in him. Unless your league scores hits and blocks and is impossibly deep you keep Strachan on the waiver wire. Sure he has three assists in four games but he hasn't fired a shot on net yet so this is probably just random luck.

Credit Michal Neuvirth for some stout goaltending. It's going to be hard to tell if Neuvirth and Jonas Enroth are really playing that well or if they are merely able to look good seeing so much rubber. I think it's impossible to boast a poor save percentage seeing this many shots but there's value here if your league counts saves.

Johan Larsson made his season debut but skated just eight minutes on the fourth line.

I think that Detroit really got ripped off here. Not only did they dominate the game but they also had a goal in overtime disallowed erroneously for goalie interference. That's two such phantom calls in the last three games for Detroit. It didn't cost them against the Capitals but it surely did in this one. I don't know if this is delayed payback for the Tomas Holmstrom era or what but Wings fans must be frustrated.

Pavel Datsyuk had yet another awesome game. He is on fire right now. He had a goal, an assist, drew a penalty in overtime and setup the disallowed goal. He has a point in every game since joining the lineup and 10 points through six overall. Enjoy it. I'm not sure he has many years left.

Johan Franzen made his return to the lineup. He was scoreless but did fire four SOG. He was right back onto the top line with Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist.

Another horrible start to the game for the Canadiens but they sustained that terrible play throughout the game against the Flames. You cannot like what you are seeing from the Canadiens. Only the Arizona Coyotes have allowed more first period goals against so far. You simply cannot rely on being able to comeback after slow starts. It really bit them here.

The Canadiens jumbled their lines looking for a spark but that obviously did not work. Dale Weise skating alongside Max Pacioretty and David Desharnais did contribute an assist on Pacioretty's fifth goal of the season but that was too little, too late.

PA Parenteau found himself skating on the third line in this setup and went scoreless. He's gone scoreless in six straight now and I'm not happy. I don't know how Parenteau continually finds himself skating on the third line for teams even though all he does is produce when given a top line role but it seems to happen at every stop.

I get it if coaches just don't think he's that strong of a player. There's no question that Parenteau is limited in what he is good at but the guy can score and he can play with other elite skill players. If you've got the guy on your roster with those skills you don't use him in a third line role and expect things to work out. I'm starting to sound like Dobber comparing Michael Frolik to a Ferrari so I'll slow my role. Suffice it to say, I don't like Parenteau unless he's skating with Pacioretty and Desharnais.

The Flames are the real story here as they continue to play a highly competitive brand of hockey. As is the case with most competitive teams, it all starts with their defense.

Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie went off in this one. Giordano scored a goal and an assist, while Brodie notched three assists to take sole possession of the team lead in scoring. It's crazy to me how much scoring Calgary is getting out of their defensemen. Their top four have a combined 37 points out of their top four defensemen right now. This is starting to look like Nashville redux.

I am naturally skeptical about this all continuing. Right now the Flames are scoring at a very high rate (12^th in the league at 2.77 goals per game) and clicking on a high percentage of their power play chances (tied for 11^th at 20%). That's all well and good. If we concede that the Flames will sustain that pace I still have difficulty believing that Giordano and Brodie will score on a third of the Flames' goals. So there is some regression coming.

That said, it's time to accept that Brodie and Giordano are a legit #1 pairing, somewhere in the realm of great pairings like Josi-Weber in Nashville. And if you aren't ready to give them that kind of credit, well that's why Giordano continues to be one of the most underrated defensemen in the game and Brodie is right there with him.

How do we frame this in a way you can use in your fantasy league? Can they both get 50 points this season? Sure. Will they? I doubt it.

Remember last season when the Blues had three defensemen on pace for 50 points as late in the season as December? Well only one of them (Alex Pietrangelo) got there. It's just way too difficult for defensemen to continually get in on scoring, no matter how integral they are to team offense.

📢 advertisement:

If I had to wager right now I'd say Giordano gets 50 and Brodie gets 45. Dennis Wideman, meanwhile, could get 40.

Josh Jooris scored two filling in with all the injuries up front while Markus Granlund added one of his own. The forwards worth noting though were Johnny Gaudreau and Jiri Hudler. They each notched a pair of assists. They'd be the two Flames forwards I'd be interested in for fantasy purposes as they are the only two I can see cracking 50 points this season though it will probably only be Hudler who does so.

Gaudreau has five points in the last three games. He is looking more and more comfortable at this level and is getting more and more ice time to reflect that. He has skated over 15 minutes in each of the last six games and has been seeing more power play time. For instance he skated 5:47 with the man advantage last night, though some of that had to do with Montreal's lack of discipline.

Through one month of the season Jonas Hiller is performing like a top-five fantasy goalie. I own him in the Experts League and would love to sell high but no one is biting just yet. It hasn't been long enough to shake off the stink from last year where he got outplayed by three separate goalies and put up middling stats for the team with the best record in the West. The Flames also have to shake off some of their own stink before people start to believe.

The big question is about who to target with such a trade anyhow. The biggest slumpers in goal right now are Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist and Tuukka Rask. No one questions their pedigree. So you are stuck aiming at someone in the range of Braden Holtby, Kari Lehtonen and Jaroslav Halak who all come with their own questions about consistency and team quality. Maybe you could make a predatory deal for the injured Sergei Bobrovsky? I'd move Hiller for any of those guys in a heartbeat.

The Coyotes and Capitals got themselves into quite the shootout last night with Arizona coming away with a 6-5 win. I'd love to blame it on both teams icing their backups but neither team's starter had been doing all that great so far. On the plus side, you can take solace that your struggling starter didn't get shelled again.

The Capitals really went off in the first period jumping out to a 3-1 lead before conceding five in a row to the Coyotes. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom went off with three assists apiece. Ovechkin also added a goal to get back up to a point-per-game pace.

There had been rumours about Tom Wilson being the planned winger for Backstrom and Ovechkin. He finally got his chance and scored a goal and an assist. He saw basically no power play time though so the upside is limited in the short-term but long-term he could take over Troy Brouwer's net-front role. Wilson also added four PIM and five hits for an awesome rotisserie game. Games like this are why Wilson is one of the more coveted prospects in rotisserie leagues. Remember, he is only 20 years old. Lots of room for growth.

You know how Andre Burakovsky has been playing really well in a second-line role for the Capitals. Well they rewarded him with just 7:42 last night on the fourth line. But it makes some sense if the Caps were going to move Wilson up then someone would have to drop back. I guess Burakovsky's audition with Ovechkin really didn't go that well. It's awesome timing because I didn't even pick Burakovsky up for a Sunday boost in my head-to-head league or anything. Oh wait, I did do that… *beats head on keyboard*

I hope you remained patient with Shane Doan. He and the rest of the Coyotes top line went off last night. Doan had two goals and an assist, while Vermette had a goal and two assists. Mikkel Boedker, meanwhile, had "just" two assists. Outside of Martin Hanzal those three are the only Coyotes forwards I'm interested in owning in your average league. Just not a lot of scoring to be had.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 14 - 19:11	NYR	vs	S.J
Nov 14 - 19:11	T.B	vs	WPG
Nov 14 - 19:11	OTT	vs	PHI
Nov 14 - 19:11	FLA	vs	N.J
Nov 14 - 19:11	BUF	vs	STL
Nov 14 - 20:11	DAL	vs	BOS
Nov 14 - 20:11	MIN	vs	MTL
Nov 14 - 21:11	EDM	vs	NSH
Nov 14 - 22:11	VAN	vs	NYI
Nov 14 - 22:11	SEA	vs	CHI