November 4, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-11-04
Vladimir Tarasenko scores the goal of the year, why he is a legitimate breakout star and more…
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Heck of a game between the Blues and Rangers. It certainly felt like New York might have the Blues' number having beaten them earlier in the year and then jumping out to a 1-0 lead after one period by dominating the play, winning the shot battle 15-4.
But the Blues righted the ship in the second period and knotted things up. Then things opened up in a back-and-forth third as the teams swapped leads before going into overtime tied 3-3. Overtime decided nothing and it was off to the skills competition. I only care who won because I have Brian Elliott in a couple of pools, otherwise it would be mostly irrelevant to me.
Elliott was awesome in this one. The game gets away from the Blues in the first if not for his stout goaltending.
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On the other side of the ice Cam Talbot was in for just his second start of the season. He's now lost both games but I don't think that's reason not to use him. I know Henrik Lundqvist is a workhorse but studies are showing that it's increasingly valuable to rest your starters and use your backups. With Lundqvist struggling early once again it makes sense to utilize Talbot more frequently.
Of course, the Rangers have only had one back-to-back so far and only have 11 more this season. With the schedule a little bit looser this season given the lack of Olympics or lockout that compressed the last two seasons there are less back-to-backs and more rest available. Talbot may not really become valuable until March when the Rangers have four back-to-back scenarios and Lundqvist might be worn out by then.
To me, it makes more sense to utilize Talbot now so that you have Lundqvist fresher come March when the games become even higher leverage.
But the Rangers probably need Lundqvist right now. They basically have only one line with Derek Stepan injured and are also out their franchise defenseman and captain in Ryan McDonagh. Things could really get away from them in a hurry.
That one line is sizzling though. Rick Nash is second in the league with nine goals this season. He's a sell-high candidate though given his exorbitantly high shooting percentage of 25% at the moment. He had a sweet saucer pass to Martin St. Louis for the go-ahead goal late in the third.
Brassard is coming off a great season and is off to a good start here but I don't trust the Rangers' depth. I suppose they do have good secondary wingers in Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello even if Brassard doesn't stick with the top line but I have my doubts.
Zuccarello missed the contest last night with an undisclosed injury. I wish I had more but I've got nothing. Lee Stempniak stepped onto the top power play unit in his absence. Could be worth a pickup if we learn Zuccarello is out for an extended period, Stempniak is already having a quietly valuable season as a depth guy in really deep leagues. Stempniak has busted off over two SOG per game, which is nothing new for those of you who have followed his career. Not much scoring upside beyond a few random spurts though.
Roto-Monster Alert: Dylan McIlrath is here and he is ornery.
McIlrath made his season debut last night and made a dent with nine PIM after a roughing minor, a tripping minor and a fighting major. This was his third career game and he now has 16 PIM in that span. He also has 290 PIM in 107 AHL games. His pugilism is for real. McIlrath also recorded two hits and three blocked shots last night. If you are looking for an answer to Radko Gudas in your rotisserie league, McIlrath could well be it.
I doubt McIlrath is a long term solution. He's still a turnstile defensively. But the Rangers are banged up and really don't have any other options right now so take this opportunity and ride it as long as you can.
Dan Girardi is the lone defenseman skating on the Rangers' top power play unit. He doesn't offer much upside here but he can score at a 30-point pace while McDonagh is out. If that has value in your league run with it.
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Did you think I was going to skip it? Vladimir Tarasenko scored the goal of year last night. Words can't even describe its beauty. Who pulls off the "Forsberg/Nilsson" move mid-game, as in not on a penalty shot/shootout? Tarasenko, that's who. (By the way, Nilsson also pulled this mid-game, which you can watch if you click on his name above.) Just bask in the glory of this goal:
What would really let these guys bust out is if they got the full top unit power play treatment but all too often they are skating on the second unit. It technically doesn't matter what unit they skate on in St. Louis because Ken Hitchcock simply rotates his units evenly much like the Bruins do but I am calling for Schwartz and Tarasenko to get the top unit billing you see on so many teams.
Hitchcock would argue that that would be unnecessary. St. Louis was tied for fifth in power play efficiency last season and are ranked seventh this season while clicking at an even higher rate. They don't need to ride any one unit. That's fair, I'm just a selfish fantasy player. Actually, I'm not even being selfish, I don't have Tarasenko on any of my fantasy rosters. I just want to see him achieve his potential because why not? He's an absolute stud. Maybe he gets 70 points this season in spite of Hitchcock.
I'm not saying that off-hand either. I really believe that Tarasenko can get there in spite of his usage. Did you know that he's sitting fifth in the league in SOG behind just Patrick Sharp, Claude Giroux, Steven Stamkos and Alex Ovechkin? He's at 49 SOG in just 11 games. That's over four per game, or a 320+ pace. That's superstar type shooting. I am fully on board here.
There is some regression coming. Tarasenko's on-ice shooting percentage is at 13.3%, which is completely unsustainable and since we know he doesn't get enough power play time, he won't have that to buoy him throughout the season. Or does he? He's already at four PPP this season and is on pace for near 30 for the season.
The good thing about the forward depth in St. Louis is that the Blues can skate their veterans Paul Stastny, David Backes and Alexander Steen against their opponents' top lines and shield Tarasenko/Schwartz from elite matchups. I don't even think they necessarily need shielding but more favourable matchups will obviously help Tarasenko's fantasy numbers.
We do still need to see if Tarasenko can sustain this shot output and if he can stay healthy. He hasn't played a season without missing double-digit games so far and his career high was 64 games last season. I've been down on players because of "stamina" concerns in the past though and have been burned. It should be in the back of your mind but I wouldn't say that Tarasenko is certainly unreliable. He's one worth giving the benefit of the doubt. Don't sell high unless you are getting a bonafide superstar, say Patrick Kane for instance. Otherwise, hold on tight. It's clearly going to be a fun ride.
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As promised, this Tuesday you'll get your weekly Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy race update:
1. Anton Stralman – Plus-13