November 13, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-11-13

Why you should pick up Franson, Kopitar and Gaborik are heating up and more…

 

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I’m off to Edmonton this weekend to visit my grandparents so Dobber will be covering my ramblings for the next couple of days. Safe to say you guys are in good hands. Here’s a question: do I dare check out an Oilers game?

 

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Is Cody Franson still available in your league? If he is, (and at 29% ownership in Yahoo! leagues there's a good chance that he is) then he'd make an excellent pickup. Franson notched a couple of assists to extend his scoring streak to five games. I was fortunate enough to pick him up on Sunday to take advantage of the Leafs' packed schedule this week and he has been a hit.

 

I'm not sure that Franson is actually that good of a player but he has good offensive skills and the Leafs are deploying him in an optimal manner for fantasy owners. He is skating 2:38 per game on the top power play unit and is skating most of his even-strength shifts with Dion Phaneuf who has become a more effective player now that he's not being asked to be a big-time offensive player.

 

Half of Franson's points this season have come on the power play, which is where you'll see him do most of his damage – 38% of his career points have come with the man-advantage. The Leafs boast the league's sixth most efficient power play this season, which means you can count on that production to continue.

 

Franson looks like an easy bet for 40 points, which would be a career high but it would also push him into the top 30 or so defensemen scorers you'd have to figure so there is little reason for him to be so widely available.

 

Jake Gardiner was skating on the top power play unit with Franson last night and I sure liked what I saw. It's been Phaneuf in that spot more often than not but I like Gardiner to get more and more chances there. It's easy to say after a blowout but he looked good there.

 

And if it isn't Gardiner on that top unit then I'd be fine with Morgan Rielly. Basically, anyone but Phaneuf. Phaneuf just doesn't have the puck-moving skills of these other three. He's always been a power play guy because of his big shot but like we've seen with Jason Garrison, a big shot isn't very useful if you aren't hitting the net and struggle to move the puck when teams key on you. And the reality is that Phaneuf has been shooting less and less these past few seasons. It's why he is a rapidly depreciating fantasy asset.

 

Sure, Phaneuf has been productive so far this season and he'll always have value in leagues that count PIM and hits but with just 263 shots in the last 144 regular season games (that's since the start of the lockout shortened 2013 season in case you think 144 games is an oddly arbitrary end point.) That's just 1.82 SOG/game. Still good for a defenseman but he used to average over three SOG/game. You can practically see the offense draining out of him.

 

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The Leafs really banged up the Bruins but Tuukka Rask really didn't have it last night anyhow. And yes, full marks to Phil Kessel for gouging him with two wicked wristers but Rask absolutely needed to get yanked. It sure didn't help the Bruins' effort any though. The Leafs really had that game for the full 60 minutes.

 

Torey Krug has been back for a couple of games now but it's tough to say that his return has really helped the Bruins. He's at his best when the Bruins are at full strength and have the two-way horses to put Krug in a position to use his offensive instincts and quality shot from the point. It doesn't really work if they can't sustain offensive zone pressure and Krug has to come back in transition. Krug is also skating with a rookie in Zach Trotman, which doesn't make for a very dependable pairing.

 

I think Krug is still banged up a little too. His finger might be good enough for him to play but no doubt his grip isn't what it would be at 100%. That affects passing, shooting and even a willingness to get into traffic. There's just going to be pause when you aren't completely confident your hand is going to hold up. So I wouldn't be shocked if he struggles for the next little while, which is why I've left him on my IR in the Experts League.

 

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I love the Kings-Ducks rivalry. What an awesome game last night. Both teams played with excellent speed, checked hard and created a playoff atmosphere. It helps that the crowd really got into it as well. And there was plenty of scoring too. The game was tied 5-5 after the Ducks clawed back from a two-goal deficit for the second time in the game to force overtime. Overtime was just as fun but solved nothing. Apparently one of the teams got an extra point for some reason but all I cared about was having witnessed an awesome game between two of the league's best.

 

Freddie Andersen did not show up for this one like the rest of his teammates did. He got beat by Anze Kopitar on a penalty shot, which will happen but the next two were kitten soft. Bruce Boudreau was quick to yank him and he gets full marks because it clearly kept his team engaged. I don't think Jason LaBarbera was that much better as the two goals he allowed weren't particularly strong chances but the Ducks were resilient. It doesn't particularly matter anyhow because I think we all can agree that LaBarbera isn't much of a threat to Andersen's starting position.

 

The Ducks truly played amazing outside of their goaltenders. Ryan Getzlaf was a beast carrying a top line with Emerson Etem and Devante Smith-Pelly (and at times Patrick Maroon). He landed seven SOG, scoring one goal late in the third period to force overtime.

 

Corey Perry appears set to return now that his mumps are no longer contagious. It will be interesting to see who gets dropped from the top line. Presumably it will be Etem but maybe both Etem and Smith-Pelly are dropped in favour of Maroon who did hang onto his spot on the top power play unit.

 

I should mention how impressed I was with Maroon. I didn't know the big man had such good hands. He made several moves with the puck in the offensive zone I simply wasn't prepared for. But if I had to guess he sticks on the fourth line while Etem gets scratched when Perry returns. And Etem played well last night. Such is the awesome depth of this Ducks team.

 

 

Jamie McBain made his season-debut for the Kings as they've brought him in to fill that sixth defense spot with Slava Voynov suspended and Robyn Regher hurt. This is merely a band-aid as we can be pretty darn certain McBain just can't hack it at the NHL level. Tough game for him to be making his debut though so we'll see what the future brings.

 

If Voynov is done for the year though you could certainly see the Kings making a move to shore up their blueline and it wouldn't surprise me if Mike Richards or Jarret Stoll were the bait. I like both of these players and I'm sure the Kings do too but they are the third and fourth centermen on the team, which is an expensive redundancy. That can be valuable come playoff time when injuries hit but if the Kings think that Jordan Weal is perhaps worthy of a call-up to play on the fourth line then they can afford to drop an expensive centerman for a permanent solution on defense.

 

I'm loathe to create trade rumours without substance but I'd love to see either Richards or Stoll in an Oilers uniform. While I wouldn't be crazy about moving Jeff Petry in the deal, since it's basically creating one hole by patching another, it could be a solution. Of course, teams are so averse to trading within their own division or trading talent for talent that it would never happen. I'm just saying I'd like to see it.

 

Jonathan Quick was as outstanding as a goalie can look giving up five goals in one game. If he isn't back-stopping the Kings they probably lose 10-5. What a talent!

 

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The favourite goalie "sleeper" of the summer, Alex Stalock has been placed on IR. Stalock hadn't really been doing much to steal starts from Antti Niemi anyhow so there isn't necessarily a fantasy impact here beyond what it does for Stalock owners.

 

Stalock has had more impressive peripherals than Niemi but that might simply come from a smaller sample size or from getting starts as a fresher goaltender. Either way, the Sharks have not been playing particularly well this season, which is more disconcerting whether you are a Niemi owner or a Stalock owner. After grading out as one of the top possession teams last season the Sharks have been a slightly negative possession team so far.

 

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It looks like Dan Boyle will make his return to the lineup tonight.

 

Boyle practiced Wednesday with no limitations. He was on the Rangers top power play unit with Derek Stepan, Derick Brassard, Rick Nash and Martin St. Louis. He’ll likely replace Michael Kostka in the lineup.

 

This is a saucy opportunity to get some value out of the veteran and then try to dump him before Ryan McDonagh returns. McDonagh is the big dog on the Rangers blueline but until he returns Boyle could really produce. Of course, we also said the same about Dan Girardi and that obviously didn't work out.

 

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It sounds like Sergei Bobrovsky could be ready to go on Friday in Philadelphia, which could help stop the bleeding for Columbus.

 

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NHL.com's Five Questions features former Penguins coach Dan Bylsma this week and it's a good read:

 

I’m a coach who likes to see the backup be a guy who you can count on to play games, who you can count on to win games, almost expect him to go in and win games. When you don’t play him you also show a lack of confidence in the guy, and that’s something I think you need to have. You need to have a guy who is going to go in there and thinks he’s going to win a game for a team. So I’ve never gone on streaks of 11 or 12 in a row with one guy. At times Marc-Andre probably wanted to play 11 in a row, but sometimes the schedule dictates it too. If they’re not in a situation through 11 games when they’ve played a back-to-back or a three-in-four, they may not have been in a situation where they needed to use their backup goalie. But at some point in time you’re going to go to the guy, you need to go to the guy, and you can tax your goalie with too much hockey at the beginning of the season and you’re not going to be able to get that back.

 

This response was in relation to a question about Cory Schneider having started every game for the Devils this season. I remain adamant that they are over-utilizing him so far and that it's having a negative impact on his play.

 

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A couple of cool short documentaries to share with you today. The first is from TSN about the Stastny brothers' defection from Czechoslovakia to come play for the Quebec Nordiques. I couldn't find an embeddable link so click here to check it out.

 

The other short is from the 30 for 30 series this one about former Bruins tough guy, John Wensink. It's nice to see an enforcer story that isn't a cautionary tale. Not that the doc necessary condones fighting but suffice it to say Wensink isn't suffering from his days in the NHL.

 

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
160.0 VASILY PODKOLZIN KASPERI KAPANEN LEON DRAISAITL
148.8 CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN VIKTOR ARVIDSSON
86.5 JEFF SKINNER DEREK RYAN COREY PERRY

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