The Contrarian – No Big Deal
Thomas Drance
2014-11-16
The Contrarian looks at Tyler Myers’ potential and trade value with a skeptical eye.
I came across a rumor article by Lyle Richardson on Spector's Hockey which dealt with defenseman Tyler Myers. It references a Hockey News article, “Buffalo's Tyler Myers still has a ton of potential and that's why teams are interested" by Ryan Kennedy.
Both have similar opinions. "He's a big blueliner with plenty of skill and at 23 has plenty of time to blossom into a true top-two defenseman" says Richardson which very much sums up what Kennedy thinks.
Which team doesn't dream of the potential that can come from acquiring a 6-foot-8 defenseman and that is why Myers is involved in many trade rumors? Our own Fantasy Hockey Top 10 columnist Tom Collins adds to the discussion, "He's had enough chances to right the ship in Buffalo. If he was traded, there would be a sharp interest in fantasy owners across the world."
The Sabres Observer on KuklasKorner by Dave Davis says that "Myers might be the biggest name you'll hear mentioned in rumors regarding defenseman because of his contract and the continuing debate about his potential upside. What kind of player will he be when he transforms into a grizzled veteran?"
You're probably starting to envision what Zdeno Chara did for the Boston Bruins. That's what other teams would be hoping for if they were fortunate to trade for Myers.
What Chara did in going from the New York Islanders to Ottawa and then to Boston was transform into a reliable leader. Myers does not show signs of that at the moment. Chara also spent two partial seasons developing in the AHL. Myers went from Junior to the NHL. Sometimes things have to percolate in order to get the best out of them.
Back to Richardson, "Put him on a deeper club and he'll shine. That's also why the Sabres are leery to part with him, and why they've set the asking price so high."
Is that true?
In Myer's rookie season where he earned 48 points, Buffalo was a playoff bound team. They won their division and Myers was averaging 23 minutes and 44 seconds of ice time a night.
In his sophomore year, he tallied 37 points with an average ice time of 22:27. His shot total improved by a quarter shot a game though. Buffalo was still a playoff team.
In his third year, as Buffalo started to slip out of playoff contention, his ice time was at 22:29, he continued to shoot at about 1.5 shots per game, yet his point totals dropped to 23. Yes, he did get injured that season but his point per game average dropped from 0.59 in his rookie year to 0.46 in his sophomore and then to 0.42 in that year.
Season | Games | Goals | Assists | Points | +/- | TOI | Shots | Pts/G | Shots/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014-15 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -9 | 24:46 | 31 | 0.11 | 1.722 |
2013-14 | 62 | 9 | 13 | 22 | -26 | 21:53 | 99 | 0.35 | 1.597 |
2012-13 | 39 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 21:18 | 48 | 0.21 | 1.231 |
2011-12 | 55 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 5 | 22:29 | 84 | 0.42 | 1.527 |
2010-11 | 80 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 0 | 22:27 | 122 | 0.46 | 1.525 |
2009-10 | 82 | 11 | 37 | 48 | 13 | 23:44 | 104 | 0.59 | 1.268 |
The slide continues all the way to this season.
The core of the team was very much the same for those three seasons. He played with Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, Jochen Hecht, Patrick Kaleta, Tyler Ennis Andrej Sekera and Nathan Gerbe in all of those three seasons. They added Brad Boyes and Jordan Leopold in year two and Ville Lenio, Cody Hodgson and Christian Ehrhoff in year three.
The most telling thing is that they lost defensemen Toni Lydman, Henrik Tallinder and Craig Rivet in that stretch of time. Indeed put him on a deeper club and he might do better than he's doing right now. He might even match what he did in his rookie season. If he is really that good and has all that potential, why would Buffalo trade him away only to turn around later to say, that they need a big defenseman who can score and log plenty of minutes?
If he is in fact on the trading block then it is because the Sabres feel that he won't reach his potential. That they are asking for such a high price is because they believe they can sell Myers' "potential" factor to another team.
Fantasy owners who still have Myers have to seize the moment when it strikes. Don't hang on to him if and when he is traded to another NHL team. Do what the Sabres are doing and up-sell his potential, make reference to Richardson's and the other writers comments.
However, don't take too long to negotiate or else you will be left with no big deal of your own.