November 22, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-11-22

Comeau and Spaling crack the top six, Strome is hot, what to make of Foligno and more…

It wasn't a shutout like Marc-Andre Fleury recorded earlier this week against the Habs but I'm calling last night's shootout win a positive step anyhow. Look, he had a bit of a meltdown in the first allowing three goals in 95 seconds of game action but I only blame him for the first of those.

Anyways, Fleury was left out there even after conceding a fourth goal early in the second period and he shut the door the rest of the way helping the Penguins complete the comeback even as they were outshot 14-7 in the final frame. I call that progress.

Nick Spaling and Blake Comeau, these are actually names to consider in fantasy hockey. I'm not kidding. They are both skating in the top-six for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Madness, I know but they each scored a goal last night and are taking advantage of their respective opportunities.

Spaling skated with Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist, who each had two points last night, while Comeau skated with Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby who were held off the board. I think we eventually see Beau Bennett and Steve Downie given shots in the top six as they are more skillful players but right now they are rolling on the third line with Brandon Sutter so the coach doesn't want to break up the chemistry.

I maintain that I like the fit of Comeau in the top six. He skates fast, works hard and knows to get the puck to the big boys. Can't argue with that. I need to see more from Spaling before he gets my endorsement. And don't go nuts with Comeau or anything. I just think he can get to 45 points in his current role, maybe score 20 goals. Though his current shooting percentage of 19.2% is double his career average.

Just perusing the future UFAs and there isn't a lot out there that I think the Penguins could snag for cheap but a couple of intriguing options did pop out for me.

Jiri Tlusty – This was the sexiest name out there that I think could actually be available. I know that new Hurricanes management appears to see the value in retaining established talent rather than dealing it off for draft picks that take forever to develop but if the Penguins made one of their top defensive prospects available then the Hurricanes would be fools not to consider a deal. Also, if Tlusty isn't willing to talk extension then they may be forced to sell him for pennies on the dollar.

The point is, we've seen what Tlusty can do with a couple of stars as linemates. That would only be amplified in Pittsburgh. Not that he's a perfect replacement for Pascal Dupuis but that player may not exist.

Michael Frolik – The Jets are going to hang onto Frolik so long as they are contending but they could definitely make a move if (when) they fall out of the playoff race. Frolik isn't overly interesting but so rarely are most deadline acquisitions. He does have three seasons of 40 points or more so there is some ability there but it seems that it mostly shines when granted a large role on a bad team. When Frolik skated for a contender in Chicago he did so in a marginal role and it showed with a lack of scoring. This could be a rare chance to skate for a contender with enough desperation to give him top-six minutes.

Drew Stafford – I mentioned him as a possibility for the Bruins earlier this year too though Seth Griffith seems to have grabbed that top line RW job for the time being. Stafford could instead be an option for Pittsburgh. He's big and has some skill, I suppose. I have to be honest, I don't really like Stafford that much but there certainly is a market for former 30-goal-scorers no matter how long ago that season was. If nothing else, it could be fun to see Crosby try to make a game out of intentionally bouncing passes off of Stafford in an effort to create offense.

I still think Bennett ends up filling one of the top-six spots. It's just fun to speculate.

The Islanders played it smart against the Penguins and stayed out of the penalty box. That isn't entirely true, they did accrue seven PIM last night but those came in situations with coincidental Penguins penalties so the desired effect was achieved, the Penguins were kept off the power play. Maybe that didn't matter as much as the big scoring explosion in the first period did but the Islanders clawed out a win in Pittsburgh with their backup starting. That's huge.

Ryan Strome went off for three points last night and has eight points in his last seven games. It's nice to see the production continuing even though he has been moved back onto the second power play unit. He is also centering a third line comprised of Josh Bailey and Anders Lee. I don't see how this hot streak continues given the minutes Strome is skating (just 13:48 last night) but it's still notable that he's pulled it off.

The Hartnell comparison seems more sensible since Foligno is riding the comet that is Johansen similar to how Hartnell caught on with the superstars on the Flyers but that comparison isn't necessarily accurate. That Flyer team was loaded when Hartnell finally broke out in 2008-09.

The Penner comparison isn't perfect either. He led the Oilers in scoring by more than 20 points that season. His breakout was all him and a mountain of flapjacks worth of puck luck.

Both Hartnell and Penner had 20-goal seasons before breaking out for real. Foligno hasn't reached 20 goals in a season yet but he's already halfway there. Doesn't seem like there's a perfect comparison. Maybe Foligno is just one of a kind! But if there's a lesson here it's that big-bodied net-front guys like Foligno don't typically score more than 60 points in a season, even when all the puck luck goes their way so make that your high side projection for Foligno going forward.

God bless Milan Lucic. Only he would engage in some extracurriculars at the end of overtime to earn himself (and his fantasy owners) a PIM-boosting game misconduct. He may be scoreless in four straight now but he finds a way to contribute. You can blame the injuries to David Krejci and many other Bruins for the slow start for Lucic.

Actually, looking at things, the Bruins have it about as bad as the Blue Jackets do on the injury front. Talk about a battle of the walking wounded.

Alexander Khokhlachev made his season debut last night but skated less than 10 minutes. He did score the shootout winner but I doubt that earns him significantly more ice time. I like Khokhlachev as a prospect but this isn't his time to contribute just yet.

Cory Schneider pulled off the perfect quarter season starting all of the Devils' first 20 games this season. He capped it off with a shutout of the Oilers, which is both impressive and unimpressive at the same time.

Schneider's numbers haven't been all that impressive this season and you can pick your excuse as to why. He's either been overworked, let down by the skaters in front of him, been unlucky or simply played poorly. It's probably some combination of the above. I just know we expect him to be better going forward. He's already got two shutouts in the last four games. It might be turning for him already.

You can give up one breakaway in a game and get away with it. Two is too many, or at least it was last night as Henrique opened the scoring by finishing his second breakaway opportunity of the match.

When he has played, Henrique has played well with 10 points in 14 games this season. That's while riding a 19.2% shooting percentage but it's not as high as you'd think. Henrique has always been a high percentage shooter, with a career average of 15.1%. He's like Tyler Bozak without the media spotlight or super linemates.

Henrique has done fairly well in the linemate department recently, centering Patrik Elias and Martin Havlat (who hasn't been as bad as you'd imagine.) It had previously been centering the Newfies, Ryane Clowe and Michael Ryder before the former went down with injury. If Henrique can stick with Elias (who is due some puck luck soon, I swear) then I'm optimistic about his chances of remaining productive. Otherwise, he probably reaches that 35-45 range that has modest value but isn't exciting.

Watching the Edmonton power play last night, dreadful as ever I couldn't help but think about how the Oilers managed excellent power plays during the Ralph Krueger era, both when he was an assistant under Renney and then as head coach in 2013. The Oilers power play clicked at an efficient 20% during those two years ranking as high as third in the league in 2011-12.

This year, the Oilers rank 26^th at 13.4%. They were only marginally better last season ranking 21^st at 17.0%. Unlike a lot of Oiler fans, I don't hate Dallas Eakins' coaching. But it sure feels like he could use a hand managing the X's and O's on the power play.

What's interesting is if you take a deeper dive into the stats. The Oilers ranked 29^th in both 2011-12 and 2013 in shot attempts per 60 minutes with the man advantage. There have been a number of studies demonstrating why shot attempts are the better measure of power play efficacy because we know that shooting percentages often fluctuate widely.

Obviously it hasn't helped the Oilers become a better team but under Eakins they have improved widely in terms of generating shot attempts on the power play. Last season showed only marginal improvement ranking 24^th in shot attempts/60 but this season they are all the way up to eighth even while their efficiency lingers near the bottom.

So is this power play a sleeping giant? If you watched the Oilers' four-minute power play in the third period where they managed just two SOG you'd certainly have to argue for no. They went 0/4 against the worst penalty-killing team in the league, well second worst after last night. And really, if you've been watching all season then you'd have a tough time arguing that this power play is good and that we just don't know it yet but I think we can be too results based in our opinions. Even though I don't think it looks good I'm open to the possibility that the Oilers are doing things "the right way" and simply aren't seeing results yet.

That doesn't do us much good as fantasy owners though. It's not enough to be generating shot attempts at a high rate. We need closer's, which reminds me of one of my favourite movie scenes (warning NSFW language).

The dream appears to be dead, Daniel Alfredsson is reportedly on his way to retirement. I just dumped him in the Experts League. A sad day for sure.

Check out Dobber's latest for Puck Daddy.

May as well check out the latest from our friend at The Hockey Writers, Anatolyi Metter as he looks at the top defensemen under 25% owned.

Some tasty nuggets in Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts:

15. It seems like James Neal is shooting more than ever, but the numbers don't back up that assertion. His 82-game pace is 289 shots for this year, better than 2012-13 (279), but lower than 2011-12 (337) and last season (331). What he does say is the mentality is different. "When you're playing with Crosby or (Evgeni) Malkin, it's hard not to be looking for them. Now, I'm not thinking that way."

If you haven't checked it yet I broke down the Dillon-Demers trade yesterday.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.