The Contrarian looks at sustainable success and close-game records.
In an article written by Ian Cooper, for the Toronto Star, called "Analytics poke hole in success of Patrick Roy, Avs" he details an argument that shows us that last year's Avalanche were destined to fail this year.
He states, "Because as is becoming increasingly clear, Roy had a very lucky season" and he believes that it was due to all those one goals games.
Continuing, "The problem is one-goal games are pretty much coin tosses. Last year's elite teams such as Chicago (.425 win percentage in one goal games), Boston (.485) and Los Angeles (.488) all earned the lion's share of their points by drubbing their opponents. Teams that expect to win one-goal games consistently usually find their luck turns."
Adding more to the argument, "There is a myth in some hockey circles that teams with 'grit and determination' can 'tough out hard games' and 'pull out a win'.
Let us look at the data from the previous three seasons. The links to the full data including the current season at NHL.com are 2014-15, 2013-14, 2012-13 and 2011-12.
Stanley Cup winners are highlighted in yellow, finalists are in red, conference finalists are in blue and quarter-finalists are in green.
It sure looks like he's got a point about one-goal games being tossups. Look at all those finalists and where they ranked in one-goal game win percentage. It is all over the map.
If you clicked on the link for the current season you'll see that Colorado has a winning percentage of .308 in one-goal games as compared to last year's .700 rate. So his point has some validity.
Related Posts
UPCOMING GAMES
| Apr 11 - 19:04 |
 N.J
| vs |
 PIT | |
| Apr 11 - 19:04 |
 OTT
| vs |
 MTL | |
| Apr 11 - 19:04 |
 T.B
| vs |
 DET | |
| Apr 11 - 21:04 |
 EDM
| vs |
 S.J | |
| Apr 11 - 22:04 |
 CGY
| vs |
 MIN
| |
Starting Goalies
Top Skater Views
WSH
TORTop Goalie Profile Views
DAL
UTA
NYI
ANA
LINE COMBOS
| Frequency |
 BOS Players
| |
|---|---|---|
| 22.9 | DAVID PASTRNAK ELIAS LINDHOLM MORGAN GEEKIE | |
| 21.2 | PAVEL ZACHA CASEY MITTELSTADT FABIAN LYSELL | |
| 20.5 | FRASER MINTEN MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV RILEY DURAN | |
DobberHockey Podcasts
Short(?) Shifts – Savouring the Season
Lewis and Elizabeth are back for one more skate around the rink of our fantasy hockey season, with info for the final fantasy week and long-view reflections on the year that was.
Keeping Karlsson: Gr8 V16es
Elan and Brian celebrate two legends with massive accomplishments today: Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s new goal scoring record holder, and Ian F, the newly crowned KKUPFL Ultimate Champion and undisputed best fantasy hockey manager in the world. You decide which one matters more.
Fantasy Hockey Life: Tidy Commissioner Roundtable
Our TIDY commish team joins the show for a roundtable to look back on a thrilling season. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email fantasyhockeylife@gmail.com and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife for rankings, bonus podcasts, in-depth prospect reports with […]
Keeping Karlsson: Matchup Maximizer Week 25
Elan looks at the schedule for the upcoming week of NHL action and recommends some players with good schedules that you should consider streaming in to win your head to head matchups.
Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Playoff Injury Rundown
Shams is here with special guest Derrick to get you set up for the final stretch run of your fantasy playoffs. They go through the near term schedule covering the teams you should look at for streams and which ones you should consider dropping players from. After that, they cover a long list of injuries […]