November 29, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-11-29
McDonagh returns, Stepan on fire, Ennis heating up, the Canucks blueline scoring woes and more…
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Once again, remember to get those lineups set early. The Rangers and Flyers are running it back with another matinee game at 1:00 pm Eastern.
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Ryan McDonagh returned for the Rangers yesterday, as promised. Alain Vigneault hardly eased him in skating McDonagh 22:12 with 6:16 shorthanded. I guess he didn't have a choice considering the undisciplined play of the Rangers. They had to kill off six Flyer power plays, no easy task, but accomplished that just fine.
McDonagh was only used on the second power play unit but did manage a short-handed assist. Instead, the Rangers continued on with Dan Boyle on the top unit and he scored a power-play goal for the second straight game. He picked a good time to turn it on with McDonagh returning.
I love McDonagh but he isn't so good offensively that it would be impossible for Boyle to hold him off if he keeps producing. But, as I mentioned yesterday, I think that Father Time has caught up to Boyle and that he no longer has the goods to hold McDonagh off. Time will tell but I'm betting on McDonagh.
Derek Stepan is simply sizzling. He has been held off the board in just two games since returning earlier this month. After a three-assist night he now has 11 points in 10 games.
The trick for Stepan is putting together a full 82-game season. He can't do that after missing the first month but could he put together a full 71 games after missing the first 11? We know that Stepan can produce in short stints, he scored over a point per game back in the lockout shortened 2013 season. I think that he has the talent, particularly in the weaker Eastern Conference. And his usage is where it needs to be skating on the top line with Chris Kreider and either Mats Zuccarello or more recently Martin St. Louis, as well as on the top power play unit.
The trick for Stepan staying above a point per game will be sustaining his above-average on-ice shooting percentage of 9.62%. That's right around where elite players perform over a full season. I think he's capable but it wouldn't surprise me if he saw a little regression.
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He only landed one SOG yesterday but Claude Giroux has been shooting way more this season.
He’s on pace for 379 shots, which would be nearly 140 shots more than his career best of 242 shots in 2011-12. And at 4.62 shots on goal per game, he’s averaging nearly 1.50 shots per game more than his best of 3.14 in 2011-12.
One thing working for Giroux is how great of a playmaker Jakub Voracek is. What's surprising is that Voracek is shooting more than ever as well. Last season he landed a career high 235 SOG but he's on pace for 273.
Is this added shooting the reason for these two busting out or is the extra shooting happening because they've simply hit another level. I'd argue that it's the latter. These two are just scorching together. They are a problem on every shift.
I'd be treating Voracek like a superstar in trades. I would try to sell high but I'd be asking for guys like Perry, Malkin, Ovechkin or Kane. Otherwise, I'd just keep him.
Keep in mind Giroux's increased SOG for pools that score it. You aren't likely going to get him in a deal right now but if you have Giroux that's added reason to hang onto him.
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The Blackhawks really stuck it to the Ducks yesterday in Anaheim but the Blackhawks have been doing that to everyone lately. Also, the Ducks have been struggling with injuries on the backend. Francois Beauchemin is out once again, this time with a broken finger. He'll miss a month and a half. They are also without Clayton Stoner who is the latest mumps victim. That's why the Ducks went out and traded for Eric Brewer not long after moving a big defenseman in Bryan Allen.
Don't miss the hidden meaning in this deal. Victor Hedman has been upgraded to questionable for today's game. Looks like he'll be back soon.
Back to the Ducks. They were getting dominated more than fairly but a fairly questionable boarding call on Kyle Palmieri cost them basically the first five minutes of the third period, a huge blow for a team looking to mount a comeback.
Palmieri has been productive since returning to the lineup. He has been skating with Ryan Kesler on the second line (much to the chagrin of Jakob Silfverberg owners) and has three goals in six games. He also has 19 PIM thanks to the 15 yesterday's misconduct afforded him. Palmieri has never been a high-PIM guy at the NHL level though so maybe use this recent spike to try and sell him on the high side before the market correction comes.
Did I mention that Palmieri is currently shooting 23.1%? Again, try to sell him before the market correction hits.
I wouldn't expect Palmieri to carry much value in one-year leagues but keepers is where I'd try selling. Think of it this way, you could hang onto Palmieri and hopes that he is one of the eight different prospects riding the wheel of fortune vying for a spot on the top line with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf or you could cash out while the going is good and try to get an established player.
Whatever you do, don't blame Freddie Andersen for yesterday's loss. Check out this beauty of a save and an equally awesome reaction from Marian Hossa:
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Letdown game for the Islanders yesterday in the second half of their home-and-home with the Capitals, which ends their five-game winning streak. They had the backup, Chad Johnson in though so Jaroslav Halak will have a shot at extending his personal eight-game winning streak against the Devils today.
Johnny Boychuk missed the game with soreness yesterday. He's officially day-to-day with an upper-body injury. He could be back as soon as today.
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Byfuglien has also been skating on a line with Evander Kane and Mark Scheifele of late, which is much better than his previous third-line company. The buy low window is certainly open though Byfuglien owners have still enjoyed him for his PIM and SOG production so he won't come bargain-bin cheap.
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David Pastrnak surely turned some heads yesterday getting his chance on the top line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. He was held scoreless in 17:02 with 3:44 on the power play but he landed seven SOG, which gets my attention.
I was already hot for Pastrnak after his impressive showing in training camp and his excellent production at the AHL level. If not this year, Pastrnak is going to be a fantasy asset sometime soon. Reilly Smith owners beware!
With the Bergeron line held scoreless it was instead the Milan Lucic–Carl Soderberg–Loui Eriksson combination that produced both goals. Those three continue to impress together.
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Tyler Ennis has 12 points in his last 13 games. I never thought he'd pull it off but the little bastard has made the Sabres fantasy relevant. He's even got ol' dead eyes, Matt Moulson going with nine points in his last nine games. Now I guess I have to watch a Sabre game sometime soon here to see what this is all about.
Yeah, you've got my attention.
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As mentioned, I didn't watch the game but the Canadiens were supposed to be trotting out some new power play setup. Did they? Looking at the minutes breakdown it sure doesn't seem like they changed anything in terms of personnel. They did get their lone goal on the power play with PA Parenteau finding the back of the net. I'm pleased to see that he continues to get power play time.
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Does anyone get less out of their defensemen than the Vancouver Canucks? Only four teams don't have at least one defenseman in double-digits: the Canucks, Rangers, Jets and Sabres.
The Sabres are actively tanking. I'm not sure they have even hit double-digits in scoring as a team. The Jets are second last in league scoring to the Sabres but have Tobias Enstrom, Zach Bogosian and Jacob Trouba at nine, eight and seven points respectively, while their most prolific defenseman, Dustin Byfuglien is playing forward. The Rangers have been absent Dan Boyle and Ryan McDonagh for most of the season. What's Vancouver's excuse? I mean, even Florida has Aaron Ekblad in double figures.
To highlight that lack of defense scoring even further, consider that only three teams have scored more goals than the Canucks this season. Will this futility last? Will the Canucks really fail to get a defenseman to 40 points despite being a top offensive team?
To answer that, I'd first ask if they will continue to be a top offensive team, which they certainly should. They've got elite talent up front and are scoring at middle-of-the-pack rates at both even strength and on the power play, which shows they haven't been propped up by puck luck. Injuries could certainly derail them as they did last season but this isn't a team where injuries are a foregone conclusion.
The top candidate to reach 40 is surely Alexander Edler. He is their leading defenseman scorer with eight so far this season and has cleared 40 twice in his career already. Edler is also tops among Canuck defensemen in ice-time frequently drawing the lone defenseman spot on the top power play unit. He was projected to get at least 40 points in a couple of fantasy guides but notably not our own where Dobber had him for just 34.
I still think he can get there, even with this slow start. For one, the Canucks are shooting slightly below average with Edler on the ice at even strength at just 7.04%. They are doing well on the power play with Edler out there but Edler still has just three power-play points this season, all goals. I get that Edler's role on the power play isn't much with Radim Vrbata and the Sedins running things down low but I'd figure he'd accrue an assist or two just through sheer osmosis. Not so. At least, not yet.
Meanwhile, the Canucks continue to get above-board production from their second line. Nick Bonino had slowed down a bit until he dropped three assists on the Blue Jackets last night. He's now on pace for 68 points, which is too much. I think he'll be lucky to get to 60 given his usage is limited to the second power play unit.
I'd change my tune if the Canucks found a spot for Bonino on the top power play unit but so far they've avoided going that route. At first Linden Vey had held down the spot but a recent injury drove the Canucks to give Zack Kassian a spin. Kassian is out with a broken finger but the team didn't go back to Vey who has returned. Instead they have given Jannik Hansen some run after a recent hot streak. Hansen has since cooled off.
All of those options seem underwhelming to me so Bonino could get a chance on the top unit yet but I think the Canucks like the continuity of keeping the second line together for the second power play unit even if it isn't optimal for fantasy owners. So when Bonino's on-ice shooting percentage of 10.18% regresses, he probably finishes closer to 55 points.
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Cory Schneider talks about the difficulties taking on a heavier load as full-time starter for the Devils this season:
“You don’t have the time to really work on your game when you are playing all the time,” Schneider told NHL.com. “It’s one more thing I am learning how to manage as we go is, if I can feel my technique breaking down, pucks are going through you, or you are getting a little leaky, you have to fix it on the fly. You may not have a practice session to sit down and go over every detail and work on your mechanics.”
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Awesome piece from TSN's Scott Cullen discussing how changes in ice time show how players' roles have evolved for better or worse.
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Oilers fans, what's worse, getting dumped 7-1 at home by the Blackhawks or having your heart ripped out in overtime on back-to-back nights? Or have the last nine years left you dead inside?
My goodness Tank is good though: