Nick Foligno, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets, +10.9 Points

Average Projection: 74 16 22 38

Current Totals: 20 10 11 21

With all the injuries in Columbus, someone had to get some extra scoring opportunities. Who would have guessed it would be Nick Foligno, given his seven-season career high of 47 points?

Acquired from Ottawa for Marc Methot, Foligno has historically been a gritty scoring line winger, but not one who was particularly strong possession-wise or in his own end. That all changed when the 27-year-old pending UFA began playing with Ryan Johansen a year or two ago, which has given him a scoring boost not unlike the one Voracek received from Giroux.

Foligno is currently averaging 2.3 shots per game with Johansen, up from a single-season career high of 1.9, and he’s finding twine on 18.2% of those shots, up from a previous career average of 10.4%. His near-$3.1 million cap hit may have seemed high in 2012, but it could go higher this summer, even if he does inevitably cool down.

Brock Nelson, C, New York Islanders, +10.5 Points

Average Projection: 72 15 16 31

Current Totals: 22 10 10 20

When someone on the Islanders starts lighting it up, normally one would expect that John Tavares was responsible, but no. Tavares has been in on only two of Brock Nelson‘s even-strength points, and five more on the power play.

Nelson has actually been playing with fellow sophomore Ryan Strome, who didn’t miss this list by much himself. Strome is no Tavares, but he’s certainly a huge upgrade from Nelson playing on Cal Clutterbuck‘s checking line last year.

What can you say about the 23-year-old Nelson? He is big, but highly disciplined. He’s ok defensively, but weak in the faceoff circle. He is a shootout wizard, going three for four last year, and was a strong offensive weapon at both even strength and on the power play in both the WCHA and the AHL.

Nelson’s improved scoring is the perfect storm of several factors, including his own natural development, great success on the power play (a league-leading six power-play goals), an extra three minutes of ice time per game, improved line mates, and solid shooting percentages (17.2% himself, and  11.7% of the team when he’s on the ice). Even once some of those factors start to cool off, he’s bound to cash in this summer, when his entry-level contract expires.

T.J. Brodie, RD, Calgary Flames, +10.3 Points

Average Projection: 77 5 26 31

Current Totals: 24 5 15 20

The big surprise in Calgary is the team itself, and not so much T.J. Brodie personally. Other than perhaps the Nashville Predators, no team has defied expectations in practically every sense.

No defensemen could match the huge surge in opportunity Brodie enjoyed last season, being vaulted from a third pairing with Cory Sarich (where he absolutely shined) to the top pairing – and one of the most heavily leaned-upon top pairings at that. And he continued to shine!

Bob Hartley involves his defensemen in the offense, unlike the team’s previous coaches, and it shows. Obviously the team won’t continue to score on almost 14% of its shots when Brodie is on the ice, nor will he himself score on 12% of his own, but playing under Hartley and alongside Giordano should keep his scoring churning at a rate higher than his 31-point projection.

The highly underrated Giordano himself just barely missed this list, incidentally. Johnny Boychuk of the Islanders and Anaheim’s Sami Vatanen were the only defensemen to be found not too far behind.

Closing Thoughts

There are always a few players who get off to really hot starts. Normally they can be explained not so much by the player’s own natural development, but by having gifted linemates, favourable playing conditions, more ice time (especially on the power play), and  really good shooting percentages. Most of those are the case with this year’s starts of the first quarter, but at least a couple of these young starts should manage to keep the flame burning all year.