The Contrarian – Thanksgiving Deals in Philadelphia

Thomas Drance

2014-11-30

Ron Hextall

Does Flyers GM Ron Hextall have a thanksgiving blockbuster in him?

"The Flyers surely are testing general manager Ron Hextall's patience the way they've been playing", says writer Randy Miller of NJ.com in his November 28^th, 2014 article called "3 Flyer blockbuster trades to save the season, including Matt Read to Devils for Adam Larsson".

Miller understands that trading players like Vincent Lecavalier or R.J. Umberger are unlikely but he comes up with three deals he thinks are possible if Hextall starts to think outside-of-the-box.

The first is Matt Read for Adam Larsson.

The premise he gives is that the Devils have been "jerking around" Adam Larsson and they might not see a long term future with him. In addition they are a team that could use a solid two-way winger like Read even though he has only two goals this season.

Miller even references his fellow NJ.com columnist Rich Chere's article on Larsson to accentuate that he is no longer playing an offensive minded game but instead has had to adapt to a two-way role in order to stay in the lineup.

However, in Chere's piece it didn't sound like Larsson was anxious to leave the Devils and is doing the best he can with the role he is being asked to play. He is in his last season of his contract but is a restricted free agent.

To the Devils' credit it looks like they are grooming Larsson for a long term role with the team. Much like Detroit would call up/sit Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist. These players are better for it.

With regards to Read, just because he's had two season of 20+ gaols (highest season was 47 points in 2011-12) doesn't mean that the Devils would necessarily want him, especially at a cap cost of $3.6 million per year for the remaining four years of his contract.

The third trade offered is Braydon Coburn for a pick from Los Angeles.

The main reason why the offer is suggested is to acquire more cap space for the Flyers. The main reason why they can make such a deal with the Kings is that Hextall once worked for now King's GM Dean Lombardi. Call this a buddy deal, just like those in fantasy hockey. It happens in the NHL too but if it were so easy it would have been done already.

The Kings are not the only other team to be looking for defensive help though. So not only is it odd that New Jersey would give up Larsson but why wouldn't both teams get something more for their defensemen since there is a demand throughout the league.

At this point if both of those deals were done the Flyers would have cleared just over seven million dollars of cap space.

The final trade offer by Miller is that of Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn and prospect Robert Hagg for David Perron and Justin Schultz from Edmonton.

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Miller's justification is "[Adding] two pieces like Perron and Schultz would be worth it. Perron would be a great fit on the top line by providing grit and ability to finish, while Schultz would improve an already very dangerous Flyers power play."

Are all these trades worth it? Especially if they are giving up Brayden Schenn.

Let's look at the Flyers' scoring numbers this season. In 21 games, the Flyers have scored 59 goals. Of those a little more than half of them, 30, have been score by their top four forwards, Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn. The next best player is Michael Raffl with six.

Looking deeper into the Flyers record, they netted 38 goals while giving up 30 at home in 11 games of which they won six. They also scored 13 of those goals on the power play while only allowing six power play goals at home.

Now it is a different story when they are on the road. They scored 21 goals and allowed 33 in 10 road games of which they only won two. The "dangerous Flyers power play" only earned four goals while away from home and their penalty killing unit gave up 13.

Their average goals for per game are 2.81 which puts them in 10^th amongst all NHL teams. It doesn't hurt when you have Voracek and Grioux who are ranked the second and sixth best players by points. Some other teams would be envious except they are doing better with less.

Their average goals against per game are 3.00 which ranks them 24^thin the league. Now it is too simple to say that they have to work on their defense or that they need a goalie,

Looks to me like the have the tools but their system can be picked apart by the opposition with some good line matching and their power play is only potent in front of their own fans.

Now looking specifically at the Flyer players involved in these hypothetical deals all but Brayden Schenn are minus players.

Coburn is a minus 1, Read is a minus four, Luke Schenn is a minus 8. Hagg is excluded because he is in the minors. Nothing like trading away players that don't appear to be helping the team's cause.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12	N.J	vs	NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12	TOR	vs	WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12	DET	vs	STL
Dec 23 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12	BOS	vs	WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12	FLA	vs	T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12	PIT	vs	PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12	NYI	vs	BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12	NSH	vs	CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12	MIN	vs	CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12	UTA	vs	DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12	VAN	vs	S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12	VGK	vs	ANA