December 01 2014

Dobber

2014-12-01

My four biggest shockers this year; Stalock waiting to pounce; Players ready to decline and more …

***

The biggest shockers of the year for me so far:

1. Filip Forsberg – Here is a great young prospect who I figured would be a 60-point player with 80-point upside with Washington. But then he was traded to Nashville and I pretty much chopped 10 points off of each of those numbers. And now this. And not only is he exceeding these expectations, but he’s exceeding them as a rookie. He’s not messing around. It’s easy to expect him to slow down in terms of production – in fact, that’s the smart money. His PDO is 1102, which is sky-high and carried by a 13.55 On-Ice SH%. But 60 or 65 is quite reasonable and that already puts him as high as I thought he’d get with this team.

2. Nashville Predators – The best team in the league? We thought Barry Trotz would do wonders with Washington. Between his disciplined coaching style and the highly-talented but undisciplined team would match up beautifully. We’re still waiting for that. But a team lacking in offensive talent and trained for over a decade to play strong defensively like the Predators, suddenly getting an offensive coach? Well that can’t work, right? Uh, apparently it can.

On a side note – would Forsberg even be a regular if Trotz was still coaching there? Or would he be up and down from the minors and seeing minimal ice time with the big club?

3. Mark Giordano – Yeah right. He’ll get 90 points this year. I’ll tell you though, he’s selling me on 65. Starting to. Wouldn’t bet on it yet, but my mind is open to the possibility. I remember when Duncan Keith first got to that level, I didn’t think he had it in him either.

4. Dallas Stars – I can’t believe a Lindy Ruff-coached team with this much talent can be doing so poorly. A playoff team last year (barely) suddenly adds a star to their second line, plus a star rookie defenseman, and they’re…worse? Not buying it. Let’s chalk this one up to chemistry and assume they’ll start to gel in a dozen games or so. That being said – a dozen games from now may be too late to get back into the playoffs.

Not on the list:

Nick Foligno, because his 22 points in 22 games came mostly via all the injuries to the team. He was thrust into a scoring role and now that’s over. He has four points in his last seven games as the Jackets return to health and he’ll regr- uh, get back to a more realistic 50-point level. His hot start doesn’t really shock me. He also leads the team in On-Ice SH%.

RICKNASH

NYR

13.07

VINCENTTROCHECK

FLA

12.94

PATRICHORNQVIST

PIT

12.76

TYLERTOFFOLI

L.A

12.50

RYANCARTER

MIN

12.12

What this means is that the players on the ice at even strength with these guys are shooting at a rate that is unsustainable. Chances are the production will regr- uh, dip. Now, that being said, there need to be exceptions for the exceptional players. For example, playing with Sidney Crosby is going to naturally boost this number. So I’ll give Hornqvist a small pass. He’ll regr- uh, slow down but not by as much as the numbers indicate. I’d also give the Benn/Seguin duo a small pass. They’ll regr- uh, their production won’t be as strong but they’ll still do very well for the simple fact that they’re awesome. Ditto for Getzlaf/Perry. Instead of current paces of over 100 points, I’d instead target something closer to 90

But look at the rest of the list and know that if you own them you should be shopping them.

Here is some information on how the Player Profile pages on DobberHockey will look like, and what you can do to help (if you feel so inclined!).

Alex Stalock is back and ready to go and his timing is impeccable. Antti Niemi has just two wins in his last nine games, with the last win coming Saturday in which he still allowed four goals. Niemi’s save percentage over the last 82 games that he’s played is 0.913. In Stalock’s NHL career he’s played 32 games and sports a 0.930 SV%.

Four games ago Niklas Kronwall had 12 points in 20 games but was in a dreadful slump that had poolies actually considering dumping him. But he has four points in his last four games and is back on track. Never give up on a guy like Kronwall – he’s money in the bank for 45 to 55 points and he’s been so reliable in the health department these past few years.

Wow – Z with the pass. The Wings had Miller all over the place here:

Jakub Kindl has six points in his last eight games. He’s teased us like this once before, and we know he has ability at the AHL level. At 27 it’s doubtful this is anything beyond a temporary blip.

Danny DeKeyser also has six points in his last eight games. Pairings, last three games (via Frozen Pool):

#1	33%	ERICSSON,JONATHAN – KRONVALL,NIKLAS
#2	28.8%	DEKEYSER,DANNY – QUINCEY,KYLE
#3	25.7%	KINDL,JAKUB – OUELLET,XAVIER

Tomas Jurco has seven points in his last seven games and yet still sees limited ice time. That tells me two things – one, that he’s going to be a great player. I love guys who produce with minimal opportunity, they have the best odds of success. And two, this production won’t continue for much longer. You can’t be a point-per-game player when you play 10 minutes a game.

From a fantasy standpoint, Linden Vey has been arguably one of the most disappointing rookies. So Sunday’s three-point game sure helps. And it’s another example of how it’s early in the season and one game is still single-handedly correcting stats. His pace just went from 35 points to 45 in one game.

Tyler Ennis with a real beauty: