Stand/Buy

Kane

RW

25

25

19:57

3:51

84

Stand

Kruger

C

25

7

13:26

0:03

58

Waive

Morin

LW

15

0

7:44

0:05

28

Gamble

Richards

C

25

17

13:57

2:21

72

Sell-High

Saad

LW

25

16

16:34

2:25

60

Stand

Sharp

LW

13

9

18:30

4:05

56

Stand/Buy

Shaw

C

22

9

15:59

3:36

39

Stand

Smith

RW

25

2

14:27

0:15

36

Waive

Toews

C

25

20

20:04

3:52

68

Stand

Versteeg

RW

21

21

15:33

1:57

54

Sell-High

 

Chicago is a team in a flux. As Patrick Sharp nears his return the hockey world wonders will they go to back to the future with the lines that started the season or will they maintain the status quo. The argument for the status quo is that Kane/Versteeg/Richards are on one of the hottest lines in the NHL. Those numbers, for Versteeg and Richards are built upon ES on-ice shooting percentages of 12.21% and 11.98% respectively. Richards and Versteeg are also both scoring on more than 10% of their shots at even strength. These numbers are not sustainable for either player and any drop off could see the very able Andrew Shaw or Patrick Sharp steal a spot alongside Kane. There is precedence for this as Richards and Versteeg are both behind Toews, Kane, Sharp, Shaw, Saad and Hossa in the line for power play time. The members of the other big Chicago line, Toews/Hossa/Saad, have all produced well with very sustainable numbers. Andrew Shaw's numbers this season would be an abject disaster if he were not receiving a ton of power play time. The difference for this team is that when Patrick Sharp was healthy he had Saad's spot alongside Toews and Hossa while Saad and Shaw played with Kane. As Saad, Shaw and Sharp can all be relied upon more in a defensive role two of the three may find themselves on the outside. Jeremy Morin is interesting as a player who generates close to 2 shots per game while playing a paltry eight minutes per game. Rumours have him trying to force his way out of Chicago to play him or trade him. If these rumours come to fruition Morin becomes a good gamble.

 

Colorado

 

	Position	Games	Points	Time on Ice (TOI)	Power Play TOI	Shots on Goal (SOG)	Status
Briere	C	18	7	13:33	1:19	35	Waive
Cliché	RW	23	3	10:25	0:03	19	Waive
Duchene	C	25	17	19:16	2:40	77	Stand
Everberg	RW	13	4	10:49	0:05	16	Waive
Iginla	RW	25	15	17:37	2:40	51	Buy
Landeskog	RW	25	14	18:00	2:33	83	Buy
Mackinnon	C	25	18	16:47	2:33	77	Buy
McGinn	LW	19	6	14:46	1:55	36	Stand
McLeod	LW	25	4	9:30	0:04	18	Waive
Mitchell	C	17	6	13:15	0:18	20	Waive
O'Reilly	C	25	13	19:21	2:36	66	Stand
Talbot	C	25	6	13:06	0:08	31	Waive
Tanguay	LW	23	16	17:38	2:30	39	Sell

 

In a weird quirk because of how bad they are at the puck possession game the Avs have a preponderance of 'shutdown' players because they play so much of the game in their own end. That will have a negative effect on the offensive numbers for many of their players. For example Nathan Mackinnon and Gabe Landeskog are both putting up decent numbers this year with horrible peripheral numbers. Both have ES on-ice shooting percentages around 6.25% while Mackinnon has an ES shooting percentage of 3.57%. Expect both of these two to receive a bump to their current rates of production as those numbers regress. Jarome Iginla as their most common even strength linemate should get a contact high as well. Even with the rising tide until the Avs find some way to turn the possession tide the numbers may be underwhelming.

 

One player set up for quite the fall is Alex Tanguay with an ES shooting percentage over 30% thus far with 8 goals on 25 shots. Tanguay has a career shooting percentage of 15% so expect a higher than average shooting percentage but his current pace is wholly unsustainable and partially responsible for his ES on-ice shooting percentage of 11.72%. Jamie McGinn throws the lines a little out of whack when he is healthy as Colorado has seven useful offensive players and Briere's rotting corpse, which is really going to help in the playoffs in which they will not be playing. McGinn should remain fantasy relevant as the one constant is that he sees time consistent time with Iginla. O'Reilly and Duchene bounce a round a bit but both should be fine as long as they are seeing time Tanguay or McGinn as opposed to Briere. Duchene's peripherals are not quite as high as O'Reilly's are low. This will even out for both largely in the form of O'Reilly's rate of production rising to meet his shot rate of 2.5 per game

 

Dallas

 

	Position	Games	Points	Time on Ice (TOI)	Power Play TOI	Shots on Goal (SOG)	Status
Benn	LW	25	23	19:35	3:14	85	Stand
Cole	LW	24	9	13:13	1:23	43	Sell
Eakin	C	22	10	17:06	1:26	51	Buy
Eaves	RW	19	8	11:09	0:30	26	Sell
Fiddler	LW	25	7	12:54	0:09	32	Waive
Garbutt	C	20	9	13:39	0:07	44	Stand
Hemsky	RW	24	7	14:04	2:07	46	Gamble
Horcoff	C	25	9	12:12	1:20	32	Sell
Moen	LW	18	0	8:29	0:00	13	Waive
Roussel	LW	25	12	15:37	1:21	42	Stand
Sceviour	C	20	3	12:53	1:06	30	Waive
Seguin	C	25	31	19:50	3:30	107	Stand
Spezza	C	25	20	17:40	3:26	58	Sell-High

 

Dallas has been the epitome of a one-line team for much of the season as Seguin, Benn and Spezza carried a huge portion of the offensive load. Tyler Seguin is scoring on 20% of his shots, a pace that would only be sustainable against Andre Racicot or Anders Lindback. As it is Alex Tanguay and Steve Stamkos are the only active NHLers with career shooting percentages over 15%. As Seguin Is currently generating an extra shot per game over last season there is cushion in place for the fall that regression will bring.  Seguin will remain among top the scorers in the league so a sell-high is warranted but there are maybe two or three players that would warrant a target at the moment. Jamie Benn, Seguin's partner in crime, is riding a point per game pace along with Seguin and brings penalties and hits to bear for more inclusive leagues.

 

Cody Eakin has recently been given Spezza's spot on the top line and has produced seven points in nine games as a result. As Eakin does not receive power play time temper your expectations but as long as he is on the top line he is in for a nice production boost. With Spezza off the top line he has been reunited with Ales Hemsky and to no one's surprise Hemsky has six of his seven points on the season since the reunion with Spezza. While Spezza has not been as productive since the reunion, playing with Hemsky will make for a softer landing but he will not reach the same lofty heights he was at earlier in the season. Roussel and Garbutt make for great plays in leagues with penalties and hits but they also produce points without relying on high ES on-ice shooting percentages. Of the two Roussel is the better option as he sees over a minute of power play time. Nichushkin does not appear in the table because the timeline for his return is a very late season return, with Dallas looking to be well off the playoff pace there is no need for Dallas to rush him back to the lineup.

 

Edmonton

 

	Position	Games	Points	Time on Ice (TOI)	Power Play TOI	Shots on Goal (SOG)	Status
Arcobello	RW	26	9	15:48	1:03	43	Sell
Draisatl	C	26	6	12:44	2:16	36	Sell
Eberle	C	25	16	19:18	2:49	66	Stand/Buy
Gordon	C	26	7	13:30	0:41	33	Waive
Hall	LW	20	17	19:21	2:44	63	Stand/Buy
Hendricks	C	23	5	12:36	0:09	33	Waive
Joensuu	LW	20	4	10:37	0:12	18	Waive
Nugent-Hopkins	C	24	17	21:30	2:53	57	Stand/Buy
Perron	LW	26	13	16:44	2:40	56	Buy
Pouliot	LW	20	8	15:42	2:22	28	Stand
Purcell	RW	26	11	15:08	2:23	40	Buy
Yakupov	RW	26	7	14:36	2:14	55	Gamble

 

As bad as Edmonton is at playing defense they are not much better at producing on the power play. This is somewhat surprising for a team with a ton of offensive talent but these Oilers have shown a knack for learning that would make any learning curve as steep as Mount Everest. The other negative factor for the production of Edmonton's forwards is they have a severe lack of centers as Draisatl does not look ready for the NHL and Arcobello is a borderline NHLer. It is a shame because the Oilers have a enough potentially productive wingers to fill three lines. There is no Oiler forward with an on-ice shooting percentage over 10% and only Eberle, Hall and Nugent-Hopkins (RNH) are over 9%. Basically the only forwards on the Oilers with decent rates of production are the three on the line featuring the Oilers' only legitimate NHL center.

 

The positives for this team are Taylor Hall and RNH. Hall was already an elite winger and RNH is on the verge of becoming an elite center. Both Players would be scoring at a much higher level if this power play could even meet last years 27^th place 17%. The rumours out of Edmonton are of a Jordan Eberle trade, a development that would help his numbers significantly. Even a trade to play on Boston's top line would be a boost over his current 50 point pace. The Oilers have eight forwards who play between two and three minutes per game on the power play, making for a very even distribution of power play time. This also means that there are a lot of forwards who stand to benefit a lot from an improved power play. The Oiler forwards have some room to grow as their shooting percentages regress but the big area with growth potential is the much maligned power play.

 

Next week part 2 of the Western Conference forwards

 

Real or Imagined – Defensemen (2014)
Real or Imagined – Goaltenders (2014)