Real or Imagined – Goalies (2014)

Doran Libin

2014-11-24

MikeSmith

Projecting what’s ahead for the goalies of the Western Conference. Buy, sell, or hold?

It's the quarter pole of the NHL season and poolies everywhere are wondering whether they have Big Bird or his imaginary friend Snuffleupagus. With such a small sample size it's easy to get carried away with a player's hot start or it can seem as if a player's season is already as down and out as Milan Lucic on Friday night. It's easy to panic at this point which can lead to the kind of lopsided trades that end up being the goal post to your fantasy season's Steven Stamkos. To avoid that outcome the next three columns will examine the goalies, the defensemen and the forwards of the Western Conference.

Fasth

2-4-1

3.38

.891

Sell/Hold

The Oilers are as bad as Dallas defensively. If you have to own one Edmonton goalie I would go with Fasth. Scrivens has not posted a save percentage over .910 outside of last year when he spent time in Los Angeles. Hmmm… it is shocking to see what playing in Edmonton and Toronto will do to a goalie. Fasth's first season in Anaheim was better than anything Scrivens has done. I think we know who Scrivens is, I am not prepared to say the same about Fasth just yet.

Los Angeles

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Quick	17	10-3-4	2.05	.938	Hold
Jones	7	1-2-0	1.83	.928	Hold

Los Angeles started the year in disconcerting fashion with horrible possession numbers going from 55% corsi historically to 45% corsi to start the year. That did not stop Quick from basically single handedly carrying the Kings to a decent start. Quick's numbers will regress but as the Kings as a team improve, or return to norm, Quick will be fine and remain a high end goalie. Jones is an elite back-up who makes a good depth goalie option.

Minnesota

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Kuemper	14	9-5-0	2.03	.918	Buy
Backstrom	4	2-2-0	2.55	.890	Hold

Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in hockey as the only team allowing less than 25 shots per 60 at even strength, at 23.56. They are also the only team under 3.5 shots per game from high percentage areas at even strength (the next best team is Nashville at 3.89). If they ever get their power play going this is going to be scary with their goalies piling up wins. Kuemper has actually only been decent at even strength stopping just 90% of shots he has faced, I expect his numbers to get a nice boost making him a nice buy option. I'd sell Backstrom if he was not on Minnesota, the way Minnesota is playing I would lean towards keeping any Minnesota goalie.

Nashville

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Rinne	16	12-3-1	1.92	.930	Hold
Hutton	3	0-2-1	2.32	.914	Hold

Nashville is second only to Minnesota as a defensive team so while Rinne will regress a bit from his current lofty levels this should be viewed as Rinne's return to being an elite goalie after last year's injury. With Nashville's better offense Rinne's strong performances will be rewarded with more wins as opposed to just GAA and save percentage boosting numbers. Hutton is a solid backup on a defensive stalwart, in deep leagues he will provide a nice boost.

San Jose

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Niemi	15	7-6-2	2.56	.917	Hold/Very Soft Sell
Stalock	5	2-2-1	2.38	.925	Hold/Buy
Grosenick	2	1-1-0	1.53	.948	Waive

Niemi is posting very good numbers again for San Jose but not being rewarded for it because San Jose has slipped as a defensive team as can seen by their slipping possession numbers, down to 51.5% from 53.5%. Niemi seems to have a lock on the starting job in San Jose but Stalock has better numbers than and the Sharks have played better in front of him. If you take after Kenny Rogers, and like a bit of a gamble, bet on Stalock to finish the year as the starter in San Jose.

St Louis

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Elliott	12	7-4-1	1.89	.928	Hold/Sell
Allen	7	5-2-0	2.00	.922	Hold/Buy

Another great defensive team where either goalie will get you nice numbers, although there is definitely a platoon going on. If you are riding either of these horses as your main goalie you could be in trouble as they will not get the games unless one of them gets injured. Elliott is riding an unsustainable .944 even strength save percentage and looks to be the most likely of this tandem to face regression. Allen is the better long-term option for St Louis, combine that with the more sustainable numbers and I like him to finish the year as the 1A if not the outright No.1.

Vancouver

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Miller	15	12-3-0	2.74	.900	Sell/Hold
Lack	5	1-3-1	3.30	.894	Hold/Buy

Neither of Vancouver's goalies have been particularly good this season although you would not know by looking at Ryan Miller's record. Ryan Miller makes a great sell high right now if you can convince someone that if he's winning 80% of his starts with a .900 save percentage imagine what he could with his career averages. Both Miller and Lack will see their numbers even out, as both goalies historically have a save percentage at or above .920.

Winnipeg

	Games Started	Record	GAA	SV%	Status
Pavelec	17	7-7-2	2.25	.919	Sell
Hutchinson	4	3-1-1	1.38	.948	Hold/Buy

If the season ended now Pavelec would have his posted his best career save percentage having only finished with a save percentage above .910 once in his career. This is not the real Ondrej Pavelec, sell Pavelec before the real Ondrej Pavelec stands up and the weak shots start going through the short side, through the short side. Huthcinson's numbers are not sustainable but as an unknown NHL commodity I will take his potential over Pavelec's perennial disappointment.

Next week Real or Imagined will be back with the Defensemen of the Western Conference.