December 18, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-12-18

Rare shutouts for Anderson and Lehtonen, the Canucks slumping second line, Fleury may have the mumps and more…

Craig Anderson with the 34-save shutout win to help bail his team out from a subpar performance. This ends a 10-game string of middling performances from Anderson in which he had allowed three goals or more in every start but one since November 11^th.

Anderson damn near had an empty-netter last night. I'm a big fan of points for goalies in fantasy leagues. As long as it's not a separate category but instead counts just like goals and assists by skaters then it's legit. Why not, right? Mostly, I hate the idea that there are points being scored but somehow they don't count even though your player clearly scored them.

You could, however, sell me on not counting goalie PIM. Since the goalies don't actually sit in the box for their PIM, I'm not sure they should also get credit for those in fantasy leagues.

JG Pageau made his regular season debut but skated just 10 minutes. It seems like forever ago but Pageau was a hot commodity prior to last season. I'd be intrigued if Pageau would get a top-six opportunity but until then leave him on the waiver wire.

Kyle Turris seems to be enjoying the Dave Cameron era. He has points in all four since Cameron took over. Including last night's two-goal game, Turris has five points in the last four.

Nothing has really changed under Cameron from a minutes perspective as far as Turris is concerned so it's hard to say that this is anything more than the immediate jolt that teams sometimes experience when a new coach arrives. Considering how poorly the Senators played last night (Anderson notwithstanding) you might even just chalk this up to coincidence. I have a tough time believing that Turris will score much more than 55 points he is on pace for.

Patrik Elias made his return to the Devils lineup skating over 20 minutes. Unfortunately, Elias' star crossed season continued with nothing to show for all those minutes and five SOG. Between some nagging injuries and some terrible luck Elias simply has been unable to string together some scoring. I remain a believer in Elias' ability but it's getting harder and harder to sell.

Damon Severson was a late scratch due to a lower-body injury. No word on his timetable. Not sure the Devils really missed him as Severson has been slumping with just four points in the last 21 games. But really, the whole team has been slumping as the injuries have piled up so it's hard to blame Severson entirely.

One thing worth noting on that front; Severson's shot rate the past 21 games is 2.0, while during the first 11 games it was 2.9. He's lost an entire SOG per game. Add in some teammate injuries and some regression and poof, big slump. Look at this as an opportunity. If the Devils can get healthy and gain some puck luck, Severson would be in for a nice second half.

I know Severson got dumped in a couple of my one-year pools. Probably not the time to snag him yet but he's a Watch List guy for the second half.

With Severson out Eric Gelinas and Marek Zidlicky piled up the minutes combining for over 15 on the power play alone.

Welcome back David Krejci! He returned to 18 minutes of ice time, reunited with Milan Lucic and Seth Griffith. No points for any of those three.

I want to encourage Griffith as a pickup here but I just don't have enough faith that he's the solution on that line. Frankly, I'm still waiting for the inevitable Chris Stewart trade to fill this void. Lucic and Krejci are certainly missing Jarome Iginla and it hasn't helped that Krejci's been banged up all year.

Another wrinkle with Krejci returning was Lucic, not Brad Marchand, getting help off the power play. This isn't entirely surprising as Lucic had already been held off the power play for much of the previous three games, skating a combined 37 seconds total with the man advantage. I have a tough time seeing this trend continue but it must be troubling for already antsy Lucic owners.

Carl Soderberg and Loui Eriksson were teamed up with Chris Kelly once again. I have to admit, I had my concerns about Soderberg-Eriksson as a tandem early in the year but they've really grown on me. Two points apiece last night, including the overtime winner by Eriksson.

Another start for Niklas Backstrom with Darcy Kuemper out sick. Not that Kuemper has been much better but Backstrom has now allowed 14 goals in the last four games. I never had much time for Backstrom but prior to this stretch his numbers were looking really good. Now he's at .901 for save percentage.

That doesn't necessarily mean Backstrom has played poorly. I haven't watched these past few games. I'm just presuming based on my recent experiences with Backstrom. He actually had a really nice stop on Torey Krug last night:

Jason Pominville finally got some puck luck as a random flail of a shot deflected off his skate to tie things up and push the game to overtime. He has really struggled to find the twine shooting just 6.6% this season. Maybe he was due some bad fortune after having scored on 14.0% of his shots with the Wild prior to this season.

More likely, this lowered shooting percentage is at least partly due to an increase in volume of shots from Pominville as the forward is on pace for a career high 289. That increase in volume isn't enough for me to explain a 50% drop in shooting percentage from one year to the next. Goals are coming for Pominville. Try to align yourself with him before they start to pour in.

Until then though we get the banal offerings of Daley who is clinging to fantasy relevance with five points in the last 11 games.

Canucks fans must be having flashbacks to last season when a second-half swoon completely derailed a hot start. They've lost five in a row and have scored just two goals in the last three games. I'm not ready to panic yet, the Canucks would have had a few goals last night if not for that meddling Lehtonen.

In fact, you could even argue that this one should have ended a nil-nil draw as the lone goal scored on Eddie Lack was a dusty backhander from Colton Sceviour that Lack stops 999 times out of 1000.

A big part of the recent slump has been a lack of scoring from the second line, which had started out so hot. Nick Bonino has just one goal since November 6^th and has just one point in the last eight games. Meanwhile, Chris Higgins hasn't scored at all in those eight games.

The slump isn't all that surprising though. These guys weren't going to continue on their pace to score 60-70 points. It just wasn't realistic without top unit power play time. For Higgins you've got to be looking for 40-45. Bonino, 50-55. That's what their current pace now dictates so this slump just evened things up.

Nothing came of it but the third member of that second line, Alex Burrows, got bumped onto the top power play unit for a few stretches last night. He'll be the first one to bust out of this slump (he too has one point in the last eight games) if the top power play minutes continue. Considering he stole the minutes from Jannik Hansen I'd say there are that they do.

Big boost for Thomas Greiss as Marc-Andre Fleury appears to have come down with the mumps. He could be in for a run of starts beginning tonight.

Jaden Schwartz is out week-to-week with a foot injury. Sounds like a broken foot to me, after blocking a Drew Doughty shot on Tuesday night.

Dmitri Jaskin has been called up to fill in.

Michael Grabner is back on IR with a lower-body injury. Safe to say he's achieved Band-Aid Boy status. It's a real shame too because I liked how he was fitting in as a depth guy for the Islanders. Not that he was all that relevant for fantasy purposes. That 30-goal season he once had looks like a onetime occurrence. But plenty of flashes in the pan have gone on to important depth roles. See Jarret Stoll for the Kings.

Let's talk about a few more prospects to try and snag before the World Junior tournament at the end of the month:

David Pastrnak – RW – Bruins

I'm a huge fan of Pastrnak's game. He is scoring over a point per game in the AHL this season and had a brief NHL cameo where he demonstrated his future as a big-time shot taker.

This will be his second go around for the Czech Republic after scoring three points in five games as a 17-year-old. A year older, a year stronger and a year wiser, expect Pastrnak to have a big tournament. You may not even want to deal him as I have a feeling he's going to be a good one to own in fantasy leagues very soon.

Juuse Saros – G – Predators

Consider this selling opportunity number two as Saros starred for Finland's gold medal winner at last year's tournament. They may not win again this year but Saros should still impress, which could net a strong return for you.

Betting on Finnish goaltenders is a good habit in general. While Saros isn't a hulking goaltender as has become tradition that just makes his play in goal all the more impressive. He's one to sell high on after the tournament though because the timeline for goaltenders is so long. Saros being in the Predators system doesn't really help in that regard what with Pekka Rinne so well entrenched. Not to mention that Saros has yet to make the leap to North America.

Martin Reway – F – Canadiens

I'm not all that interested in Reway as a fantasy prospect even though he has scored at every level. I just don't like how he went back to play in the Czech league after a couple of years in the QMJHL that got him drafted. It suggests to me that Reway may not be 100% committed to playing NHL hockey.

That said, Reway put up huge numbers for Slovakia with 10 points in five games at last year's tournament. Another performance like that would get the hype machine rolling in your favour if you can scoop him up now.

James Neal became the first player fined for embellishment this season. On one hand, I love that the NHL has taken the step to publicize these fines. It creates a double punishment with public shaming being added to the monetary penalty. On the other hand, I can't help but wonder how it took until 30 games to have our first guy busted for his second diving offense. It really calls into question how seriously the NHL is taking this.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11	CAR	vs	PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11	MTL	vs	CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11	BUF	vs	OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11	TOR	vs	BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11	NYI	vs	PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11	MIN	vs	L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11	STL	vs	T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11	WPG	vs	UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11	COL	vs	SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11	ANA	vs	VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11	S.J	vs	CBJ