In Part II of his Pre-Season Standings Projection column, Vollman looks at the consensus picks in the Western Conference.

 

Central Division

 

1. Chicago Blackhawks

 

Average prediction: 1.39

 

Optimistic view: Two thirds of analysts have Chicago atop the Central division.

 

Pessimistic view: There are only five analysts that don’t have the Hawks finishing as either the champion or the runner-up. Sean Hartnett, Todd Little, Tyler Bleszinski, James McClure, and Darryl Dobbs all have them finishing third.

 

Interesting note: The Hawks have the fewest analysts predicting third place or worse, with five. The Penguins are next with six, the Bruins with seven, and Los Angeles with nine.

 

Rob’s take: It’s hard to argue against a first place finish, because this team is awesome.

 

2. St. Louis Blues

 

Average prediction: 1.91

 

Optimistic view: Almost a third of all analysts awarded the division crown to St. Louis.

 

Pessimistic view: Dave Turner and Matt Cane predicted fifth, if you can believe it, while Nick Mendola predicted fourth. Another 14% predicted the Blues would finish third.

 

Interesting note: Blues were the second most common second place selection in the league, one back of Tampa Bay. The Central division has the widest gap between second and third.

 

Rob’s take: The top two spots in the Central seem pretty obvious.

 

3. Dallas Stars

 

Average prediction: 3.32

 

Optimistic view: 15% of analysts have the Stars in the top two, including James McClure as the long voice predicting first.

 

Pessimistic view: Ignoring the Supporters View, who strangely has them finishing last, the most pessimistic nine analysts see the Stars finishing as low as fifth, including Sportsnet, Bovada odds makers, and the USA Today Power Rankings.

 

Interesting note: Dallas has the second largest expected jump in the NHL, behind only the Islanders.

 

Rob’s take: That blue line helps me see the possibility of another fifth place finish, but I agree that they’re far more likely to finish third.

 

4. Minnesota Wild

 

Average prediction: 4.22

 

Optimistic view: Four analysts predict a second place finish for Minnesota, the most notable being Darryl Dobbs (the others being Supporters View, Nick Mendola, and Dave Turner).

 

Pessimistic view: Six analysts have Minnesota finishing second last, including the EA Sports Simulator and Josh Cooper.

 

Interesting note: 71% of analysts are evenly divided between fourth and fifth, almost exactly like Colorado.

 

Rob’s take: Yep, I’m still good with the Central so far.

 

5. Colorado Avalanche

 

Average prediction: 4.51

 

Optimistic view: The Hockey Forecaster boldly predicts the Avalanche will defend their divisional crown, Matt Cane has them second, and 11% of analysts have them finishing third.

 

Pessimistic view: Grant Jenkins is the lone analyst predicting dead last, but there at least as many predicting sixth as there are predicting third or better, including Dave Lozo, Arik Parnass, and Ryan Lambert.

 

Interesting note: Several interesting notes about the Avalanche have already been sprinkled about. They’re definitely a team to watch, partly of the largest expected drop in the standings (tied with Philly).

 

Rob’s take: I’m with the pessimists here, and predict a big drop as far as sixth place.

 

6. Nashville Predators

 

Average prediction: 5.84

 

Optimistic view: Dave Lozo predicts second, Shawn Willken predicts third, and five others predict fourth (Jen LC, Robb Tufts, Owen Munro, Michael Clifford, Matt Cane).

 

Pessimistic view: Nashville could finish last, according to 15% of analysts, including the Hockey Forecaster, the Official NHL Yearbook, the Hockey Prospectus VUKOTA system, the Bovada odds makers, and Brian Costello of the Hockey News.

 

Interesting note: 64% of analysts predicted the Predators to finish sixth (and/or second last), the most common prediction for that position by far (Edmonton is next, with 43%).

 

Rob’s take: The Predators have made big moves towards possession-based hockey, and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs even in the tough Central. I say fifth, or better.

 

7. Winnipeg Jets

 

Average prediction: 6.82

 

Optimistic view: Only one in six analysts predict the Jets will finish out of the basement, and only Grant Jenkins has them as high as fifth.

 

Pessimistic view: About five in six analysts have the Jets dead last in the Central, the third strongest consensus in the league, behind Carolina and Buffalo.