Pre-Season Standings Predictions: Western Conference

steve laidlaw

2014-10-11

JonathanToews

In Part II of his Pre-Season Standings Projection column, Vollman looks at the consensus picks in the Western Conference.

Central Division

1. Chicago Blackhawks

Average prediction: 1.39

Optimistic view: Two thirds of analysts have Chicago atop the Central division.

Pessimistic view: There are only five analysts that don’t have the Hawks finishing as either the champion or the runner-up. Sean Hartnett, Todd Little, Tyler Bleszinski, James McClure, and Darryl Dobbs all have them finishing third.

Interesting note: The Hawks have the fewest analysts predicting third place or worse, with five. The Penguins are next with six, the Bruins with seven, and Los Angeles with nine.

Rob’s take: It’s hard to argue against a first place finish, because this team is awesome.

2. St. Louis Blues

Average prediction: 1.91

Optimistic view: Almost a third of all analysts awarded the division crown to St. Louis.

Pessimistic view: Dave Turner and Matt Cane predicted fifth, if you can believe it, while Nick Mendola predicted fourth. Another 14% predicted the Blues would finish third.

Interesting note: Blues were the second most common second place selection in the league, one back of Tampa Bay. The Central division has the widest gap between second and third.

Rob’s take: The top two spots in the Central seem pretty obvious.

3. Dallas Stars

Average prediction: 3.32

Optimistic view: 15% of analysts have the Stars in the top two, including James McClure as the long voice predicting first.

Pessimistic view: Ignoring the Supporters View, who strangely has them finishing last, the most pessimistic nine analysts see the Stars finishing as low as fifth, including Sportsnet, Bovada odds makers, and the USA Today Power Rankings.

Interesting note: Dallas has the second largest expected jump in the NHL, behind only the Islanders.

Rob’s take: That blue line helps me see the possibility of another fifth place finish, but I agree that they’re far more likely to finish third.

4. Minnesota Wild

Average prediction: 4.22

Optimistic view: Four analysts predict a second place finish for Minnesota, the most notable being Darryl Dobbs (the others being Supporters View, Nick Mendola, and Dave Turner).

Pessimistic view: Six analysts have Minnesota finishing second last, including the EA Sports Simulator and Josh Cooper.

Interesting note: 71% of analysts are evenly divided between fourth and fifth, almost exactly like Colorado.

Rob’s take: Yep, I’m still good with the Central so far.

5. Colorado Avalanche

Average prediction: 4.51

Optimistic view: The Hockey Forecaster boldly predicts the Avalanche will defend their divisional crown, Matt Cane has them second, and 11% of analysts have them finishing third.

Pessimistic view: Grant Jenkins is the lone analyst predicting dead last, but there at least as many predicting sixth as there are predicting third or better, including Dave Lozo, Arik Parnass, and Ryan Lambert.

Interesting note: Several interesting notes about the Avalanche have already been sprinkled about. They’re definitely a team to watch, partly of the largest expected drop in the standings (tied with Philly).

Rob’s take: I’m with the pessimists here, and predict a big drop as far as sixth place.

6. Nashville Predators

Average prediction: 5.84

Optimistic view: Dave Lozo predicts second, Shawn Willken predicts third, and five others predict fourth (Jen LC, Robb Tufts, Owen Munro, Michael Clifford, Matt Cane).

Pessimistic view: Nashville could finish last, according to 15% of analysts, including the Hockey Forecaster, the Official NHL Yearbook, the Hockey Prospectus VUKOTA system, the Bovada odds makers, and Brian Costello of the Hockey News.

Interesting note: 64% of analysts predicted the Predators to finish sixth (and/or second last), the most common prediction for that position by far (Edmonton is next, with 43%).

Rob’s take: The Predators have made big moves towards possession-based hockey, and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs even in the tough Central. I say fifth, or better.

7. Winnipeg Jets

Average prediction: 6.82

Optimistic view: Only one in six analysts predict the Jets will finish out of the basement, and only Grant Jenkins has them as high as fifth.

Pessimistic view: About five in six analysts have the Jets dead last in the Central, the third strongest consensus in the league, behind Carolina and Buffalo.

Average prediction: 1.68

Optimistic view: 41% analysts have the defending Stanley Cup champions winning the Pacific division, which is actually less than Anaheim, making them the most popular choice in the league among the non-favourites.

Pessimistic view: About one in ten analysts have the Kings finishing third, which is actually half the number that predict the same for the Ducks. Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski, SB Nation’s Ted Starkey and Matt Brigidi, Shawn Willken, Andreas Matsoukas, Ken Campbell of the Hockey News and the Hockey Forecaster are all among those few pessimists.

Rob’s take: First place for the champs.

2. Anaheim Ducks

Average prediction: 1.70

Optimistic view: Just barely over half of the analysts predict another division crown for Gordon Bombay.

Pessimistic view: The top three positions in the Pacific have come in several orders, including one-in-six that rank Anaheim last among California’s powerhouse teams. That includes CBS’ Chris Peters, one of last year’s most accurate prognosticator, and James Mirtle, one of the worst. Of those that see the Ducks finishing third, the great majority have the Kings in first, rather than the Sharks.

Interesting note: The tightest race for both first and last was in the Pacific.

Rob’s take: I’m with the pessimists who rank them third.

3. San Jose Sharks

Average prediction: 2.78

Optimistic view: An outsider’s choice for first place held by only seven analysts, which nevertheless makes San Jose the ninth most likely team to win its division. Believers include the Hockey Forecaster, SB Nation’s Andrew Berkshire, Matt Brigidi, and Ted Starkey, Nick Cotsonika, James Mirtle, and Michael Clifford.

Pessimistic view: Only ten analysts see the Sharks finishing outside the top three, including Joe Haggerty, the lone voice for fifth.

Interesting note: While 11 analysts see one of the California teams finishing outside the top three, two fewer sees the same fate for one of Boston, Tampa Bay, or Montreal in the Atlantic. Montreal is also the only team with more third-place votes than San Jose, with Dallas a distant third (which doesn’t count as an additional third place vote).

Rob’s take: I actually like the Sharks for second place, ahead of the Ducks.

4. Vancouver Canucks

Average prediction: 4.46

Optimistic view: Donny Rivette of the Litter Box Cats and Adam Rickert of eDraft both have Vancouver finishing second, if you can believe it. Six more have the Canucks in third, including Owen Munro, Justin Cait, Joe Haggerty, Tyler Atwood, and James McClure.

Pessimistic view: Four analysts see the Canucks finishing dead last in the Pacific, three of whom write for St. Louis Game Time. The other is the NHL Trade Rumors site. Nine others have them finishing sixth, including Dave Lozo, and Adam Proteau and Ronnie Shuker of the Hockey News.

Interesting note: The largest gap between third and fourth is in the Pacific. Vancouver tied Detroit for the most common choice for fourth place, with a little over half.

Rob’s take: Fourth place makes sense to me.

5. Arizona Coyotes

Average prediction: 5.03

Optimistic view: Amazingly, Ashley Sorgea ranks Arizona second in the Pacific, while colleague Brian Wiedler, and SB Nation’s Tyler Bleszinski predicted third.

Pessimistic view: Eight analysts predicted dead last, including McKeen’s magazine, Brian Costello of the Hockey News, Chris Morgan, and Dave Lozo.

Interesting note: The Coyotes were the most common fifth-place prediction in the league, ahead of a tight pack that includes Toronto, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Rob’s take: I’m prepared to go with fifth, but it’ll be close.

6. Edmonton Oilers

Average prediction: 5.90

Optimistic view: Seven analysts predict a fourth place finish for Edmonton, including Darryl Dobbs, Dave Lozo, Ronnie Shuker of the Hockey News, Robb Tufts and Jason McAdams of St. Louis Game Time, Greg Niemczyk, and Nick Mendola.

Pessimistic view: Over a quarter of the analysts have the Oilers finishing dead last.

Interesting note: The Oilers are the second most common selection for sixth (and/or second last), behind only Nashville.

Rob’s take: Edmonton has a lot of potential to finish higher, but sixth is definitely the conservative prediction.

7. Calgary Flames

Average prediction: 6.43

Optimistic view: Three analysts have the Flames finishing fourth, including the Hockey Forecaster, Jen Neale, and Dave Turner. Nine more have Calgary finishing fifth.

Pessimistic view: Almost three in five analysts have the Flames dead last in the Pacific, which is actually the lowest consensus among expected basement dwellers.

Interesting note: Fewer than one in nine analysts predict one of Alberta’s teams makes the top four, and presumably the playoffs. That’s seen as being only slightly less likely than one of California’s teams falling to fourth or below.

Rob’s take: Bollig and Engelland are not the sort of high-profile acquisitions made by a team aiming for a playoff spot. One more good draft pick and then they can start going for it.

Closing Thoughts

While these pre-season predictions are mostly for entertainment purposes, they can still be useful to remind us what the expectations were when the puck was first dropped. It can help us identify which teams truly did have great seasons, which coaches were most effective, and which goalies and/or leaders were most valuable.

They can also be used to help improve our predictions in the future. Last year I had great conversations with the few analysts who predicted the success of Colorado and/or Tampa Bay, and several of the organizations who hired hockey analytics folks this summer did so because of an understanding of how their struggles were predicted. There are factors that get overvalued or underestimated, and this can be a great way to find them.

But above everything else, don’t take these predictions too seriously. Even those that are accurate right now will quickly become obsolete thanks to injuries, front office moves, coaching decisions, and puck luck. Enjoy them for what they are!

If you missed Part I covering the Eastern Conference, check it out here.