January 1, 2015
steve laidlaw
2015-01-01
Byfuglien loving it on D, Thornton and Lupul hurt, Pastrnak is the bees knees and more…
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Happy New Year, everyone! I had to type “2015” in as the date and just had a panic attack. It’s been 10 years since I graduated high school. Where has the time gone?
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Remember to set your lineups early as the Winter Classic drops the puck at 1 pm Eastern.
It is possible that the game will be delayed because of sun glare but that's no excuse not to have those lineups in on time.
Hopefully you crawled out of bed early enough to see this reminder!
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I’d also like to offer my sincere apologies for whatever I missed from a jam-packed day of action. Between all the festivities and all the games I just couldn’t touch on everything. I hit what I could especially the highlights from what I watched.
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Let's start with some World Juniors talk.
Pretty underwhelmed with Switzerland's Kevin Fiala. I missed his hat-trick in the opening game but he's been held off the board since and while he's had some dangerous moments I don't get the vibe that he's a dominating offensive force.
It's always tough to judge the top players on some of the weaker teams at this tournament but if I were to compare Fiala to say, Denmark's Nikolaj Ehlers, well it's no contest. I like Ehlers way more. More speed, more creativity. It's a small sample but I see no reason why the Jets would regret having taken Ehlers with Fiala still available.
That being said, get Fiala some stronger teammates and I'm sure he could put up some numbers but my early feeling is that this guy is not top-line material, which puts a low ceiling on what he can do for you as a fantasy asset.
The Swiss player who has really jumped out to me in the tournament is Noah Rod who has proven to be no inanimate carbon rod. If you're looking for someone who will make an impact in your rotisserie league then Rod is your guy. He's just a hard ass, contesting every inch of the ice. He's the heir apparent to the Tommy Wingels spot in San Jose.
Philadelphia prospect Oskar Lindblom's impressive tournament just crescendo-ed with a hat-trick. He was a bit of a vulture snagging power-play goals on the doorstep but I'm not going to begrudge a player getting to the net on the power play. It's the logical move.
Lindblom has really benefitted from skating alongside top prospect William Nylander but as we continue to learn, skating with brilliance is a skill and he's fit in. He probably tops out as a second-line talent in the NHL but if he can ever squeeze onto the power play with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, well that would be lucrative. The best move, if you have Lindblom is to use the hype here to sell for an upgrade.
I have a feeling we might see Kings prospect Adrian Kempe in the NHL sooner rather than later. The Kings have finally picked up their scoring levels with Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik hitting their stride but they are starting to have issues finding depth scoring as That 70's Line has gone cold. Add in the fact that veterans like Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams need new contracts and that Mike Richards and Dustin Brown are fossilizing before our eyes and you can see that the Kings will have a need up front.
Jordan Weal is probably the next man up having scored at a point-per-game level the past couple of seasons in the AHL but Kempe is right there with him. The key will be getting him to make the jump to North America for next season.
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Awesome game between Canada and USA. It was tightly contested for the most part, though Canada certainly held an edge in possession and looked headed towards a reasonably comfortable win until Dylan Larkin showed up.
Larkin scored a couple of late goals to keep Canada on edge but it ultimately just served to pad the stats for Sam Reinhart and Max Domi who scored empty-netters. Still, you can certainly tell why the Red Wings have refused to include Larkin in any trades despite being loaded up front and having a need on defense.
The question for me is if Larkin will be forced to endure the long developmental process most Red Wings prospects go through. My guess is yes, which is why I'd use this tournament as an opportunity to sell Larkin even though he's clearly a great talent with big fantasy upside.
I remain underwhelmed by Anthony DeAngelo. Sure, he scored in this one but it was on a muffed pass not even intended for him on the power play. Full marks for jumping on the biscuit and having the instincts to press towards the goal but I'm not seeing what makes him special.
I have been similarly underwhelmed by Joe Hicketts but the difference is Hicketts was undrafted and available in 99% of fantasy leagues. DeAngelo was a first rounder. I just don't see what makes one better than the other. They both have some nice passing skills but aren't very explosive nor very strong. How they are developed at the next level will decide a lot about what they can accomplish in the NHL. The good news on that front is that the Red Wings (Hicketts) and Lightning (DeAngelo) have proven exceptional at player development. Given that, I wouldn't bet against either but expect a long wait.
As an example, Ryan Ellis is an undersized defenseman who was explosive at this tournament and still did full time in junior and then split time between the AHL and NHL in his first two seasons as a pro before making it full-time last season. In his sixth year since being drafted Ellis still isn't fantasy relevant in most pools. DeAngelo and Hicketts are in year one post-draft.
Darnell Nurse was fantastic last night acting in a shutdown role against Jack Eichel's line. He helped to keep that group quiet outside of a power-play score. Nurse was also active jumping up into the rush for a few chances. He certainly flashed that top-pairing upside he has.
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I can't say enough about David Pastrnak. Three assists in a do-or-die game against the favoured Russians to keep his team alive. What a beauty. Offer the world for this kid. As an example, I offered Tyson Barrie and was rebuffed!
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Lethal game from the line of Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen and Ryan Strome combining for four goals and nine points.
Strome led the way with four points to give him six in the last two but it's becoming increasingly clear that the scoring won't be consistent. That's okay, mind you, it just means Strome will finish closer to 50 points than any higher, which is still exceptional for the sophomore.
Nielsen has seen some pull back in his scoring after a stellar 58-point performance. He's on pace for 46 but can probably do a little bit better. His on-ice shooting percentage at even strength of 6.53% should climb up to league-average by season's end, which will help match his impressive power-production (nine power-play points already.)
Jaroslav Halak is going streaking again having won six in a row. This after having won 11 in a row previously this year.
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The Ondrej Palat–Tyler Johnson–Nikita Kucherov line went off for 10 combined points, which, at this point, is just a walk in the park for these guys.
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Healthy scratch for Mason Raymond last night who has been ice cold with no points in 10 games since returning from injury. This after such a hot start with seven in his first 10. Maybe this sparks Raymond like the scratch did for Johnny Gaudreau earlier in the year but the difference is Raymond is an established veteran with contract security.
Raymond has also been buried skating 13 minutes a night on the third line predominantly with Joe Colborne (ice cold until scoring two goals last night) and Paul Byron. He has seen some second unit power play time but that's not enough to achieve great relevance.
Raymond can get you 20-25 points in the second half if things click but I wouldn't count on it. Seems like a serious depth guy at this point.
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Colorado's Zach Redmond was scratched last night as well. I'm more optimistic that this could have positive results for Redmond who has slumped with just one point in the last seven games.
He's only been a third-pairing/second power play guy for Colorado but Redmond has some solid upside, especially if there's an injury to either Tyson Barrie or Erik Johnson and can offer some reasonable depth scoring even without that. I wouldn't bank on getting more than 15 points in the second half but that would play in a lot of leagues.
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I'm hearing lots of rumblings about an extension for Christian Ehrhoff. He has certainly been a good player for the Penguins this season (though not a fantasy-relevant one.) On the surface you'd figure that locking up Ehrhoff would be bad news for Penguins prospects like Derrick Pouliot but there's a chance that it's good, and sooner rather than later.
The Penguins probably don't have the cap space next season to extend Ehrhoff and hang onto Paul Martin, who has been underwhelming for what he's been paid. If these extension talks are legit, then it's only a matter of time before the Martin trade rumours pop up again.
It would be easier to move Martin during the summer. All trades are easier then. But the Penguins could fill a need at forward by moving Martin now and could clear up their future cap situation for Ehrhoff's extension. That would mean locking Pouliot into a roster spot for this season.
It will be interesting to see if Pouliot sticks when Olli Maatta returns at some point over the next month. Regardless, Pouliot has established himself as the #1 call-up. He also looks like the likely replacement on the top power play if (when) Kris Letang gets hurt.
Ehrhoff made his return to the lineup last night which limited Pouliot to just 14:58. That gives me the inkling that Pouliot will get sent down when Maatta returns if everyone else is healthy. Keep in mind Martin is still out of the lineup. Still some work to be done to keep Pouliot around.
More Penguins injury news, Beau Bennett returned to the lineup and skated on the second line with Sutter and Kunitz. That line combined for both Penguin goals so hurray for Bennett. The over/under is 20.5 games before he gets hurt again.
More Penguins thoughts, this time from SBNation's Pensburgh blog: does Evgeni Malkin make Brandon Sutter better?
Two big takeaways here. First, both Sutter and Malkin put up more goals and points when playing away from each other this year. This counsels strongly in favor of not pairing them together in the future. Second, Sutter does not improve offensively when playing with Malkin. It is, in fact, the reverse. This is especially important because most of the rationale for pairing these two together is based on the claim that Malkin unlocks Sutter’s offensive talent. If offensive talent means goals and points, Sutter does better away from Malkin.
The article does go on to point out the sample size of these two playing together is very small. There is also evidence that while their scoring numbers go up apart, they post better possession numbers together. But I'll be keeping this in mind next time the Penguins pair these two up to not assume it will be productive.
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Jordan Staal was absent from the Hurricanes lineup last night, just one game after returning from a broken leg. I couldn't dig up any firm details on the matter but this is disconcerting.
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Joffrey Lupul left last night's contest and did not return. Apparently he will not travel with the team instead he's headed home for an MRI. As much as you know what you are getting into when you invest in a Band-Aid Boy it never gets any less disappointing when they get hurt.
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In unexpected injury news, Joe Thornton left last night's game against the Ducks clutching his shoulder and did not return. That's a real shame as the Sharks are heading on a heavy home part of their schedule, which would mean Thornton might miss the most productive portion of their schedule.
Hopefully it's nothing. Thornton has only missed five games since joining the Sharks and is a veritable iron man. I'm optimistic but the optics aren't good.
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17-0-5 — The Anaheim Ducks' record in one-goal games. Which seems impressive, right? Must be a pretty tough group mentally to win that many close games, without losing even one in regulation. Funny thing, though — a lot of people will use this against them, arguing that the Ducks have had an inordinate amount of luck on their side and that the team isn't as good as its record suggests. One piece of evidence those people may cite? The Colorado Avalanche were an NHL-best 28-4-8 in one-goal games last season. This season, the Avs are 8-6-8. (P.S. — Don't shoot the messenger, there's been this argument in baseball for a while now.)
I've had my eye on the Ducks' middling goal differential for a while now. They sit at just plus-six despite owning the top record in the league. The record in one-goal games is another proxy for goal differential. It certainly hints that there could be some losses in the future if they keep playing tight games. That would spell trouble for Freddie Andersen down the stretch.
I'm not too down on the Ducks though. I think they could start dominating games more frequently as they get healthy with important guys like Corey Perry and Francois Beauchemin returning. And hey, they lost by multiple goals last night, so the irregular numbers continue!
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Oh my goodness, Pierre McGuire has done it again: