Looking Ahead 2014: Week 14

Mike Schmidt

2015-01-02

NickFoligno

 

The best schedules in fantasy hockey for Week 14.

 

Let's ring in 2015 by taking a look at three of the most surprising individual statistical performances of the final three months of this past year and what can be expected from the players who submitted them in the near future.

 

.937 – Winnipeg goaltender Michael Hutchinson's save percentage – The Jets organization should be lauded for finally turning to someone other than Ondrej Pavelec to man the net on a regular basis. However, it remains to be seen if Hutchinson is a viable No. 1 netminder or just someone who's most successful stretch of play as a professional goaltender coincided with his first opportunity to see regular action in the NHL.

 

A 2008 third-round selection by Boston, Hutchinson posted solid numbers in the ECHL and AHL — including a save percentage of about .915 – during his first four seasons as a pro. He was never considered a top prospect, but Hutchinson has done nothing but play at an elite level since breaking into the NHL as a late-season call-up a year ago. No player boasts a higher save percentage than Hutchinson's .937 this season, and only St. Louis's Brian Elliott and Colorado's Calvin Pickard have saved a greater percentage of shots at even strength.

 

Because he has wrestled away the starting gig from the always-underwhelming Pavelec – he of the .906 save percentage in 314 career appearances – Hutchinson is a top-20 option at the position heading into the season's second half. But his middling track record as a professional and the Jets' injury woes should prevent fantasy owners from expecting much more than that from Hutchinson in the long term. He's a serviceable fantasy option in net, nothing more.

 

17 – Columbus winger Nick Foligno's goal total – The 27-year-old winger is a fine all-around player and top-six forward, but no one could have expected he would have scored 17 goals before New Year's Day 2015 after totaling 18 in 70 games a year ago. Foligno has stepped up due to injuries to his fellow Blue Jacket forwards and been an unexpected source of power-play production (thanks in great part to playing alongside offensive-minded teammates Ryan Johansen and Jack Johnson). Through 34 games, he has totaled a whopping 32 points.

 

Despite his strong start, Foligno has not suddenly developed into a top-notch goal scorer and point-per-game player in his eighth season in the league. He's never scored 20 goals in a season. His career shooting percentage is .123, and he's never shot better than .162 in a season. This year, Foligno is shooting .221.

 

His role as a key player on Columbus's top power-play unit and his reputation as solid top-six forward should allow Foligno to continue to be a productive fantasy option down the stretch. But owners who continue to expect elite stats from a player who didn't provide them before this season should prepare themselves for disappointment. He's a good player, not a great one.

 

25 – Calgary defenseman Mark Giordano's assist total – It seems like the 31-year-old defenseman keeps getting better with age. Giordano transformed himself from a decent fantasy blueliner into a very good one during the 2013-14 campaign. This season, he's playing like the best version of Erik Karlsson. Through 39 games, he's totaled 35 points.

 

Is Giordano's near-point-per-game pace sustainable? Probably not. His PDO on the season is 1.045, and he's racking up assists like an elite No. 1 center. As it stands, Giordano has registered 25 assists in 39 games played in 2014-15. He's never totaled more than 35 over a full season.

 

Good things are happening for the Flames when Giordano is on the ice, and he's one of the main reasons why. But the veteran blueliner is also on the receiving end of some good fortune, and chances are his numbers will regress a bit in the season's second half. His track record suggests he's more 50-point defenseman than 75-point defenseman. That makes Giordano a valuable defenseman in all fantasy leagues and formats, but not an all-world superstar capable of carrying his owners' squads.

 

Now let's take a look ahead at some teams to lean on or avoid in the coming week or so:

 

Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming week)

Steer Clear

Pittsburgh 1.94 – two games – BOS and MTL

Montreal 2.00 – two games – TBL and PIT

Toronto 2.05 – two games – WAS and CBJ

Anaheim 2.10 – two games – NSH and NYR

Los Angeles 2.51 – two games -NYR and WPG

Monday, January 5 to Sunday, January 11

Best Bets

Chicago 4.00 – four games – COL, MINx2 and EDM

San Jose 3.80 – four games – WPG, MIN, STL and NYR

Minnesota 3.80 – four games – three at home

Winnipeg 3.71 – four games – SJS, ARI, LAK and ANA

Vancouver 3.52 – three games – all at home

Steer Clear

Toronto 2.05 – two games – WAS and CBJ

Pittsburgh 1.94 – two games – BOS and MTL

Anaheim 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG

Montreal 2.00 – two games – TBL and PIT

Los Angeles 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG

Tuesday, January 6 to Monday, January 12

Best Bets

Philadelphia 4.15 – four games – all at home

Chicago 4.00 – four games – COL, MINx2 and EDM

Colorado 3.91 – four games – CHI, OTT, DAL and WAS

Washington 4.00 – four games – TOR, PHI, DET and COL

Minnesota 3.80 – four games – all at home

Steer Clear

Pittsburgh 1.94 – two games – BOS and TBL

Montreal 2.00 – two games -TBL and PIT

Anaheim 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG

New York Rangers 2.57 – three games – all on road

Winnipeg 2.71 – three games – all on road

Wednesday, January 7 to Tuesday, January 13

Best Bets

Florida 4.18 – four games – VAN, CGY, EDM and WPG

Colorado 4.10 – four games – OTT, DAL, WAS and CAR

Boston 4.01 – four games – PIT, NJD, PHI and TBL

Washington 4.00 – four games – TOR, PHI, DET and COL

Winnipeg 3.92 – four games – ARI, LAK, ANA and FLA

Steer Clear

Montreal 0.95 – one game – PIT

New Jersey 1.96 – two games – BOS and NYI

Columbus 2.10 – two games – TOR and NYI

Anaheim 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG

New York Islanders 2.85 – three games – all on road

Thursday, January 8 to Wednesday, January 14

Best Bets

Los Angeles 4.41 – four games – all at home

Florida 4.18 – four games -VAN, CGY, EDM and WPG

Colorado 4.10 – four games – OTT, DAL, WAS and CAR

Washington 4.05 – four games – PHI, DET, COL and PHI

Philadelphia 4.00 – four games – WASx2, BOS and TBL

Steer Clear

Montreal 1.85 – two games – PIT and CBJ

Pittsburgh 2.05 – two games – MTL and MIN

Detroit 2.09 – two games – both on road

Calgary 2.25 – two games – FLA and VAN

Anaheim 2.26 – two games – WPG and TOR

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 13 - 19:11 WSH vs TOR
Nov 13 - 19:11 PIT vs DET
Nov 13 - 21:11 UTA vs CAR
Nov 13 - 22:11 ANA vs VGK
Nov 13 - 22:11 COL vs L.A

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
UVIS BALINSKIS FLA
EMIL ANDRAE PHI
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
JONATHAN LEKKERIMAKI VAN
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
JOEL BLOMQVIST PIT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency TOR Players
24.5 WILLIAM NYLANDER MATTHEW KNIES MAX DOMI
23.0 JOHN TAVARES BOBBY MCMANN MITCH MARNER
18.6 ALEX STEEVES DAVID KAMPF PONTUS HOLMBERG

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