Looking Ahead 2014: Week 14
Mike Schmidt
2015-01-02
The best schedules in fantasy hockey for Week 14.
Let's ring in 2015 by taking a look at three of the most surprising individual statistical performances of the final three months of this past year and what can be expected from the players who submitted them in the near future.
.937 – Winnipeg goaltender Michael Hutchinson's save percentage – The Jets organization should be lauded for finally turning to someone other than Ondrej Pavelec to man the net on a regular basis. However, it remains to be seen if Hutchinson is a viable No. 1 netminder or just someone who's most successful stretch of play as a professional goaltender coincided with his first opportunity to see regular action in the NHL.
A 2008 third-round selection by Boston, Hutchinson posted solid numbers in the ECHL and AHL — including a save percentage of about .915 – during his first four seasons as a pro. He was never considered a top prospect, but Hutchinson has done nothing but play at an elite level since breaking into the NHL as a late-season call-up a year ago. No player boasts a higher save percentage than Hutchinson's .937 this season, and only St. Louis's Brian Elliott and Colorado's Calvin Pickard have saved a greater percentage of shots at even strength.
Because he has wrestled away the starting gig from the always-underwhelming Pavelec – he of the .906 save percentage in 314 career appearances – Hutchinson is a top-20 option at the position heading into the season's second half. But his middling track record as a professional and the Jets' injury woes should prevent fantasy owners from expecting much more than that from Hutchinson in the long term. He's a serviceable fantasy option in net, nothing more.
17 – Columbus winger Nick Foligno's goal total – The 27-year-old winger is a fine all-around player and top-six forward, but no one could have expected he would have scored 17 goals before New Year's Day 2015 after totaling 18 in 70 games a year ago. Foligno has stepped up due to injuries to his fellow Blue Jacket forwards and been an unexpected source of power-play production (thanks in great part to playing alongside offensive-minded teammates Ryan Johansen and Jack Johnson). Through 34 games, he has totaled a whopping 32 points.
Despite his strong start, Foligno has not suddenly developed into a top-notch goal scorer and point-per-game player in his eighth season in the league. He's never scored 20 goals in a season. His career shooting percentage is .123, and he's never shot better than .162 in a season. This year, Foligno is shooting .221.
His role as a key player on Columbus's top power-play unit and his reputation as solid top-six forward should allow Foligno to continue to be a productive fantasy option down the stretch. But owners who continue to expect elite stats from a player who didn't provide them before this season should prepare themselves for disappointment. He's a good player, not a great one.
25 – Calgary defenseman Mark Giordano's assist total – It seems like the 31-year-old defenseman keeps getting better with age. Giordano transformed himself from a decent fantasy blueliner into a very good one during the 2013-14 campaign. This season, he's playing like the best version of Erik Karlsson. Through 39 games, he's totaled 35 points.
Is Giordano's near-point-per-game pace sustainable? Probably not. His PDO on the season is 1.045, and he's racking up assists like an elite No. 1 center. As it stands, Giordano has registered 25 assists in 39 games played in 2014-15. He's never totaled more than 35 over a full season.
Good things are happening for the Flames when Giordano is on the ice, and he's one of the main reasons why. But the veteran blueliner is also on the receiving end of some good fortune, and chances are his numbers will regress a bit in the season's second half. His track record suggests he's more 50-point defenseman than 75-point defenseman. That makes Giordano a valuable defenseman in all fantasy leagues and formats, but not an all-world superstar capable of carrying his owners' squads.
Now let's take a look ahead at some teams to lean on or avoid in the coming week or so:
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming week)
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.94 – two games – BOS and MTL
Montreal 2.00 – two games – TBL and PIT
Toronto 2.05 – two games – WAS and CBJ
Anaheim 2.10 – two games – NSH and NYR
Los Angeles 2.51 – two games -NYR and WPG
Monday, January 5 to Sunday, January 11
Best Bets
Chicago 4.00 – four games – COL, MINx2 and EDM
San Jose 3.80 – four games – WPG, MIN, STL and NYR
Minnesota 3.80 – four games – three at home
Winnipeg 3.71 – four games – SJS, ARI, LAK and ANA
Vancouver 3.52 – three games – all at home
Steer Clear
Toronto 2.05 – two games – WAS and CBJ
Pittsburgh 1.94 – two games – BOS and MTL
Anaheim 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG
Montreal 2.00 – two games – TBL and PIT
Los Angeles 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG
Tuesday, January 6 to Monday, January 12
Best Bets
Philadelphia 4.15 – four games – all at home
Chicago 4.00 – four games – COL, MINx2 and EDM
Colorado 3.91 – four games – CHI, OTT, DAL and WAS
Washington 4.00 – four games – TOR, PHI, DET and COL
Minnesota 3.80 – four games – all at home
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.94 – two games – BOS and TBL
Montreal 2.00 – two games -TBL and PIT
Anaheim 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG
New York Rangers 2.57 – three games – all on road
Winnipeg 2.71 – three games – all on road
Wednesday, January 7 to Tuesday, January 13
Best Bets
Florida 4.18 – four games – VAN, CGY, EDM and WPG
Colorado 4.10 – four games – OTT, DAL, WAS and CAR
Boston 4.01 – four games – PIT, NJD, PHI and TBL
Washington 4.00 – four games – TOR, PHI, DET and COL
Winnipeg 3.92 – four games – ARI, LAK, ANA and FLA
Steer Clear
Montreal 0.95 – one game – PIT
New Jersey 1.96 – two games – BOS and NYI
Columbus 2.10 – two games – TOR and NYI
Anaheim 2.15 – two games – NYR and WPG
New York Islanders 2.85 – three games – all on road
Thursday, January 8 to Wednesday, January 14
Best Bets
Los Angeles 4.41 – four games – all at home
Florida 4.18 – four games -VAN, CGY, EDM and WPG
Colorado 4.10 – four games – OTT, DAL, WAS and CAR
Washington 4.05 – four games – PHI, DET, COL and PHI
Philadelphia 4.00 – four games – WASx2, BOS and TBL
Steer Clear
Montreal 1.85 – two games – PIT and CBJ
Pittsburgh 2.05 – two games – MTL and MIN
Detroit 2.09 – two games – both on road
Calgary 2.25 – two games – FLA and VAN
Anaheim 2.26 – two games – WPG and TOR