The Contrarian – Kyle is OK

Thomas Drance

2015-01-04

KyleTurris

The contrarian looks at Kyle Okposo’s consistency.

On Saturday, January 3 Joel Colomby of the Toronto Sun writes in his article titled "Fantasy Fare: Okposo rides shooting roller-coaster" that Kyle Okposo is likely to be a 'good season/bad season' type player based on his shooting percentage over the last few seasons.

In his words, "Okposo is reminding us somewhat of Bret Saberhagen" who had a "penchant for alternating good and mediocre years, his ERA sitting a full point higher in even-numbered seasons. Late in his career, it might even have become a determining factor in how high he was selected in some fantasy pools."

	Stats Per Game
	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PPG	S	MsS
2014-15	0.21	0.68	0.89	-0.08	0.26	0.08	3.26	1.37
2013-14	0.38	0.59	0.97	-0.13	0.72	0.07	2.75	1.13
2012-13	0.08	0.42	0.50	-0.04	0.79	0.00	2.10	0.75
2011-12	0.30	0.27	0.57	-0.19	0.58	0.04	1.92	0.80
2010-11	0.13	0.39	0.53	0.08	1.05	0.00	1.89	0.95
2009-10	0.24	0.41	0.65	-0.28	0.43	0.05	3.11	1.23
2008-09	0.28	0.32	0.60	-0.09	0.55	0.14	2.54	0.91
2007-08	0.22	0.33	0.56	0.33	0.22	0.11	1.67	0.44

Career	0.25	0.42	0.67	-0.12	0.60	0.06	2.51	1.00

(MsS – Missed Shots)

While his goal totals fluctuate, his assists and points per game are stable. Plus/Minus has not deteriorated. Penalty minutes are down which is a great sign (except if you have that category in your roto pool). Shots and missed shots are up which even though haven't translated into goals they have helped.

We all have this idea that an assist is this picture perfect saucer pass, or a give-and-go but often it is a rebound off a goalie's pad or a deflection off a defenders stick. While we all hope that shooting more will lead to more goals, it doesn't mean that it is any worse if the player gets an assist instead. That is why using Okposo's shooting percentage is flawed.

Here are some more stats also compiled from NHL.com:

	RK	GP	ES TOI/GP	SH TOI/GP	PP TOI/GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shifts	TOI/S	Shift/GP
2014-15	3	38	15:54	0:02	3:55	755:13:00	19:52	847	53	22.3
2013-14	5	71	16:18	0:10	3:57	1,450:46	20:26	1,577	55	22.2
2012-13	8	48	15:18	0:06	1:32	813:53:00	16:57	981	50	20.4
2011-12	8	79	15:17	0:05	1:40	1,348:18	17:04	1,577	51	20
2010-11	19	38	13:32	0:29	2:32	630:09:00	16:34	740	51	19.5
2009-10	2	80	14:25	1:49	4:17	1,643:10	20:32	1,902	52	23.8
2008-09	5	65	13:28	1:21	3:10	1,170:39	18:00	1,388	51	21.4
2007-08	26	9	13:39	0:26	2:21	148:09:00	16:27	165	54	18.3

(RK is his rank based on Time On Ice only compared to his teammates)

As Gretz mentioned, his Time On Ice (TOI) is on par with the previous season and is his Power Play Time. It is not a matter of him being 'lucky' or 'unlucky' in regards to goal scoring, he is doing great and deserves the time he getting.

The best stat that represents that he's having a great year is even mentioned by Colomby, "he's earning enough assists to tie him with John Tavares for the Isle's points lead."

To that, I'll amend the title of my column to 'Kyle is doing more than Ok'.

Check out DobberHockey’s full Kyle Okposo player profile, complete with line combos, notes and line production. And bookmark it because it’s just that awesome.