Comeau last year (Columbus)

1.75

Comeau This Yeat (Pit)

2.22

In each player's case, their shot rate increased with a move to the Penguins (or decreased with a move away from the Penguins). The average change in shot rate for these players is about 23% which is a huge swing. I would agree with Laidlaw that Perron's role with Pit will be less of a Hornqvist/Kunitz and more of a Dupuis/Comeau in that I don't see Perron being on the top PP when the team is completely healthy. You can see though, that even the guys who aren't on the top PP saw shot spikes just from a role within the top six 5-on-5. If you consider Perron's SOG baseline to be his last year rate of 2.8 per game and then layer on another 20% because of the trade, you could be looking at about 3.4 shots per game! That's an incredible pace of 277 per 82 games. Layering the 20% onto Perron's career high shot total is probably a little optimistic though so I personally will project him at a still aggressive 250 SOG pace.

Goals: I personally think that the best way to predict goal output is to look at a players' individual shooting % and apply it to his projected SOG. Perron has historically shot at a solid 12.8% so I would peg him for about a 32 goal pace if he were to reach the shot pace above.

Assists: Perron amassed 29 assists last season on an Oiler team that scored 2.46 goals per game. He is now going to a team that scores 3.07 goals per game, which is a 24% increase. I think it stands to reason that he could see a corresponding 24% increase in his assist total resulting in a 36 assist pace.

+/- is a terrible category but it is commonly measured so let's address it. Perron was +45 in six years with St Louis but was -33 in two seasons with the Oil. It is clearly more of a team stat and with the Penguins, I would peg Perron at a +10 pace which is a conservative estimate.

PPP: I am assuming that Perron will be primarily on the second unit with a few stints on the top peeper. This isn't all that different than his role last season with Edmonton so I am not predicting an increase in PPP rate.

All in all, if my projections were to shake out for Perron, his 82 game pace would look something like this

If my projections are right, then those are some solid numbers… but how solid? Again, I defer to FHG to find my answer. I already ran this league using last year's totals in FHG and was able to determine that Perron was the 91^st most valuable player last season. To determine how valuable he would have been with my predictions above, I simply run a what-if? analysis on Fantasy Hockey Geek. Here is how it looks:

In a league with these settings, Perron would be the 25^th most valuable player if all of my assumptions are correct. Granted, my projections are pretty optimistic but there is enough rationale and support to believe that it could happen. 68 points and 250 shots while lining up with Malkin or Crosby? Yes, I think that's doable. If you think his output will be something else though, then just enter your projections into FHG and it will tell you just how valuable he would be.

So what do we do with Perron now? If you happen to be in one of the 44% of leagues where Perron is unowned then toggle over to Yahoo! right now and make the add. Perron is already the most added player in Yahoo though so I doubt he is available.

If you happen to be the proud owner of an underperforming Perron then thank your lucky stars and hold on to him tight.

If you are in a league where Perron is owned, then put out a feeler. It will likely be hard to pry him away now but the opposing GM may consider this an opportunity to "sell high" on someone like Perron. You may be able to get Perron for a name like Bobby Ryan or Martin St Louis and end up with the much better value.

NHL trades can have significant impact on the fantasy value of the players involved. Using a tool like Fantasy Hockey Geek to help understand the impact before the rest of your competition does can help you to ensure that as a fantasy hockey GM, you are reacting in the best possible way. Sign up for FHG today and enter your projections for Perron using your own league's settings and find out just how hard you should be chasing him.