Least in the East

Eric Daoust

2014-12-30

AlexSemin

 

Six Eastern Conference players who have performed below their projection.

 

After yesterday's coverage of slumping stars in the Western Conference, today we will follow suit and look at some fantasy-relevant players in the Eastern Conference that are not delivering the goods.

 

During the offseason we tend to go to great lengths to figure out each player's worth in the league. That is, we want to figure out our draft lists for the upcoming season. We go to the draft table with our lists based on reasonable expectations and select our team. And then reality strikes.

 

Unfortunately, a player's career is often full of ups and downs that are not in sync with what we would consider reasonable projections. When a fantasy-relevant player that you drafted underperforms it can have some devastating consequences – both literally in your league standings and also psychologically. The player is not delivering enough to justify either his draft position or the amount you gave up to get him in a trade.

 

So without further ado here is the all-bust team for the Eastern Conference.

 

Note: The expected total is based on the projected points-per-game for each player in the Dobberhockey Fantasy Guide.

 

Forwards

 

Name

Games Played

Points

Shots per Game

Time On Ice

Expected Points (Diff.)

Cody Hodgson (BUF)

35

6

1.4

13:53

25 (-19)

Milan Lucic (BOS)

36

17

1.58

16:45

26 (-9)

Alexander Semin (CAR)

22

6

1.27

16:21

17 (-11)

 

Cody Hodgson

 

Shots per Game

Time On Ice

Expected Points (Diff.)

Brian Campbell (FLA)

33

9

1.67

23:18

16 (-7)

Jake Gardiner (TOR)

33

9

1.33

20:02

19 (-10)

 

Brian Campbell

 

The usually reliable Campbell has a mere nine points this year putting him on pace to finish with just 22. He has not finished with a total that low since 2003-04 which includes a few years on poor Florida teams. With all of the ice time that he gets both overall and with the man advantage, he is bound to bounce back at some point. Having rookie phenom Aaron Ekblad next to him can only help down the stretch.

Assuming that he gets back to scoring about one point every two games he would get 20-25 points moving forward. This is good value that can help your team. If you have bench space you may want to consider taking a chance on Campbell. If he is already owned you may be able to trade for him for cheap. Fantasy owners tend to freak out with older players and at 35 they may be thinking Campbell is done.

 

Jake Gardiner

 

With Dion Phaneuf and Cody Franson earning the top power play minutes, Gardiner's numbers are suffering. He has just nine points including a disappointing three with the man advantage. The fact that Gardiner is being used in a secondary scoring role should steer you away from trying to buy low for an immediate return on investment. It may be a while before Gardiner starts putting up points frequently limiting his value to keeper leagues. Things could change this summer if Franson leaves as an unrestricted free agent. But then again, the golden boy Morgan Rielly is still there chomping at the bit.

 

Goalies

 

Name

Games Played

Wins

Goals Against Average

Save Percentage

Expected Wins (Diff.)

Tuukka Rask (BOS)

28

14

2.59

.910

17 (-3)

 

Tuukka Rask

 

After hovering close to 2.00 and .930 in each of the last three years, Rask has slipped in a big way along with the rest of the Bruins. One key factor in the decline in peripheral stats is the knee injury suffered by team captain Zdeno Chara. Even though the Bruins do not appear to be as strong of a group as in recent years, there is no reason not to expect a significant boost in play from Rask down the stretch. This will help those in leagues that count GAA and save percentage the most. Either way this is likely as bad as it gets for Rask. Buy low if you do not own him right now.

 

Dishonorable Mentions

 

Matt Read

 

With the left wing spot next to Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek up for grabs, a logical choice to fill the void was Read who brings a ton of versatility and two-way ability to the table in addition to a proven scoring touch. Things did not work out that way and Read now finds himself on the third line with sagging numbers. It cannot get worse though as Read has shown an ability to reach the 40-point mark in a secondary role before. Bonus to those in multi-category leagues where Read is a great buy-low option as he contributes everywhere except PIM.

 

For additional comments on Read, see the Real or Imagined article posted two weeks ago.

 

Morgan Rielly

 

Like Gardiner, Rielly is stuck behind some depth as he currently sits fourth among Leafs' defensemen in average power play time. However, he has had more success than Gardiner putting up points at even strength giving him 12 total points, which puts him on pace for a respectable year. Still, many were expecting more production, especially those that drafted Rielly in a keeper league and have been waiting patiently. A lot will hinge on Franson's future with the Leafs. If he goes then Rielly could be in for a fast promotion to the top PP unit. Otherwise fantasy owners may have to wait a bit longer for a breakout campaign.

 

*

 

Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.

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