There is a numbers crunch at the forward rank of the Washington Capitals. The most common lines we have seen in preseason and training camps have been as follows:

Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Ryan Leonard

Alex Tuch – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Tom Wilson

Aliaksei Protas – Ilya Protas – Jordan Kyrou

Boone Jenner – Justin Sourdif – Anthony Beauvillier

That leaves Ethen Frank, Ivan Miroshnichenko (who fell to 20^th overall in the 2022 draft due to the 'Russian factor'), Andrew Cristall (40^th overall pick in 2023), and Jonny Brodzinski (who had two goals on two shots in the preseason game against the Philadelphia Flyers) all as the 13^th forward or lower on the depth chart. None are waiver exempt except Cristall, who contributed a goal and an assist in the Capitals 5-1 preseason win against the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday. Of note, this was an AHL calibre Capitals team playing against most of the top level NHL players on the Flyers. 

When it came time for cuts, it was Cristall that was sent down to the Hershey Bears, and Brodzinski that was placed on waivers (unclaimed). It appears that Miroshnichenko and Frank have made the team but will need injuries to other forwards to avoid being healthy scratches themselves.

Rather than having a distinct top line, the Capitals have spread out their talent across the top nine, so the opposition can expect waves of even strength pressure from the Capitals. The same can be said about the power play units, which appear balanced and oozing with talent.

The power play lines are taking shape in this manner:

PP1: Ovechkin, Strome, Dubois, Wilson and Jakob Chychrun
PP2: Tuch, Kyrou, I. Protas, Leonard and Cole Hutson

That 'PP2' is better than the top unit of certain NHL teams. The big loser (by big I mean literally and figuratively as he is listed as 6'6'') is Aliaksei Protas who is crowded out from both power play units. He did have a power play goal against the Flyers in preseason action, but the entire NHL forward unit wasn’t dressed for that game. Aliaksei Protas hit 0.87 points per game two seasons ago on an inflated shooting percentage (21.4%), in just 16:27 of average ice time. That production will be hard to replicate in the new Washington environment of egalitarianism. 

What is deflating for fantasy managers, is that coach Spencer Carbery has explicitly mentioned that there is no set primary or secondary power play unit. This makes it likely that all players on the man advantage will receive approximately 50% of the team's power play time. This would be a huge drop for Alexander Ovechkin who has been accustomed to playing the full two minutes as a part of both units. He was out with a 'lower body injury' but this was probably just a way to rest the now 41 year old from the rigors of a preseason game. If he does miss time, the elder Protas can fill in, although in power play practice during training camp, it was Miroshnichenko that took Ovie's spot.

Ryan Leonard led the Capitals in penalties drawn with 32, Tom Wilson was second on the team with 29. Leonard drawing a penalty would allow Wilson's unit to start the power play, and vice versa: Wilson drawing a penalty would allow Leonard's power play unit to hop over the boards. How did this play out in the preseason? In Friday's game against the Boston Bruins, 'PP1' (the older more experienced unit with Ovechkin, Chychrun, etc..) received 3:48-3:59, while 'PP2' (younger unit with newbies Kyrou and Tuch) got only 1:02-1:13 in power play time. That is far from an even split, but it could change on a game-by-game basis so that by the end of season the two units even out. 

It appears as if Carbery will divvy up the time on ice about evenly for these top nine forwards to about 2:20-2:40 minutes of power play time and 12:30-13:00 minutes of even strength time, totalling out at about 15:30, with Wilson and A.Protas getting some additional penalty kill time. In the aforementioned pre-season game (vs the Bruins), only three forwards had more than 13:25 of even strength ice time. Wilson (13:27), I.Protas (13:51), and Kyrou (15:41). 

It is possible we see nine forwards all in the 55-60 point range without anyone going over 0.75 points per game. Last year only Wilson (0.86 ppg), Ovechkin (0.78 ppg), and Chychrun (0.75 ppg) hit or surpassed that mark. Over his last two seasons (153 games total), Wilson has scored 66 goals on 323 shots for an unsustainable 19.5% shooting percentage. Wilson provides an enormous amount of hits (2.49/game last year), but it would not be surprising to watch his points total fall due to lower time on ice, lower power play ice time, and a lower shooting percentage. 

Boone Jenner, now relegated to the fourth line, will almost certainly take a hit on his time on ice. With the Columbus Blue Jackets, Jenner averaged over 20 minutes from 2021 to 2024. In the preseason game against the Bruins, where the Capitals iced their NHL team, Jenner had a paltry 14:12 of ice time. A great streaming option in bangers leagues, Jenner will also see his hits (2.19/game) and blocks (0.99/game) suffer. Making all this even more frustrating is that the Capitals have one of the best fantasy playoff schedules.

The even strength defense pairings will see Jakob Chychrun with Matt Roy, and Cole Hutson with Vincent Desharnais. Splitting Hutson and Chychrun on the man advantage will also stifle an offensive breakout for either defenseman. If this expected deployment holds up all season, we can temper expectations on Chychrun's career high 0.75 points per game (60 points in 80 games) that he put up last year. The reason being a drop in percent of power play time from 62.7% to 50%, and a drop in shooting percentage from 11.8% to his career average of 8%. He also led all Capitals skaters with a 1047 PDO, indicating his on ice luck should regress.

The one area that should benefit from all this firepower, is the goaltending. So much so that I sheepishly picked Logan Thompson for the Hart trophy (https://dobberhockey.com/2026/09/27/experts-panel-2026-27-season-predictions/), even though only three goalies have won the award since the year 2000: Connor Hellebuyck in 2025, Carey Price in 2015, and Jose Theodore in 2002. Thompson's 0.912% last season matched his career save percentage, which has consistently been between 0.908% and 0.915% for the last five seasons. He should be able to best his career high of 31 wins with the additional run support from this offense by committee.

*

Last Friday, NHL insiders revealed that the Capitals are amongst the American contenders that are included in Dylan Larkin's expanded trade list. Other organizations that Larkin is amenable to include the Colorado Avalanche, the Dallas Stars, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Minnesota Wild, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Florida Panthers. Other than the Minnesota, where he would be guaranteed top line and top power play deployment, I do not envision any other situation that would be more favourable than what he is receiving now in Detroit. On most of these other teams, he slots in as a second (or even third) line center where the quality of linemates is not an improvement on Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat. A spot on the number one power play unit is likely but not a guarantee on these contenders. You could take a risk on trading for Larkin from a fellow manager who has lost patience, but consider that moving to a better team may not necessarily bring the expected improvement in production for Dylan Larkin. 

Larkin started the season hot with 33 points in his first 31 games, and ended it on fire as well, with 12 points in 11 games after returning from a lower body injury in late March. In between, he went through a bit of a lull with 22 points in 32 games, which brought his season total to 0.91 points per game. A figure that was slightly elevated due to higher than usual numbers in a couple of metrics: secondary assists and shooting percentage. 

The Detroit Red Wings' first game is on Friday October 2^nd, and if Larkin fails to report and is suspended as a result (a la Connor Hellebuyck), it will be Andrew Copp that will be helicoptered into that plum spot centering Raymond and DeBrincat on the top line and the top power play. Copp should be readily available on the waiver wire even in the deepest of leagues. When Copp was given 18-19 minutes of ice time (back in 2020-21 and 2021-22), he averaged 0.71-0.74 points per game.

Player data from Frozen Tools. Preseason game summaries from ESPN.

Follow me on X/Twitter here: @KmanHockey_DH