The Contrarian: The Hype Alone Will Get You a Great Return
Thomas Drance
2015-01-11
The Contrarian breaks down the analysis of the recent David Perron trade.
There is the inevitable circumstance in fantasy sports when it comes to a player's impact after an NHL trade where one sees the glass half empty or half full. We have such a case with David Perron.
Greg Wyshynski, aka Puck Daddy on Yahoo! Sports, shares his opinion on Perron through his video blog, fantasy hockey pickups and drops (starts at about the 1:00 minute mark).
The summary is as he puts it "Sell high" and here are his reasons why.
A) "Everyone knows he's playing with Sidney Crosby for the time being"
B) "No one knows how long he'll remain there or how quickly Chris Kunitz is going to come back to Sid's wing if things don't click with Perron"
C) "The hype alone will get you a great return"
I will grant him that he needs to get his message across fast because the video is about two minutes in length and he talks about a few other players too but are those arguments strong enough.
Yes, everyone knows that he's currently playing with Crosby and nothing has been cemented that he will remain on his line. So does that not mean that your fellow fantasy owners will be cautious if trading for Perron?
Their argument will be exactly what is written in point b) that Kunitz will return to the Crosby line implying that Perron won't be there.
Then there is that great statement about 'the hype' and how it will factor positively in securing a great windfall in a trade. Sure there will be more interest in Perron now than when he was with Edmonton but that hardly means that people will be going nuts to get him or even to get rid of him as the case may be.
From ESPN's Sean Allen article of January 5th, 2015 "Perron's fantasy stock on the rise", he initially tries to compare Perron to Jonathan Cheechoo after the Joe Thornton trade. "It was an extreme example of fantasy stardom-by-association and a stark reminder that trades can make anyone in the league suddenly relevant."
Allen also notes that, "Perron is talented enough to be a mainstay beside either Crosby or Malkin, even after the team is back to a full slate of healthy wingers" and "He is easily ahead of all other Pens wingers based on talent except, for Chris Kunitz and Patric Hornqvist." On the downside he does indicate that Perron will likely not be on the number one power play unit.
He then proceeds with his projections and comes to evaluate that he is worthy of being traded for anyone outside of ESPN's top 100 rankings. They currently rate Perron 144th. By the way, Dobber has Perron ranked 140th in his Top 300 Keeper League Players.
Hypothetically, who are the best rated players you would be able to get as they see it? Jori Lehtera, Semyon Varlamov, Johan Franzen, Tyler Toffoli, Steve Downie, Ondrej Palat, Chris Krieder, Jonathan Bernier, Alex Galchenyuk and Joe Thornton.
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