Wild West: Goalie Gripes

Doran Libin

2015-01-12

KariLehtonen

 

Three of the most challenging goaltending situations in the Western Conference.

 

Goalies, much like the stereotypical Russian NHLer, can be quite the enigmas. The wild ride that Braden Holtby has been on over the last two and a half seasons is symbolic of this. In 2012 Holtby took over the starting job in Washington with a .920 save percentage in 35 starts. Last season Holtby lost the starting job for much of December and looked completely lost until March. There were rumours of a giant brain bug name Olaf Kolzig doing a number on his game and in turn his confidence. This year with the arrival of Barry Trotz and Mitch Korn in Washington Holtby appears to have found his game. Not all the variability in a goalie's game can be explained so easily. Often it is just a baffling turn of events resulting in a giant shift from season to season or within a season.

 

Kari Lehtonen

 

This season started well for Kari Lehtonen with wins in five of his first six starts but it quickly became a disaster. Lehtonen posted a .905 save percentage in his first 20 games, a full point below the league average. At the more than 30 shots per game Dallas allowed during that stretch that equates to an extra goal allowed every three games. During those 20 games Dallas allowed almost six shots per game from high percentage shooting areas. Lehtonen stopped 75% of those shots, meaning that Dallas' opponents were scoring three goals every two games on those shots alone. The high number of shots in dangerous areas is not unusual for Lehtonen playing behind the porous Dallas defense but the low save percentage is. A 75% save percentage in the high percentage shooting areas is five to six points lower than Lehtonen has had in any of the last four seasons.

 

Dallas has seen its fortunes begin to turn around since the middle of December as Dallas won eight of nine from December 13 to January 3. In the 11 games Lehtonen appeared in around that time he posted a 92.36% save percentage, almost a point above the league average. The Dallas defense also improved markedly cutting their shots against per 60 minutes to 27.7. They also allowed a shot less per game in high shooting percentage areas with Lehtonen stopping close to 84% of those shots. Further evidence of Lehtonen's improved play is that he won nine of 11 with six of those 11 games being quality starts. To put this in perspective Lehtonen has quality starts in 16 of 34 games, 11 of those quality starts have come in 17 games, the six at the beginning of the year and the recent 11 game stretch. Basically Lehtonen's season has been a roller coaster with two big rises on either side of a massive drop.

 

Lehtonen has not traditionally been a goalie prone to long spells of sub-par goaltending. For the eight years of his career for which hockey-reference.com has calculated quality start percentages Lehtonen has a quality start in 57% of his starts. There is also reason to believe that with Dallas' recent trend of allowing significantly fewer shots Lehtonen will continue to post better numbers. The positive here is that it really does not matter how poorly Lehtonen plays because there is no challenger in Dallas. The alternatives, Anders Lindback and Jussi Rynnas, are both train wrecks and are better suited for the AHL and probably Europe. As it is the Stars will give Lehtonen every opportunity to resuscitate this drowning victim of a season.

 

Minnesota

 

It is amazing how goaltending can change the perception of a team. Minnesota allows the second fewest shots per 60 minutes played. Yet they have allowed the seventh most goals per 60 minutes played. This has translated into an 89.4% save percentage, or the second lowest on-ice save percentage in the league. The Wild have allowed 112 goals on 1052 shots, at a league average save percentage that would be closer to 90 goals against, putting them amongst the top five defenses in the league. Even with their struggling offense that would give the Wild a +15 goal differential, ranking them with Detroit, Los Angeles and Montreal. That amounts to the difference between the Wild being last in the Central and a playoff team.

 

A lot has been made of the inability of the Wild to score but they rank around the middle of the league in goals. The real failings of this team have to be placed at the feet of the team's goalies. Both Niklas Backstrom and Darcy Kuemper have save percentages at or under 90%. That is more than a point and a half below the league average. Both have had long stretches this season with a save percentage under 90%. Kuemper has only had 12 quality starts in 28 games, while Backstrom has a measly three quality starts for the season. In short neither goalie is giving this Wild team much of a chance to win many games. With Harding struggling to even get healthy enough to draw an NHL start this year the Wild appear to be sinking with their leaky goaltending.

 

There is an opportunity here for poolies as there have recently been rumours that the Wild are interested in acquiring a goalie. Sportsnet recently reported on Jonas Enroth rumours while Cam Ward rumours have also been circulating for more than a month. Any goalie that finds himself in Minnesota would have an opportunity to put up some big numbers. Enroth's save percentage is only a half point better than Kuemper's but he faces twice as many shots in high percentage areas and about seven more shots per game overall. Ward on the other hand has a save percentage a point higher than Kuemper. Ward seems like the least likely option as the Wild claim to still have confidence in Kuemper's upside and Ward would be a roadblock for Kuemper. If the Wild acquire a goalie it will probably be a short term solution, namely a pending free agent or someone with a year left on his deal.

 

Devan Dubnyk

 

Mike Smith's brilliant personification of 'Smelly Cat' this year has given Devan Dubnyk the chance to resurrect his career. A career that looked beyond dead after Barry Trotz sent him and his bad habits packing from Nashville after only playing two games. This was after he appeared to be a quasi-starter for three years in Edmonton when he had quality starts 54% of the time. Then Dubnyk dropped off a cliff last year resulting in the aforementioned loud Barry Trotz crash. He may have landed in the perfect place though as Sean Burke has developed a reputation for his work rebuilding damaged goalies.

 

Dubnyk's three quality years suggest that there is reason to believe that he is capable of maintaining these numbers. No one should be shocked that the Edmonton defense these last two years may be ruining goalies. Dubnyk's turn around this year is in keeping with his Edmonton years as his .918 save percentage is the average for those seasons. While none of those seasons in Edmonton were behind anything even approaching a quality defense, this year is not all that different as the team in front of Dubnyk is giving up almost 33 shots per 60 minutes played. That being the case this is an unusually bad Coyotes team, not what the world has come to expect from a Dave Tippett coached team. With the respective track records of Tippett and Burke, Dubnyk's resurgence seems likely to last.

 

The down side of Dubnyk being in Arizona is that Mike Smith has a huge contract on a team with little money. That means Mike Smith will not be easily unseated even as he struggles to keep his save percentage above 88%. That combination is going to make it really tough for Dubnyk to get a regular hold on the starting job in Arizona. Keep an eye on the ownership situation though as newly approved owner Andrew Barroway may loosen the purse strings allowing for a Mike Smith buy out or a salary eating Smith trade. Dubnyk does only have a one year contract so he is in no way tied long term to Arizona but there are not a lot of openings for starters around the league. 

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