January 13, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-01-13

Hedman and Tyler Johnson injured, Doughty and Holtby are serious buys, Carlson is a sell and more…

We released the 2015 Mid-Season Fantasy Guide yesterday. It is loaded with goodies to help you win your pool. If you haven't picked it up yet, I highly recommend doing so. Only $9.99.

Gruesome game all around for the Tampa Bay Lightning getting pasted 7-3 by the Flyers, in a game where they lost both Victor Hedman and Tyler Johnson to injury. Both are day-to-day with lower-body injuries and John Cooper was not optimistic about them playing tonight.

That's just brutal all around. There's really no replacing either guy in your lineup. I mean, no one off the waiver wire is replicating point-per-game scoring at the forward position and near point-per-game scoring from the blue line. The best you'll get is cheap knock offs.

For in house replacements, you are probably looking at Valtteri Filppula to replace Johnson, if he's available, which odds are he isn't. For Hedman, look no further than Anton Stralman who registered a couple of assists last night.

Stralman is out of contention for the Jeff Schultz Memorial Trophy, not officially mind you, but with 20 points through 44 games it would take catastrophe for him to fail to reach the 30 points he needs to officially lose eligibility. More on that made up trophy later though.

Stralman was already grabbing minutes on the top power play unit from Hedman before this injury. Now this injury gives him a chance to take control of those minutes. I still don't think Stralman can fend off a healthy Hedman but that health variable could be what helps shoot Stralman up to 35 or so points and delay the inevitable 60-point season for Hedman.

As for Johnson, where this gets really dicey is that the Lightning had started experimenting with Steven Stamkos skating with Johnson and the rest of the triplets on the top power play. I'd been waiting all year for this experiment. They tried it and got a first period power-play goal for Stamkos before losing Johnson. That power play could have torched the league, instead we'll be left waiting.

After the injury Stamkos got to skate with Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat at even strength. This could go one of two ways. It either helps Stamkos or hurts Kucherov and Palat. The Lightning have an excellent history of filling in the blanks when injuries occur so you might want to trust the system but Johnson's explosiveness was a big reason they survived last season's injuries. I'm leaning towards this injury causing more harm for Kucherov and Palat than help for Stamkos because now the whole lineup becomes less explosive with everything more concentrated on one line.

Evgeni Nabokov was dreadful getting yanked early in the second after four goals on 13 shots. Ben Bishop got called into action and wasn't much better allowing three goals on 12 shots. You can certainly blame the full team effort. At one point the Lightning were down 7-1 getting outshot 22-7. They bridged the gap somewhat in the third period but that was with the game WELL out of hand. But this isn't just a one-game aberration for Nabokov. He's been getting sliced and diced all year. If the Lightning care about being able to rest Bishop they'll need to call up Andrei Vasilevsky or make a move for an NHL calibre backup.

By the way, Cedric Paquette is on a three-game assist streak snagging some solid minutes on the third line. What makes me think I can't trust him is the complete lack of power play time. He's more of an Andrew Cogliano type skating big minutes as a penalty killer and at evens but not a threat to score with consistency.

Rob Zepp was in goal for the Flyers with Steve Mason out for the next couple of weeks. He didn't really have to do much for the win last night and is now two for two as an NHL starter despite having allowed three goals in each of his career starts. Can't say I like his odds if that continues but Zepp has some nice numbers in the AHL so I'm not writing him off. Also, the Flyers' other goalies are Ray Emery and Steve Mason. "Isn't in fact a scarecrow," might be all it takes to be an upgrade at that position.

Mark Streit was the Flyers' top performer with three points on the night. Dude is on fire with 18 points in 20 games since the start of December to vault himself into a tie for fifth in defenseman scoring with John Carlson. It's so boring to talk about him though because we know he's good. He's been a top defenseman for years rinsing and repeating 45-point (or better) seasons for what feels like a decade now.

No points for John Carlson, the man tied with Streit for points this season but he has had one heck of a season. It's not one that I really trust though so I'd push for you to sell high. The big reason I don't think Carlson can continue at this near 60-point pace, aside from the fact he's never even scored 40 in a season, is the fact that he doesn't see top power play minutes. He does have seven power-play points so far, which is greater for a secondary guy but not necessarily reliable.

Where I really see issues is with Carlson's even-strength scoring. He has 25 points at evens so far with an on-ice shooting percentage of 9.76%, which is on the high side but not outside the realm of sustainability. Where things get tricky is that Carlson has been on the ice for 32 goals at evens. With points on 25 of those, he has recorded points on 78% of the goals he's been on the ice for, which seems extraordinarily high simply if considering the logic that there are five players on the ice at any given time but only a maximum of three points given out on any goal.

Seems as though he's getting more than his fair share of points on the goals that are already coming at an above-average rate. That's a double-whammy of overproduction that just begs for regression. He's had an amazing season and is playing well but I'd still sell like crazy. Only in one-year leagues though. We could see Carlson make a legitimate leap once Mike Green leaves this summer, (assuming he does.)

Last night's Capitals-Avalanche game was more about a contest between two of the league's hottest goalies.

Semyon Varlamov saw the end of a three-game winning streak (his longest of the season) but played exceptionally well once again. Varlamov has quietly boosted his save percentage back above 0.920 as he attempts to carry the Avalanche to mediocrity. Don't scoff! Mediocrity is a real feat for this otherwise crappy team.

Meanwhile, Braden Holtby continues to gain steam in his bounce-back season. He's building towards one of those fantasy season bending second half runs like we've seen from Sergei Bobrovsky the past couple of years. Going out on a limb here, Holtby is going to be one of the five best goalies to own from here on out. Actually, that's not even going out on a limb. By Wins, Goals-Against Average and Save Percentage he's been the sixth best goalie so far. Leaping into the top five isn't a stretch at all, especially not with the ever combustible Marc-Andre Fleury ahead of him. That being said, I wouldn't have the balls to move Fleury for Holtby as a Fleury owner.

It should be mentioned that after a poor December the Capitals' power play has gotten things rolling again in 2015. Alexander Ovechkin scored the game-winner on the power play last night.

Now this is more like what I expected to see from the Leafs under Peter Horachek. What a tight affair that was between the Kings and Leafs last night with a mere 39 SOG total between the two teams.

Kudos to the Leafs for pushing the defending champs like that. They really carried the play for extended stretches and easily could have won the game if not for some superb stops by Martin Jones who didn't have to make a lot of saves (19) for his seventh career shutout but the ones he made were crucial.

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It will be interesting to see if the Leafs play more games like this the rest of the way. I don't think it's in their DNA. Instead I think the changes will be more subtle. More 3-2 games than 4-3 games. That sort of deal, which over time will drop the Leafs' scoring totals both for and against.

I still really like seeing Daniel Winnik up with Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel. He wasn't on that line in the third period as the Leafs were really pushing for the goal but if Winnik can be 80% of what James van Riemsdyk was then he is a fit on that line because it allows the second line to get the full 100% of value that JVR offers. Just a good way to divvy up the talent and get the most out of your lines.

Leo Komarov left this one after crashing into the boards hard. Officially an upper-body injury but it looks like shoulder.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11	CAR	vs	PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11	MTL	vs	CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11	BUF	vs	OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11	TOR	vs	BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11	NYI	vs	PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11	MIN	vs	L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11	STL	vs	T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11	WPG	vs	UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11	COL	vs	SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11	ANA	vs	VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11	S.J	vs	CBJ