January 17, 2015
steve laidlaw
2015-01-17
Drafting this weekend? Pick up the Midseason Guide HERE…
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Oh my goodness, Kyle Okposo! The Penguins were on their way to a big divisional win and then, BAM! Okposo runs up the score on them with three third-period goals to go on top of the one he'd scored earlier. Was there some memo sent out by the league that we need more four-goal outings? Because this is the third in the past couple of weeks.
What's crazy is that even after that big night, Okposo is still shooting below his career average of 10.2% so he might have more to offer yet.
Josh Bailey and John Tavares both hit the jackpot with three assists apiece on Okposo's big night. For Tavares this continues his 2015 outburst with 10 points in seven games since the calendar flipped. Bailey makes for a nice short-term add but we know that LW spot on the top line is in constant flux so don't treat him as reliable.
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When I left the Penguins-Islanders game I thought my lead in was going to be Sidney Crosby's big night with two goals and an assist but then Okposo goes off and Crosby gets bumped. He has quietly cranked it up a notch in 2015 with 12 points in six games. This is why he's always the pick to win the Art Ross. He can turn it on like nobody else. Bet you didn't realize that Crosby had popped into a tie for second with teammate Evgeni Malkin, just two back of Jakub Voracek for the league lead.
One thing is certain, this is shaping up to be one hell of a scoring race. The top nine scorers are all between 47 and 52 points. The only thing that's disappointing is that it took a decline from some of our best scorers to create this race. I mean, if we even had one player on pace to clear 100 points then this race probably isn't exciting but because we've lowered the ceiling we can have more interesting race. I dunno if I'm happy settling for "mediocrity."
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Shutout win for Ryan Miller and the Canucks in Dan Hamhuis' first game back after missing 22 games. I don't necessarily want to draw a link there but it's worth discussing. Like we did with Derek Stepan yesterday, let's take a look at Hamhuis' WOWY (With or With You) numbers:
Canucks with Hamhuis: 13-6-1 – 2.80 goals for per game – 2.80 goals against per game
Canucks without Hamhuis: 11-9-2 – 2.72 goals for per game – 2.32 goals against per game
Now that's some wonkiness right there. The Canucks goal differential through the first 20 games was that of a .500 team but they played well above that. Over the next 22 games their defense picked while their offense remained about the same but the team played .500 hockey.
You might jump on Hamhuis because of the team's improved goal differential without him but Hamhuis actually suffered from some bad luck early on with a PDO of just 955. Where he was really hindered was some unfortunate goaltending while he was on the ice with Canuck goaltenders stopping just 89.1% of shots with him out there. Look for Hamhuis' luck to change and the Canucks to continue playing their stingier defense with him back in the lineup.
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Since we mentioned Stepan above it should be pointed out that he was back in the lineup for the Rangers last night, assisting on both New York goals. I won't reiterate yesterday's discussion of his importance to the Rangers but I'll summarize that Stepan is a vital part of their offensive attack. I know as a Martin St. Louis owner, I am not happy when Stepan is absent.
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So James Neal misses some time with injury (as he is wont to do, Band-Aid Boy alert!) and comes back to find himself on line two with Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson.
Not a death sentence!
He has four points in two games on this line and remains on the "top power play unit." I say that in quotations because the Predators are trending towards the Boston Bruins/St. Louis Blues model of giving equal time to their two respective power plays. That hurts the top unit guys like Neal, Shea Weber and Roman Josi but isn't a killer. The ultimate cost is like a minute per night depending on the coach's whims.
The great news is that it allows for a lot of players to score. That's how you get a team where you can have seven to 10 fantasy relevant individuals and given the roll that Wilson and Fisher have been on in the second quarter of the season, I'd say Nashville is trending into that range.
It does make it tough to have super-duper scorers on your team though. Vladimir Tarasenko is an exception in St. Louis but on most teams splitting time equally in the top six means settling for modesty. It's why Neal is on pace for just 56 points. And why Filip Forsberg, while on pace for 75 will probably finish much closer to 60.
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Hutchinson's superhuman goaltending is a big part of that. I'm not quite ready to do my annual Autobots/Decepticons piece where I rate the breakout goalies who appeared to pop up out of nowhere on whether or not they can be trusted long term but you can rest assured I'll have a full opinion on Hutchinson when the time comes. Right now I'm leaning towards this being one of those Ben Bishop situations where the guy has one brilliant year but then turns out to be just kind of average the following year. I think that makes him an Autobot but again, I'm not making my final call yet.
Mathieu Perreault got knocked from last night’s contest after a brutal cross-check from Dan Carcillo. No word on the severity but apparently his arm (where he took the cross-check) was not in a sling so that’s promising.
Evander Kane jumped onto the second line with Perreault out but it was Tobias Enstrom who snagged the top power play minutes. I’ve been waiting for Enstrom to grab that top unit spot from Perreault but didn’t want it to happen like this. Hopefully it’s all good for Perreault. We need his sell-high window to remain open.
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Teuvo Teravainen scored his first NHL goal last night. Won't be anywhere near his last but it wouldn't shock me if it was his last this season. Even skating on an intriguing third line with Andrew Shaw and Patrick Sharp I just don't see enough of an opportunity for Teravainen to consistently produce.
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Cory Schneider left last night’s after getting run by Matt Beleskey. Upper-body injury but it doesn’t sound like he’ll miss any more time. Probably a good thing he avoided the Anaheim buzzsaw anyhow.
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Brad Marchand received a two-game suspension for slew-footing Derick Brassard the other night. He'll be unavailable until next Wednesday's game against the Avalanche.
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Victor Hedman was back at practice yesterday. Hoping to see him back tonight.
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Joey MacDonald has been called up by the Canadiens with Carey Price day-to-day. I'd be looking for another start from Dustin Tokarski this weekend.
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The Nashville Predators have assigned top prospect Kevin Fiala to the AHL, calling him over from Sweden where he's been productive the past couple of seasons. Of course, since he's a Predators prospect Fiala's recall doesn't get nearly the hype as William Nylander's did for the Leafs but it's a similar move.
Teams have been bringing their prospects over to play in the AHL to adjust to the North American game for years but this is the first time I can recall teams making these moves during mid-season. Did the Leafs and Preds see something they didn't like at the World Juniors that made them lose trust with the player development taking place in Sweden? Or did they see something that suggested to them that these players could make an impact for the team at some point this season? Or is this just a coincidence?
Probably just a coincidence but it makes you wonder.
I didn't love what I saw from Fiala at the World Juniors but he did finish up with four goals in six games so clearly he flashed some productivity. Read more on Fiala over at DobberProspects.
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If you're looking for more prospect info, check out Craig Button's Top 30 NHL Affiliated Prospects. I have Christian Dvorak in one of my leagues and his spot on this list has spurned some heavy trade interest of late. Just another way for you to use big media coverage to hype up a prospect's value in trade talks.
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Nice piece from The Players Tribune where Logan Couture talks some of the best centermen in the game.
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Watch them all, Okposo's four goals:
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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.