The Contrarian – Buy low on impotent Leafs

Thomas Drance

2015-01-18

AA Maple Leafs

Why it’s the perfect time to target Maple Leafs players in fantasy.

No one ever wants to be on a sinking ship and with what has occurred even before Randy Carlyle was relieved of his duties as coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, some are ready to jump.

Jeff O'Neill and Jamie McLennan in their latest Tim HortonsThat's Hockey video, "Is it time for the Maple Leafs to blow it up?", express exactly that very idea.

Their host Gino Reda asks if the Leafs should be patient and build through the draft or accelerate the process. While McLennan would go at it in a methodical and measured approach, O'Neill is ready to rip the Band-Aid off quickly.

Says O'Neill, "I don't believe that this core players that go to the rink every day, they're not going to be any better in ten games from now and they're not going to be better next year in training camp so you can't give them the benefit of the doubt and say 'We're going to play it out. We're going to reset.' Maybe add to this group of players and next year they're going to come to camp and they're all going to get it" and "You have to look at the core players like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, those are the players that might fetch something back".

McLennan cautions about the speed of the dismantle, "Bigger picture is trades like that, if you believe you're going to pull the plug and move forward, you've got to start that process and start the conversations underneath and maybe it's something at the draft or in the offseason you move."

There are three guys that they consider untouchable, goaltender Johnathan Bernier, Morgan Reilly and James van Riemsdyk.

From The Globe and Mail's James Mirtle, "Mirtle: With playoff chances slipping, Leafs season is about what's next" he suggests "[Peter Horachek] doesn't have the horses", "[The] Leafs haven't been scoring for a while" and "Three wins and 27 goals scored in 13 games. So it's not the system change".

He continues about the losses and the types of losses under Carlyle's style, "Yes, maybe the Leafs can be a slightly higher scoring team under Carlyle. Maybe that's a fact. But another fact is they only had the eighth most even strength goals in his 188 games as coach, and their goal differential was still one of the worst leaguewide despite solid goaltending. Those goals came at a cost, and we know for a certainty – after nearly three years – what that was and what that topped out as. It wasn't very good."

She adds, "This is not progress. This is regression" but she is not a proponent of a complete rebuild.

"[Blowing] up the whole mess and starting over, as many are advocating, would be too reactionary and reckless. Further, ditching the unwanted pieces is easier said then done because assets Shanahan would probably like to retain are those which would draw the most trade interest – and then have to be replaced, so you're going 'round in circles" she notes.

She lists van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Rielly, Franson, Bernier and Kessel as assets the Leafs should retain and build around.

In conclusion she writes, "Ultimately, who coaches this team next season is almost inconsequential. It's the who-will-be-here-to-coach that's the crux of the thing."

So why would you want to add any Leafs to your fantasy rosters with all this negativity hanging around them?

Frist, short term, if they get moved to other teams it is likely because other teams want their scoring abilities regardless of any defensive liabilities. A guy like Joffrey Lupul would fit under this category. So would Kessel.

Second, long term, if they stay on the team then management has to build around what they've got. I don't believe that Shanahan is the type of guy who will try to put a square peg into a round hole. Sure, Horachek is doing similar things as Carlyle but he is also an interim coach. They will get a coach that fits with the players that they have on their roster.

Lastly, from San Jose's Coach Todd McLellan, as reported by Lance Hornby in the Toronto Sun "Maple Leafs lose third straight in California, falling against Sharks" , "We can't get confused as to what Toronto is. They are a very dynamic team, so let's not get caught up in the numbers."

In addition he's quoted as saying:

"I would expect them to break out eventually, I just hope it's 36 hours from now and not tonight. They've tightened things up defensively, they haven't allowed as many shots [and] their penalty kill is strong."

"They were scoring at a good clip, they were very good off the rush and were dynamic around the net. That's not going to go away forever."

Everyone, especially their fans, are down on the Leafs. They have proven that they can

score in the past. Now is the time to buy.