January 20, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-01-20

Ortio looking good, buy Eric Staal, Boedker hurt and more…

I opened up a mailbag yesterday in the forum to answer your fantasy hockey questions. You can check it out here. I'll keep the thread open and will keep taking questions throughout today if you have any pressing needs.

One of the more intriguing questions was about the importance of acquiring players who will be most active during the head-to-head playoffs. I think it's definitely important but as important is identifying players who should be heating up in the second half. Ideally, you can find both but I'd much rather find the guy due for some scoring, especially when looking at depth players. With stars, you can focus more on the schedule since they should produce no matter what.

We've got a breakdown of the top teams to look at in the Mid-Season Guide. If you want something more interactive, give former DobberHockey writer, Bob Fisher's, Same Night Tool a try.

By the way, the Mid-Season Guide has been out for a week now. If you haven't picked it up yet, quit doddling. It's packed with everything you need for your post-All-Star push.

God bless the Islanders. They are second in scoring and 21^st in goals allowed so you know you are getting some fantasy productivity out of their games. What's great is that they've managed to be so high event while remaining gloriously competitive. They are now tops in the league in wins, third in points and tops in the Eastern Conference.

We'll see how well this all goes for them come playoff time. The advanced stats don't necessarily love the Islanders as they rank outside the top-10 in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentage but they are in the top-10 in shots-for percentage. Also, they pass the eye test if that's meaningful to you. And if you recall how well they pushed the Penguins a couple of years ago in Round One despite being absent many contributors to this year's team you know they have a core that can play "playoff hockey."

I won't be putting any money on them to win anything beyond a round or two come playoff time. I just like other teams a lot more. Playoffs hardly matter right now anyhow. I like how productive these guys are for fantasy purposes and that's good enough for me.

Nikolai Kulemin led the way for the Islanders in the matinee game scoring two goals and adding an assist. He did it in just 10:35 of ice time. He has already matched last season's output of 20, in 34 fewer games. What's crazy is that not one of Kulemin's points has come on the power play, not that he's ever scored a ton of points that way. He may not be relevant in most pools but Kulemin has enjoyed quite the bounce back season. Sure feels like 29 teams whiffed passing on him in free agency.

Kulemin has quietly put up five goals and six points in the last five games but this is not a hot streak I think will continue.

John Tavares, on the other hand, is definitely on a hot streak that can continue. Another two-point effort gives him 13 points in nine games in 2015. All of those points have come in six multi-point efforts, making him a tremendous boom/bust option, not that you'd ever dare sit him.

Another thing to love about the Islanders is how they play the body. For a positive possession team they don't hold back from the physical game. They rank third in hits and have some of the biggest hitters in all of fantasy hockey on the roster.

Take yesterday for example where they got 10 hits from Cal Clutterbuck, nine from Matt Martin, eight from Travis Hamonic and seven from Brian Strait. Just a bunch of hard-asses.

Josh Bailey scored a goal as he continues to enjoy his dalliance on the top line. We'll see how long this lasts.

Sergei Bobrovsky put an end to the losing streak with last night's victory. Unfortunately, that was the last time he'll see Minnesota this season barring a playoff miracle. He went 2-0-0 with just two goals allowed against the Wild.

James Wisniewski had a great night with three points. He hasn't been quite as consistent as last season but he's only missed three games (a minor miracle considering what a Band-Aid Boy he is) and has just 11 power-play points so far after putting up an enormous 28 last season. A little more juice from the power play and he'll grasp another 50-point season. That Band-Aid Boy status it to fearsome for me to touch though.

Cam Atkinson has just one point in his last 13 games. He's Jeff Skinner without the Calder or the concussions but all of the disappointment. Does anyone else have that much skill, skate that many minutes and fire that many shots without producing? I wish those two would just go off to some out-of-the-way Tim Horton's and have their donut party where they won't bother anyone.

That Joni Ortio character sure is looking like a keeper. I mean, he beasted last night against the Kings stopping 33 of 34 shots for a key overtime win. He is now 4-0-0 with some gaudy stats. Small sample size for sure, but Ortio fits the prototype of today's successful goaltender – tall, lanky, athletic, strong reflexes, Finnish – he has it all.

This is based on way too few viewings but Ortio is the Flames' best goaltender. I say that because of those strong traits mentioned above and because I have zero trust in the consistency of Jonas Hiller and Karri Ramo. Why not Ortio?

Exciting finish to last night's game with Dennis Wideman ripping the winner off the goal camera so hard that everyone just assumed it hit the crossbar. Upon further review it was, in fact, a goal, securing a big extra point that amounts to the difference between the Kings and Flames in the standings.

Sean Monahan has a nice three-game goal streak on the go. He took a massive hit from Robyn Regehr in the first and left briefly but returned and seemed fine skating 21:08, tops among all Flame forwards.

I was looking forward to last night's Flames-Kings contest because of the matchup between what I think are the top two contenders for the Norris Trophy – Drew Doughty and Mark Giordano. I didn't get nearly enough of a chance to focus on Giordano with how much time the Kings spent in the Flames' end but I wasn't all that impressed with Doughty. He made a lot of mistakes, which are bound to happen when you've got so much puck on your stick but still, he could have cost the team with some bad turnovers in his own end and some selfish penalties.

Still, Doughty managed a few brilliant rushes on goal that reminded you why he's the best in the game today. No points though because of that damned Ortio.

Sounds like both Justin Braun and Tommy Wingels will miss some time for the Sharks after getting hurt in last night's contest.

Matt Carle will miss 6-8 weeks following abdominal surgery. This is a big hit for the Lightning as Carle was playing some big, tough minutes and they've already lost Radko Gudas and have been without Viktor Hedman at times.

The Lightning have found adequate replacements internally with Nikita Nesterov and Mark Barberio stepping up lately but they are no replacement for Carle's steadiness. I'd suggest this rushes a trade into fruition but that's not really Steve Yzerman's style. What I do know is that this will hurt the Lightning's top-rated attack because Carle is such a fluid puck-mover that it makes life easy on the forwards.

Carle's absence will also hurt Ben Bishop who had been putting together a nice run in the New Year with wins and two goals or less allowed in five of six starts.

Oh drat, Mikkel Boedker is week-to-week with a lower-body injury. I don't think it's overreacting to say that this hurts everyone in the Coyote lineup as he's their top goal-scorer. Antoine Vermette and Shane Doan are hit hardest as his most frequent linemates.

Hard to say who this helps as there's no clear replacement. I'd love to say that the ghost of Martin Erat could benefit but he vanished from the lineup entirely last game as a healthy scratch. Doan is capable of switching wings so maybe he grabs time on the left side and Tobias Rieder hangs onto the top line spot he skated in last game with Doan shifting down a line.

After a brief dalliance to replace James Neal, Viktor Stalberg is headed back down to the minors. Love how the Predators have no shame in making him ride the bus despite the big contract.

Our pal, Anatoliy Metter, has a few waiver wire goalies worth picking up.

Daniel Carcillo has been suspended six games for that cross-check on Mathieu Perreault. Because of the length, his appeal can go to an independent arbitrator but given his disciplinary history I can't see how this works out for him.

Rarely see this from Bob McKenzie in written form but he goes deep on the complexity of the Ryan O'Reilly situation in Colorado.

If you care about such things, Boston will host Montreal in next year's Winter Classic.

Check out Austin Wallace’s fresh ramblings over at Dobber Prospects.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.