Frozenpool Forensics: Eric Staal

steve laidlaw

2015-01-30

EricStaal

The always hot debate, is Eric Staal a second-half player?

It is often said (even by Dobber in his Jan. 20^th Rumblings) that Eric Staal is a "second-half performer." What better time to evaluate the validity of this statement than now, when Staal has played exactly 41 games? (Technically more than half of Carolina's season is over since he has missed five games this season)

2014-15: 1st 2 quarters: 25 points in 36 games (0.69 pace)

2013-14: 33 points in 40 games (0.83 pace); 25 points in 36 games (0.69 pace)

2012-13 (the shortened 48 game season): 28 points in 22 games (1.27 pace); 21 points in 23 games (0.91 pace)

2011-12: 28 points in 42 games (0.67 pace); 42 points in 40 games (1.05 pace)

2010-11: 40 points in 40 games (1.00 pace); 36 points in 41 games (0.88 pace)

Only once has his pace increased in the last half of the season.

forensics staal

This year, Eric did pretty solid in October and November, but dropped pretty drastically to 0.6 in December. 11-12 is the only season where we also see this December drop. Next, in 13-14, he essentially maintained 0.8 from January forward. In 11-12, it seems to be around 0.7-0.75 in the same stretch. And well, 10-11 isn't really that useful since he's basically hitting the 1.0-mark the entire season. In terms of overall similarity, 14-15 actually looks pretty similar thus far to 11-12, the main difference being the super hot start in 11-12 (although the November drop was severe enough to counterbalance it). This alikeness makes me want to hone in to 11-12 to see if I can draw any possible conclusions.

His ES line-mates this year vs 11-12:

2014-15: 2011-12:

Freq	Line Combination
29%	LINDHOLM,E – STAAL,E – TLUSTY,J
27.5%	LINDHOLM,E – STAAL,E – STAAL,J
19.3%	SEMIN,A – STAAL,E – TLUSTY,J
12.6%	GERBE,N – STAAL,E – TERRY,C
11.5%	SKINNER,J – STAAL,E – TLUSTY,J

Freq	Line Combination
28.6%	RUUTU,T – STAAL,E – TLUSTY,J
25.5%	LAROSE,C – STAAL,E – TLUSTY,J
24.3%	RUUTU,T – SKINNER,J – STAAL,E
11.2%	LAROSE,C – SKINNER,J – STAAL,E
10.4%	SAMSON,J – STAAL,E – TLUSTY,J

Tuomo Ruutu hit 34 in 72 that year. Tlusty had 36 in 79. Chad LaRose had 32 in 67. All pretty pedestrian point totals, which supports that Staal can put up solid totals without quality teammates. This adds credibility to a repeat of a second half this year similar to the one from 11-12.

This season, Staal has had 11 of his 25 so far from the PP. In 10-11, he had 10 of his 28 from the PP, and 13 PPP off his next 40 in the second half. Not only are the PP totals similar so far to 10-11, Staal was not overly reliant on the PP in the second half that year, which conveys that he does not require a hot PP to carry him into PPG candidacy. His player usage charts from War On Ice indicate that he is getting 4% more OZ starts this year than 11-12, while maintaining similar Relative Corsi and playing against similar caliber of opposition. In fact, Eric shot 8.35% that year, while he is only shooting 5.81% now, which indicates that he could be due for some goals in the foreseeable future.

(To show that SH% does viscerally impact results, Eric's SH% in his very productive shortened season was 12.78%, an almost full 2% higher than his second highest SH% recorded in 09-10 when he recorded 75 points.)

To this point, I have simply explained and summarized observations. I have not made any recommendations or hard projections into Eric's performance for the rest of the season. I will now attempt to forecast Eric's second half. While I do believe that Eric is likely to improve given a severely low SH%, I do not think the adjustment will be as drastic as it was in 2011-12. While 11-12 seems very similar to this season in a lot of regards, it remains the only season where the pace in the second half is higher than the pace in the first half. While Eric's age is not an obvious issue, his player usage chart indicates that he had to get around 63% OZ starts last year to put up the points he did. He is currently receiving around 54%. To me, this suggests that he is declining, and a simple look over his last 10 seasons supports that he has been gradually trending downward. Ever since that aberration of a 100 point season in 05-06, Staal has dwindled from a consistent 0.95 player, to a 0.85 player, to the 0.77 from last season. (Remember, Eric's SH% was 12.78 in 12-13, so I am removing that outlier season from this trend). This season could very well be the season where we see a 0.70-0.75 Eric Staal. If that's the case, Eric would finish with approximately 59 points, meaning that he would need to put up 31 points in the remaining 36 games.

Overall, I don't think Eric's recent history qualify him as a true second half over-performer. I have a bearish outlook on Eric's season as a whole but the amount of points he needs to put up in Carolina's remaining games reflects the 0.8 pace he usually has moving forward from January. This 0.86 pace is close enough to the last few seasons where I feel comfortable using it, even though a 59 point total would give Eric his lowest point totals since his rookie season.

Jasper Lan
DobberHockey Columnist