Eastern Conference – Real or Imagined – Forwards (2014)

Eric Daoust

2014-12-09

PatriceBergeron

 

Buy, sell or hold these hot shooters in the Eastern Conference.

 

Shots on-goal are the most repeatable statistic in hockey. We have seen that players that shoot a lot tend to be very productive. This makes the ability to generate shots one of the most important factors in point production for forwards. When shooting percentage is added into the equation it becomes easier to judge the sustainability of a player's production. A hot streak is typically accompanied by a high-than-normal shooting percentage which levels off over time. On the flip side, a cold streak usually sees the percentage drop significantly but if the player is still getting shots it is only a matter of time before he snaps out of his funk.

 

For example Rick Nash is averaging close to 3.5 shots per game. If he finishes with a 20-percent shooting percentage he will score 57 goals. However, if he finishes the year at a more sustainable star's shooting percentage of 12 percent he will finish with 34 goals.

 

Note: This article focuses only on the rest of this season in points-only leagues.

 

*

 

Boston

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

PPTOI

TOI

Shots

Status

 
 

BERGERON,PATRICE

C

28

19

1:53

17.46

78

Buy

 

CAMPBELL,GREGORY

C

23

4

0:06

12.9

25

Waive

 

CARON,JORDAN

R

2

0

0:00

5.82

1

Waive

 

CUNNINGHAM,CRAIG

L

3

0

0:03

11.28

2

Waive

 

ERIKSSON,LOUI

L

28

14

1:56

17.58

51

Buy

 

FRASER,MATT

R

18

3

0:05

11.04

25

Waive

 

GAGNE,SIMON

L

23

4

0:02

11.16

27

Waive

 

GRIFFITH,SETH

C

20

7

1:52

14.1

26

Gamble

 

KELLY,CHRIS

C

26

7

0:06

15.24

37

Waive

 

KHOKHLACHEV,ALEX

C

3

0

0:57

7.98

1

Waive

 

KREJCI,DAVID

C

11

10

2:13

18.12

25

Stand

 

LINDBLAD,MATT

C

1

0

0:00

8.04

1

Waive

 

LUCIC,MILAN

L

28

13

1:54

16.56

43

Buy

 

MARCHAND,BRAD

C

25

16

1:26

16.26

59

Stand

 

PAILLE,DANIEL

L

28

6

0:03

11.64

26

Waive

 

PASTRNAK,DAVID

R

5

1

1:49

13.8

14

Gamble

 

ROBINS,BOBBY

C

3

0

0:00

7.56

0

Waive

 

SMITH,REILLY

R

28

14

1:57

15.42

54

Stand

 

SODERBERG,CARL

C

28

17

1:51

16.32

55

Buy

 

SPOONER,RYAN

C

5

0

1:05

10.68

6

Waive

 

 

Patrice Bergeron: Despite a rough star offensively for the Bruins Bergeron has maintained a very respectable point total. Still, with just five goals on 78 shots you have to think that he will have more success finding the back of the net down the stretch.

 

11.04

15

Waive

 

COLLINS,SEAN

C

2

0

0:06

8.52

1

Waive

 

CRACKNELL,ADAM

R

14

1

0:06

10.26

16

Waive

 

DANO,MARKO

C

8

2

0:41

11.7

14

Waive

 

FOLIGNO,NICK

L

25

23

3:02

18.84

52

Sell

 

GIBBONS,BRIAN

C

16

3

1:01

14.22

14

Waive

 

HARTNELL,SCOTT

L

26

16

3:12

17.94

81

Stand

 

JENNER,BOONE

C

15

9

2:25

19.08

42

Stand

 

JOHANSEN,RYAN

C

26

25

3:24

19.26

63

Stand

 

LETESTU,MARK

C

9

5

1:16

16.44

16

Stand

 

RYCHEL,KERBY

L

4

3

0:07

10.62

4

Stand

 

SKILLE,JACK

R

22

5

0:10

13.02

51

Waive

 

TROPP,COREY

R

14

1

0:04

7.62

3

Waive

 

TYRELL,DANA

C

3

0

0:00

6.96

1

Waive

 

WENNBERG,ALEXANDER

C

21

3

1:35

14.22

19

Waive

 

 

Cam Atkinson: He looks to be continuing where he left off a year ago. He is producing and his shooting percentage is on par with his career average. However, Atkinson might have more to offer as his ice time, both overall and on the power play, are up significantly. With Columbus slowly getting healthier the conditions might be right to give Atkinson a small boost the rest of the way.

 

Nick Foligno: It is not surprising to see Foligno post strong numbers in a contract year. But he has gone nutty this year and finds himself among the league's elite. His bloated shooting percentage (21%) has a lot to do with that. Expect him to fall back somewhere between last year's rate (16%) and his career average (11%) in the remaining games. That will ultimately mean fewer goals.

 

*

 

Detroit

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

PPTOI

TOI

Shots

Status

 
 

ABDELKADER,JUSTIN

L

24

15

2:27

17.04

54

Sell

 

ANDERSSON,JOAKIM

C

23

3

0:06

12.66

29

Waive

 

CLEARY,DANIEL

R

7

2

0:00

9.66

8

Waive

 

DATSYUK,PAVEL

C

17

22

3:19

18.24

45

Sell

 

FRANZEN,JOHAN

C

22

18

3:12

16.14

56

Stand

 

GLENDENING,LUKE

C

28

4

0:05

14.22

35

Waive

 

HELM,DARREN

C

28

15

1:18

13.32

44

Stand

 

JURCO,TOMAS

R

25

10

2:02

11.94

44

Stand

 

MILLER,ANDREW

L

28

5

0:04

13.68

34

Waive

 

NYQUIST,GUSTAV

C

28

16

3:23

17.22

69

Buy

 

SHEAHAN,RILEY

C

28

15

2:41

14.28

46

Stand

 

TATAR,TOMAS

C

28

20

2:37

14.82

73

Stand

 

WEISS,STEPHEN

C

9

10

2:35

12.12

15

Sell

 

ZETTERBERG,HENRIK

L

28

24

3:37

19.26

90

Stand

 

 

Justin Abdelkader: Obviously, Abdelkader scoring on 13% of his shots is well above his career average. In every full year that he has spent in the NHL prior to this one he has never been above 7%. While this points to a regression down the stretch, it is worth noting that he is getting well over two minutes of ice time per night on the man advantage. All signs point to a career year which is not saying much considering that the bar is set at 28 points.

 

Pavel Datsyuk: Datsyuk has been well above the point-per-game mark largely because of his shooting percentage of almost 27%. While this will obviously drop back to a normal level, the more important issue is his health which has not been good in recent years. This is a good chance to take advantage of a hot start to get more stability in return.

 

Gustav Nyquist: For the second year in a row, Nyquist is scoring frequently and shooting very efficiently. While this may be his actual "normal" level, his four assists represent a number that will probably improve. Detroit being a team that scores often can only help.

 

Stephen Weiss: The return to health of Weiss and his impressive play has been a remarkable story. Looking at the bigger picture, this is a great time to sell Weiss. Not only is he scoring at an unsustainable rate, he is also a major health concern having missed a total of 106 contests since the end of the lockout.

 

*

 

Florida

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

PPTOI

TOI

Shots

Status

 
 

BARKOV,ALEKSANDER

C

19

4

2:25

16.44

30

Gamble

 

BERGENHEIM,SEAN

L

15

6

0:50

14.1

39

Stand

 

BJUGSTAD,NICK

C

25

17

2:06

16.56

69

Stand

 

BOLLAND,DAVE

C

4

0

1:29

15.96

3

Stand

 

BOYES,BRAD

R

25

13

2:08

15.6

56

Stand

 

FLEISCHMANN,TOMAS

L

23

6

1:02

14.16

41

Buy

 

GRIMALDI,ROCCO

C

7

1

0:23

12.24

18

Waive

 

HAYES,JIMMY

R

18

12

1:37

13.38

45

Buy

 

HUBERDEAU,JONATHAN

C

22

11

2:27

15.96

48

Buy

 

JOKINEN,JUSSI

L

24

14

2:33

15.72

40

Stand

 

KOPECKY,TOMAS

R

25

4

0:07

13.56

43

Waive

 

MACKENZIE,DEREK

C

25

4

0:17

12.9

22

Waive

 

PIRRI,BRANDON

C

11

4

1:11

14.58

29

Stand

 

THORNTON,SHAWN

L

22

2

0:02

9.72

29

Waive

 

TROCHECK,VINCENT

C

16

11

0:48

13.5

38

Stand

 

UPSHALL,SCOTTIE

R

17

7

1:15

14.76

25

Stand

 

 

Aleksander Barkov: Barkov is immensely talented and despite a slow start has the ability to produce much more. Unfortunately, the Panthers have a lot of bodies at the moment which has already impeded the progress of other young players.

 

Tomas Fleischmann: The last two years have been a disaster for Fleischmann. Fortunately things cannot get any worse and he has a history of producing excellent numbers. It is also possible that he gets traded at some point to help clear up the logjam up front. In a new environment he could thrive.

 

Jimmy Hayes: After struggling to get into the lineup, Hayes has emerged as a solid power winger. Now with six goals and 12 points in 18 games, he is producing fantasy-relevant numbers. Helping matters is the fact that he is getting decent power play minutes and is also shooting a ton. His current shooting percentage sits at a reasonable 13%.

 

Jonathan Huberdeau: Following a slow start to the campaign, Huberdeau has started correcting course with nine points in the last 12 games.  Still, he has just two goals and is clearly capable of putting more pucks in the net. He is shooting more than two shots per outing so it is only a matter of time.

 

*

 

Montreal

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

PPTOI

TOI

Shots

Status

 
 

ANDRIGHETTO,SVEN

R

1

1

1:02

11.58

1

Waive

 

BOURNIVAL,MICHAEL

L

2

0

0:06

6

2

Waive

 

BOWMAN,DRAYSON

L

3

0

0:00

6.54

0

Waive

 

DESHARNAIS,DAVID

C

29

15

2:16

17.04

33

Buy

 

ELLER,LARS

C

28

11

0:13

14.28

61

Sell

 

GALCHENYUK,ALEX

C

29

18

1:50

16.2

66

Stand

 

GALLAGHER,BRENDAN

R

29

15

1:59

15.66

79

Stand

 

MALHOTRA,MANNY

C

29

0

0:01

11.34

24

Waive

 

PACIORETTY,MAX

L

29

20

2:20

18.78

106

Stand

 

PARENTEAU,PIERRE

R

29

11

2:05

14.94

58

Stand

 

PLEKANEC,TOMAS

C

29

20

1:54

18.54

76

Stand

 

PRUST,BRANDON

L

29

7

0:07

12.96

28

Waive

 

SEKAC,JIRI

L

22

9

0:31

13.74

24

Stand

 

TANGRADI,ERIC

L

6

0

0:00

7.98

5

Waive

 

WEISE,DALE

R

26

10

0:00

11.1

35

Stand

 

 

David Desharnais: While not a frequent shooter or a frequent scorer, Desharnais has historically sported a strong shooting percentage. Provided that he is able to stick in his cushy role next to Max Pacioretty he will get plenty of ice time and opportunity to pot a few extra goals. This year's 6.1% is bound to go up.

 

Lars Eller: The talented Eller is having his second consecutive disappointing campaign. Inconsistency and questionable wingers have not helped. With Plekanec and Desharnais in the fold and with Galchenyuk auditioning occasionally for a spot down the middle it does not appear that Eller's situation will improve anytime soon.

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